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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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The oddest thing personally is having just been to Atlantic City and spent alot of time in a sports bar in the little strip mall they built into the Atlantic there will be eery knowing that thing could be gone in just 72 hours.

I was just in AC Sunday through Tuesday. Like I said in the banter thread yesterday, I am glad I got my last stay at the casinos in before Irene.

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I don't even want to know how Wildwood is going to look after this Hurricane.:axe:

Ugh, I know. My dad and brother are down there right now taking care of our place in the Crest, which is only separated from Sunset Lake & the marshes by one house. It's going to get ugly down there.

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Looks like Western LI into Western CT consensus there

Yeah, I would say the landfall zone right now with the guidance in hand is a hair left of NYC to Western CT/LI. That is extremely narrow and focussed this far out, if it ends of verifying, hats off to the models.

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Euro and UK have a Long Island landfall..this takes it into Albany..it's out on it's own..like it was with a Miami landfall 3 days ago

Not LI.

Hour 63, euro has Irene Just off Atlantic City area:

2ahrvrc.gif

Hour 66, it has landfall near Sandy Hook:

spc309.jpg

Hour 69, center is over SWCT.

2hz1t8m.jpg

The track on euro is Sandy Hook, right thru NYC and then thru SWCT.

Possibly the worst track that is possible.

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Not LI.

Hour 63, euro has Irene Just off Atlantic City area:

Hour 66, it has landfall near Sandy Hook:

Hour 69, center is over SWCT.

The track on euro is Sandy Hook, right thru NYC and then thru SWCT.

Possibly the worst track that is possible.

Yeah, that would essentially be worst case scenario for you and me. You could take a picture of the southern eye wall and I could take a picture of the northern eye wall.

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Even with a landfall to the west or to the east the size of the wind field is extremely large, and will be felt throughout the entire area.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

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Latest Hurricane models

Hurricane models

120kt4w.png

Looks like the majority is near NYC.

Tropical Storm force winds

instantly toss the ancient BAM members and the LBAR

you're left with a consensus of a coast hugger (the gfdl members can be tossed, too)

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Basically yes, maybe up to 100. That's why if landfall ends up over central LI I'm surprised they are saying 70-90 or higher for the city. Maybe 50-70 sustained with higher gusts even with the wind field expanded out 300 miles from the center.

Correct me if I'm wrong though but is irene suppose to make landfall as a 80-90 mph sustained hurricane?

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Either way you cut it..any model you look at...this seems like a very very serious storm for NYC. Something many of us in our 20's or even later have never seen.

Even older like my father who was through gloria. I think this storm has a good chance to rival that easily for long island, gonna have much stronger winds and the surge is gonna be worse too. This storm may not be witnesses again for another 50+ years

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Even older like my father who was through gloria. I think this storm has a good chance to rival that easily for long island, gonna have much stronger winds and the surge is gonna be worse too. This storm may not be witnesses again for another 50+ years

Wow am I old if I remember what your father remembers lol. I experienced Gloria in SE Monmouth County, NJ, I was 7 years old and recall it like yesterday. That was a crazy storm but December 1992 and even March 1993 topped Gloria as far as winds in SE Monmouth. I know this is a hurricane but I wonder if we experience December 1992 winds similar to those at the Jersey Shore or worse in and around NYC with Irene. We'll see.

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12z Nam through 36 is further west than the previous runs.

Not surprising that it is coming in line with the EURO/GFS camp. we are looking at extremely tight clustering of the reliable models inside 60 hours from just left to pretty much just right of KNYC. Scary stuff.

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Gloria is the only storm of tropical nature where I can really remember getting good winds. Most of the time being inland, even by a few miles means unimpressive winds. Dec '92 on the other hand is probably the greatest wind i've seen outside of a thunderstorm or really strong cold front. Plus we had 2 distinct rounds of heavy rain and wind with a break in between, then snow at the end.

Wow am I old if I remember what your father remembers lol. I experienced Gloria in SE Monmouth County, NJ, I was 7 years old and recall it like yesterday. That was a crazy storm but December 1992 and even March 1993 topped Gloria as far as winds in SE Monmouth. I know this is a hurricane but I wonder if we experience December 1992 winds similar to those at the Jersey Shore or worse in and around NYC with Irene. We'll see.

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Posted this on main storm surge threat, but I think NY/NJ has serious surge issues if the Euro verifies.

Euro 10 meter maps from AccuWx PPV don't have a scale, whether winds are knots are mph. But 10 meter onshore sustained winds were in excess of 75 something at 60 hours, if that is knots I'd imagine absolutely sick surge on the Jersey Shore. Hour 66 onshore winds into Long Island at 65. Knots or mph, I don't know. But a long fetch as well. 12Z and 18Z Sunday.

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