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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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It's looking like I will get very close to the eye or center of this.This track would be be my first time since 9/27/85.

One of my most memorable weather experiences of all time.

Bluewave what do you make of the hurricane looking like its weakening? And do you expect it to get healthier as the day goes on?

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If Irene weakens to a CAT 1, its not going to stronger than a TS by the time it gets up here.

Agreed, NHC always plays catch up on these things because they can be tough to predict. If its 105 now and does not strengthen before it gets to NC it won't even be 85 mph off NJ as they currently have,

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Almost all of the models are showing some type of intensification once it gets north of VA beach which is probably related to jet stream intereaction, whch has been talked about, it remains to be seen exactly what happens but calling off the dogs at this point could prove to be a major mistake, the 12z early guidance is tightly clustered with a track very close to the 00z EC and 12z NAM comprimise.

track_early1.png

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Agreed, NHC always plays catch up on these things because they can be tough to predict. If its 105 now and does not strengthen before it gets to NC it won't even be 85 mph off NJ as they currently have,

This could be a saving grace for the eastern sea board, though if it does come up there as a TS, there will be a whole lot of weenie suicides lol.

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This could be a saving grace for the eastern sea board, though if it does come up there as a TS, there will be a whole lot of weenie suicides lol.

I've been wary of this since the start and been warning people this could go into the crapper. I was never sure how a storm rubbing the coast like that would maintain its strength and after seeing several storms NC bound the last decade weaken late as they approached land was in the back of my mind as well before even considering the effects the Delmarva, VA, and NJ would have on it.

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This could be a saving grace for the eastern sea board, though if it does come up there as a TS, there will be a whole lot of weenie suicides lol.

Keep it at below hurricane level at landfall and my atrocious 5% insurance deductible won't kick in!

All joking aside, I still believe this will be a very damaging storm regardless. It's not like it will dissipate and with high water tables in my area, this will flood basements and even make trees topple more easily.

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Katrina and Irene are replicas right now. If any of you think its safe to put your guard down then you have another thing coming.

^^^^^^^

Just for reference:

Irene, currently:

64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.

Katrina's maximum size, right before landfall:

64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW.

34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 0NW.

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Katrina was a cat 5 less than 36hrs before landfall, it made landfall as a cat 2, we all saw what it did, a lot of people thought New Orleans and dodged a bullet, we all know how that turned out. Even if its a tropical storm when it gets up here, the water will have a long time to build up coming from that trajectory.

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Keep in mind as well the large size can result in it being easier for dry air to be pulled into the system, this can be negated some by the large size too....same as how a small storm while shear/cooler waters can weaken it the small size can make it harder for dry air to be pulled in off the land mass.

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I've been wary of this since the start and been warning people this could go into the crapper. I was never sure how a storm rubbing the coast like that would maintain its strength and after seeing several storms NC bound the last decade weaken late as they approached land was in the back of my mind as well before even considering the effects the Delmarva, VA, and NJ would have on it.

Donna was able to maintain strength after crossing Florida and hugging the east coast...NYC had a 113mph gust from Hazel making landfall way south of here...I'm worried about river flooding and downed trees everywhere even if it's only a tropical storm when it hits...A Scott Norwood track might save the city from the strongest winds...

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A reminder there is a banter thread for the storm looks like crap, its weakening, nhc sucks comments that are already popping up.

These comments aren't banter they are observations. Irene is currently not looking good all things considered.

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Check out the marine foecast for the LI sound west of Port Jefferson:

Sun...Hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 50 to 70 kt. Gusts up to 70 kt...increasing to 90 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 13 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Check out for inshore ocean water. Wow:

Sun...Hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 45 to 60 kt. Gusts up to 70 kt...increasing to 80 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 24 ft...building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

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