dbc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The oddest thing personally is having just been to Atlantic City and spent alot of time in a sports bar in the little strip mall they built into the Atlantic there will be eery knowing that thing could be gone in just 72 hours. I was just in AC Sunday through Tuesday. Like I said in the banter thread yesterday, I am glad I got my last stay at the casinos in before Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like Western LI into Western CT consensus there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LOL @ the BAMS, what the hell is that? BAMS is the NGM of tropical models. It does ok with shear but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't even want to know how Wildwood is going to look after this Hurricane. Ugh, I know. My dad and brother are down there right now taking care of our place in the Crest, which is only separated from Sunset Lake & the marshes by one house. It's going to get ugly down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like Western LI into Western CT consensus there Yeah, I would say the landfall zone right now with the guidance in hand is a hair left of NYC to Western CT/LI. That is extremely narrow and focussed this far out, if it ends of verifying, hats off to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro and UK have a Long Island landfall..this takes it into Albany..it's out on it's own..like it was with a Miami landfall 3 days ago Not LI. Hour 63, euro has Irene Just off Atlantic City area: Hour 66, it has landfall near Sandy Hook: Hour 69, center is over SWCT. The track on euro is Sandy Hook, right thru NYC and then thru SWCT. Possibly the worst track that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is now looking extremely healthy on IR, with dry air mostly evacuated it seems. I think Irene could still increase to a mid-range Cat 3 (120-125) before landfall on NC. I also anticipate Irene will still be ~100mph by the second landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not LI. Hour 63, euro has Irene Just off Atlantic City area: Hour 66, it has landfall near Sandy Hook: Hour 69, center is over SWCT. The track on euro is Sandy Hook, right thru NYC and then thru SWCT. Possibly the worst track that is possible. Yeah, that would essentially be worst case scenario for you and me. You could take a picture of the southern eye wall and I could take a picture of the northern eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow. 12z early guidance is right over NYC to western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LOL @ the BAMS, what the hell is that? I have no clue what this model is seeing. It is totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The RSM for FWIW. It looks pretty idential in track to the Euro, that is a little freaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even with a landfall to the west or to the east the size of the wind field is extremely large, and will be felt throughout the entire area. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong though but is irene suppose to make landfall as a 80-90 mph sustained hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 9z SREF. Right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look at the SREF mean, locked into Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong though but is irene suppose to make landfall as a 80-90 mph sustained hurricane? NHC has that now, I would say thats a decent range to guess right now, we'll have to see what it does before it gets to NC and what impacts NC has on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest Hurricane models Hurricane models Looks like the majority is near NYC. Tropical Storm force winds instantly toss the ancient BAM members and the LBAR you're left with a consensus of a coast hugger (the gfdl members can be tossed, too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A great way to see Irene's track so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Basically yes, maybe up to 100. That's why if landfall ends up over central LI I'm surprised they are saying 70-90 or higher for the city. Maybe 50-70 sustained with higher gusts even with the wind field expanded out 300 miles from the center. Correct me if I'm wrong though but is irene suppose to make landfall as a 80-90 mph sustained hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Either way you cut it..any model you look at...this seems like a very very serious storm for NYC. Something many of us in our 20's or even later have never seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Either way you cut it..any model you look at...this seems like a very very serious storm for NYC. Something many of us in our 20's or even later have never seen. Even older like my father who was through gloria. I think this storm has a good chance to rival that easily for long island, gonna have much stronger winds and the surge is gonna be worse too. This storm may not be witnesses again for another 50+ years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z Nam through 36 is further west than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hour 42 of NAM shows center off shore of Virginia. NAM is definetely west of 6z and 0z, so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even older like my father who was through gloria. I think this storm has a good chance to rival that easily for long island, gonna have much stronger winds and the surge is gonna be worse too. This storm may not be witnesses again for another 50+ years Wow am I old if I remember what your father remembers lol. I experienced Gloria in SE Monmouth County, NJ, I was 7 years old and recall it like yesterday. That was a crazy storm but December 1992 and even March 1993 topped Gloria as far as winds in SE Monmouth. I know this is a hurricane but I wonder if we experience December 1992 winds similar to those at the Jersey Shore or worse in and around NYC with Irene. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z Nam through 36 is further west than the previous runs. Not surprising that it is coming in line with the EURO/GFS camp. we are looking at extremely tight clustering of the reliable models inside 60 hours from just left to pretty much just right of KNYC. Scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Gloria is the only storm of tropical nature where I can really remember getting good winds. Most of the time being inland, even by a few miles means unimpressive winds. Dec '92 on the other hand is probably the greatest wind i've seen outside of a thunderstorm or really strong cold front. Plus we had 2 distinct rounds of heavy rain and wind with a break in between, then snow at the end. Wow am I old if I remember what your father remembers lol. I experienced Gloria in SE Monmouth County, NJ, I was 7 years old and recall it like yesterday. That was a crazy storm but December 1992 and even March 1993 topped Gloria as far as winds in SE Monmouth. I know this is a hurricane but I wonder if we experience December 1992 winds similar to those at the Jersey Shore or worse in and around NYC with Irene. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The NAM looks a tad slower, the heart of the storm doesn't arrive until hr 42. The eye is still down by VA beach hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Posted this on main storm surge threat, but I think NY/NJ has serious surge issues if the Euro verifies. Euro 10 meter maps from AccuWx PPV don't have a scale, whether winds are knots are mph. But 10 meter onshore sustained winds were in excess of 75 something at 60 hours, if that is knots I'd imagine absolutely sick surge on the Jersey Shore. Hour 66 onshore winds into Long Island at 65. Knots or mph, I don't know. But a long fetch as well. 12Z and 18Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 At 48 hours, NAM has the inner isobar just about touch atlantic city so the center is still completely over water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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