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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part II


earthlight

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Agreed, thinking the city should see 60-70 sustained with gusts to 90.

Winds above ground could hit 110-120 or so (gusts) as you get several hundred feet in the air, though... we could be looking at tons and tons of windows blowing out in the areas with skyscrapers. The wind tunnel effect is going to create localized street gusts to cat 3 force as well (one of the best spots for observing this that I've seen is on 60th between Time Warner and the apartment complex next door--even when it's only 30-40mph winds there is a constant barrage of 60-70mph gusts right in one spot).

Tishman Speyer (the company that owns the chrysler bldg) has instructed us to move everything away from windows today (we are approx 750ft above the street - 50th floor).

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A track right up the NJ coastline and then landfall into western or central LI is higly likely, this storm is not a joke, TS force winds may reach as far inland as PA

Agree. This storm is huge and you don't have to be close to the eye to get the strong winds.

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Tishman Speyer (the company that owns the chrysler bldg) has instructed us to move everything away from windows today (we are approx 750ft above the street - 50th floor).

Worse than the winds will still be the surge, IMO... street flooding alone is possible if we see the 12" of rain forecast by HPC, but the surge is going to be unreal. Governor's Island is going to become part of NY Harbor as will most of Lower Manhattan... IKEA is going to be totaled, as will the southern thirds of BK and Queens. Just an insane flooding situation about to occur and I wonder how long the subways are going to be out of commission... they will certainly be inundated (aka awesome photography opportunities as well).

I doubt the 9/11 memorial will open on time due to this, as well. The WTC waterfalls won't be able to function if the pools themselves are full....

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Well if you do want to see catastrophic surge you do want her to speed up and come through in the morning. The afternoon isn't going to cut it, flooding won't reach its potential.

I do think it's likely we see landfall earlier rather than later, as forward momentum of tropical systems is typically underforecast the further north you go. Still, landfall is two days away so it isn't easy to pinpoint which tide Irene will arrive at just yet.

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Well if you do want to see catastrophic surge you do want her to speed up and come through in the morning. The afternoon isn't going to cut it, flooding won't reach its potential.

You don't need to be in the crosshairs of the eyewall to have surges. Its going to come in multiple waves and that imcludes 8am and 8pm. I expect the cross island parkway right by the bayside marina to be covered in water. I was just looking at a graphic twc had up. The li sound, north shore, all of south shore ct faces the most amount of water buildup because once the water gets into the sound its going to have a hard time leaving.

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I do think it's likely we see landfall earlier rather than later, as forward momentum of tropical systems is typically underforecast the further north you go. Still, landfall is two days away so it isn't easy to pinpoint which tide Irene will arrive at just yet.

Yea, I can see her speeding up for the same reasons. The whole evolution of this storm is strange, however, so I wouldn't rule out anything at this point.

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You don't need to be in the crosshairs of the eyewall to have surges. Its going to come in multiple waves and that imcludes 8am and 8pm. I expect the cross island parkway right by the bayside marina to be covered in water. I was just looking at a graphic twc had up. The li sound, north shore, all of south shore ct faces the most amount of water buildup because once the water gets into the sound its going to have a hard time leaving.

The cross island floods just from the rain lol let alone surge so I will agree with you. True the surge is not just one push but to get the most surge you do want her to be coming into our area just as high tide occurs.

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The cross island floods just from the rain lol let alone surge so I will agree with you. True the surge is not just one push but to get the most surge you do want her to be coming into our area just as high tide occurs.

I wonder if it would be open and a good idea to go to the bayside marina Sunday morning to check things out...

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I wonder if it would be open and a good idea to go to the bayside marina Sunday morning to check things out...

Not sure how high surge potential is in Little Neck Bay but I wouldn't want to be there lol. I guess you can go by foot but the highway will almost certainly be underwater surge or no surge.

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Doubt the tide will have a chance to receded during that time with strong easterly flow.

It probably won't but when the water is naturally is 6 feet lower all Irene is going to do is create one long duration high tide plus a few feet on top of that. If she would come in right at high tide you'd get the max surge.

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Hight tides around our area for Sunday:

Western LI Sound: 10:52am + 11:07pm

Eastern LI Sound: 11:14am + 11:33pm

Jamaica Bay: 7:44am + 7:57pm

Rockaway Beach area: 7:35am + 7:48pm

Jones Beach area: 7:22am + 7:35am

Hamptons area: 6:51am + 7:04 pm

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Its gotta be out to lunch at this point, even though the UK and EC support it somewhat, I think those models are too far west as well. It has been consistent though with that track.

Euro and UK have a Long Island landfall..this takes it into Albany..it's out on it's own..like it was with a Miami landfall 3 days ago

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The oddest thing personally is having just been to Atlantic City and spent alot of time in a sports bar in the little strip mall they built into the Atlantic there will be eery knowing that thing could be gone in just 72 hours.

I don't even want to know how Wildwood is going to look after this Hurricane.:axe:

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Agree. This storm is huge and you don't have to be close to the eye to get the strong winds.

What wind speed should we expect in Northern NJ? I am concerned about the new satellite dish we just put on the roof this passed week. I might have to get up there and do some reenforcement.

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Latest Hurricane models

Hurricane models

120kt4w.png

Looks like the majority is near NYC.

What wind speed should we expect in Northern NJ? I am concerned about the new satellite dish we just put on the roof this passed week. I might have to get up there and do some reenforcement.

Tropical Storm force winds

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