Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LC says the he agrees with the Nam and he thinks that's probably the right solution. He also says that the 2nd landfall will be Brooklyn/Queens. done deal then. (expect landfall at Cape Cod after he says that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is really struggling right now. The eyewall has collapsed and is getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's looking like I will get very close to the eye or center of this.This track would be be my first time since 9/27/85. One of my most memorable weather experiences of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's looking like I will get very close to the eye or center of this.This track would be be my first time since 9/27/85. One of my most memorable weather experiences of all time. Bluewave what do you make of the hurricane looking like its weakening? And do you expect it to get healthier as the day goes on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If Irene weakens to a CAT 1, its not going to stronger than a TS by the time it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Joe Bastardi 140 mph cat 4 later today Bluewave what do you make of the hurricane looking like its weakening? And do you expect it to get healthier as the day goes on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If Irene weakens to a CAT 1, its not going to stronger than a TS by the time it gets up here. Agreed, NHC always plays catch up on these things because they can be tough to predict. If its 105 now and does not strengthen before it gets to NC it won't even be 85 mph off NJ as they currently have, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If Irene weakens to a CAT 1, its not going to stronger than a TS by the time it gets up here. It is supposed to gain strength later today and then when it rides up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Almost all of the models are showing some type of intensification once it gets north of VA beach which is probably related to jet stream intereaction, whch has been talked about, it remains to be seen exactly what happens but calling off the dogs at this point could prove to be a major mistake, the 12z early guidance is tightly clustered with a track very close to the 00z EC and 12z NAM comprimise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Agreed, NHC always plays catch up on these things because they can be tough to predict. If its 105 now and does not strengthen before it gets to NC it won't even be 85 mph off NJ as they currently have, This could be a saving grace for the eastern sea board, though if it does come up there as a TS, there will be a whole lot of weenie suicides lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It is supposed to gain strength later today and then when it rides up the coast. it was supposed to strenghten yesterday and last night and instead it weakened....the worst may not be realized up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This could be a saving grace for the eastern sea board, though if it does come up there as a TS, there will be a whole lot of weenie suicides lol. I've been wary of this since the start and been warning people this could go into the crapper. I was never sure how a storm rubbing the coast like that would maintain its strength and after seeing several storms NC bound the last decade weaken late as they approached land was in the back of my mind as well before even considering the effects the Delmarva, VA, and NJ would have on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It is supposed to gain strength later today and then when it rides up the coast. and supposed to be stronger than it is right now, a day ago it was going to be a CAT4 at this time. Instead we have a struggling CAT2 with no deep conection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This could be a saving grace for the eastern sea board, though if it does come up there as a TS, there will be a whole lot of weenie suicides lol. Keep it at below hurricane level at landfall and my atrocious 5% insurance deductible won't kick in! All joking aside, I still believe this will be a very damaging storm regardless. It's not like it will dissipate and with high water tables in my area, this will flood basements and even make trees topple more easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also guys, sometimes the IR sat image can be a little deceiving with the colors and oblong shapes. This is still a fine looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Katrina and Irene are replicas right now. If any of you think its safe to put your guard down then you have another thing coming. ^^^^^^^ Just for reference: Irene, currently: 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW. Katrina's maximum size, right before landfall: 64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 0NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also guys, sometimes the IR sat image can be a little deceiving with the colors and oblong shapes. This is still a fine looking storm. Latest recon is reporting complete collapse of the eye.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Katrina was a cat 5 less than 36hrs before landfall, it made landfall as a cat 2, we all saw what it did, a lot of people thought New Orleans and dodged a bullet, we all know how that turned out. Even if its a tropical storm when it gets up here, the water will have a long time to build up coming from that trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Keep in mind as well the large size can result in it being easier for dry air to be pulled into the system, this can be negated some by the large size too....same as how a small storm while shear/cooler waters can weaken it the small size can make it harder for dry air to be pulled in off the land mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A reminder there is a banter thread for the storm looks like crap, its weakening, nhc sucks comments that are already popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also guys, sometimes the IR sat image can be a little deceiving with the colors and oblong shapes. This is still a fine looking storm. Last few images on the visible show MAYBE an eye trying to form again....I don't know, I'm not making any predictions at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest recon is reporting complete collapse of the eye.... Theres a banter thread. I think this goes back to 110-115mph by next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the rain threat doesn't really change at all given the strength of the storm and unless you're talking about a major hurricane, the big story is the rain, flooding and storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting update from wxrisk 1410z recon -- 10 am MAX flight level winds UP to 110 knots -- 127 MPH wonder if the winds are beginning to catch up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've been wary of this since the start and been warning people this could go into the crapper. I was never sure how a storm rubbing the coast like that would maintain its strength and after seeing several storms NC bound the last decade weaken late as they approached land was in the back of my mind as well before even considering the effects the Delmarva, VA, and NJ would have on it. Donna was able to maintain strength after crossing Florida and hugging the east coast...NYC had a 113mph gust from Hazel making landfall way south of here...I'm worried about river flooding and downed trees everywhere even if it's only a tropical storm when it hits...A Scott Norwood track might save the city from the strongest winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on the potential (or lack thereof) for tornadoes as this works up the coast? is being in an unfavorable area for tornadoes still relevant with tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A reminder there is a banter thread for the storm looks like crap, its weakening, nhc sucks comments that are already popping up. I thought this was a live obs thread, which it seems like we are doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A reminder there is a banter thread for the storm looks like crap, its weakening, nhc sucks comments that are already popping up. These comments aren't banter they are observations. Irene is currently not looking good all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Check out the marine foecast for the LI sound west of Port Jefferson: Sun...Hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 50 to 70 kt. Gusts up to 70 kt...increasing to 90 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 13 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Check out for inshore ocean water. Wow: Sun...Hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 45 to 60 kt. Gusts up to 70 kt...increasing to 80 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 24 ft...building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on the potential (or lack thereof) for tornadoes as this works up the coast? is being in an unfavorable area for tornadoes still relevant with tropical systems? anyone? i haven't seen this discussed yet, perhaps because it's not an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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