SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Starting to look like we're really gonna need to hope for serious land disruption and dry air entrainment as this moves up the coast. Either that or hope for a NW jog just before it comes into NC so that this due northward component is over land and not just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like 974, right off Cape May at hour 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hour 54 hugging the Jersey coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like she is going to come right over KNYC at 51-54 hours. A ridiculous amount of water would be forced up in NY harbour, southern coast of strong island. This would be a clean second land fall, NO LAND interaction of the absolute center after NC. At 54 hours, just to the right of NYC over western LI, SW CT, and you can see the center contract as it hits land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like she is going to come right over KNYC at 51-54 hours. A ridiculous amount of water would be forced up in NY harbour, southern coast of strong island. This would be a clean second land fall, NO LAND interaction of the absolute center after NC. Everything is following the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's pretty much the "devastation" track. It's scary to see models continually showing this this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 She is a hair right of the euro but at this range its pretty damn close, especially for the NAM. I would say its spot on to gloria for land fall, maybe a tick to the left on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ETA is also over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The one plus seems to be the timing on this run-near low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Zooming in on the NAM, lanDfall looks to be West Islip Long Island then up into the Town of Fairfield CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Much, much slower, its not out of here till Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Could someone post the text from the 12Z NAM when its avalible thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 60hr NAM QPF, and its still raining in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM is almost spot on with euro, maybe 5-10 miles east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z Nam shows 7 + inches of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Insane, have they ever agreed that much in their placement of a wintertime coastal low? Usually we don't get a true consensus until 24 hours before and even then sometimes they don't fully agree until the storm is here. NAM is almost spot on with euro, maybe 5-10 miles east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 9z srefs mean takes it over nyc as well http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Concensus is growing STRONGLY for a euro type landfall. Anywhere from NENJ to Eastern Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So long island looks to be getting sustained hurricane winds with higher gusts it looks like and the city close to that. This is gonna be one for the record book folks it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Much, much slower, its not out of here till Monday Thats sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Winds down to 105...why is it weakening...I thought over gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM/Euro are pretty much the worst case scenario track for the NJ/NY area -- track along the immediate coast, with little land interaction until it reaches the NJ shore. A 50 mile jog further west would be a big help in terms of getting those winds lower, but rainfall looks to be excessive either way. Relatively slow moving, powerhouse hurricane; this may be as bad as Floyd in many locations w/ 6-10" of rain on already saturated grounds. I'm amazed at the strong consensus we've had for a track basically right over NYC; however, hurricanes have a history of last minute surprises. Wouldn't shock me if the center comes up through W NJ or through C/E LI. Have to prepare for the worst either way...which most of us have not experienced anything like this in our lives (assuming it occurs as progged). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any idea what time would be the best time to have a place to hunker down? Saturday night? Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM/Euro are pretty much the worst case scenario track for the NJ/NY area -- track along the immediate coast, with little land interaction until it reaches the NJ shore. A 50 mile jog further west would be a big help in terms of getting those winds lower, but rainfall looks to be excessive either way. Relatively slow moving, powerhouse hurricane; this may be as bad as Floyd in many locations w/ 6-10" of rain on already saturated grounds. I'm amazed at the strong consensus we've had for a track basically right over NYC; however, hurricanes have a history of last minute surprises. Wouldn't shock me if the center comes up through W NJ or through C/E LI. Have to prepare for the worst either way...which most of us have not experienced anything like this in our lives (assuming it occurs as progged). Welcome back bro, where have you been? Your analysis has been greatly missed. I agree 100000% with your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 11am advisory, pressure up another mb to 946 and winds down to 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 From the NHC... FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.5N 74.1WMAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 60NW.34 KT...270NE 240SE 140SW 120NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is strugling right now to maintain deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Outflow looks like its getting better further north...so might strengthen later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welcome back bro, where have you been? Your analysis has been greatly missed. I agree 100000% with your thoughts. Thanks man, just been a real busy week moving back to Villanova. We're under a hurricane warning even out here (I think the furthest west town under one), so I'll be riding out the storm far from the ocean safe in PA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LC says the he agrees with the Nam and he thinks that's probably the right solution. He also says that the 2nd landfall will be Brooklyn/Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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