bikerman262 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Coney Island hospital is being evacuated as we speak. They are doing the same in Staten Island. Manhattan VA and NYU Langone Medical Center are both being partially evacuated starting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Coney Island hospital is being evacuated as we speak. They are doing the same in Staten Island. When does NYC mass transport shut down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When does NYC mass transport shut down? How bad do you think storm surge would get for the city even with a track to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When does NYC mass transport shut down? They are going to decide tomorrow afternoon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How bad do you think storm surge would get for the city even with a track to the east? small 2-4 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If Irene is an 80mph storm then we will NOT have hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles like some here saying. Since when does a tropical system extend out it's most powerful winds which are usually found right around the center and only in the NE quad 90+ miles? Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If Irene is an 80mph storm then we will NOT have hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles like some here saying. Since when does a tropical system extend out it's most powerful winds which are usually found right around the center and only in the NE quad 90+ miles? Never. When it reaches 40N it almost certainly will not have that sort of radius. You can get hurricane force winds on the west side of these as they get to LI or New England but those are mostly in the form of a few gusts. Its the east side where the hurricane force winds occur and I'm not sure if its ever quite 90 miles any longer by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 8am advisory still has 110 mphs...I'd guess 75-80 by the time it gets up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pressure is up 3 mb 8am advisory still has 110 mphs...I'd guess 75-80 by the time it gets up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 8am advisory still has 110 mphs...I'd guess 75-80 by the time it gets up here... If it takes the GFS track than I think thats close to what it will be. If it takes the NAM track its got a shot at being 85-95 still because it would have been less hampered by the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Euro or UKIE track and I don't think it would be a hurricane by the time it reached LI, there would have been way too much land interference, but it would probably be a very strong TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 8am advisory still has 110 mphs...I'd guess 75-80 by the time it gets up here... Models have Irene strengthening today. With such a low pressure, winds have a chance of rapidly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 8am advisory still has 110 mphs...I'd guess 75-80 by the time it gets up here... That's what a lot of people are predicting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Models have Irene strengthening today. With such a low pressure, winds have a chance of rapidly increasing. Irene has been having trouble getting her self organized. I'm actually surprised that she didn't pop up to a high category 3 weak 4 yesterday when it looked like she was finally forming a closed off and clearing put eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW, JB is predicting 80-100 mph winds for the metro area. Bill Evans and Mike Woods also have the area in the 75-95 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Me too...i know it would be dangerous to assume strengthening is done but at the same time it seems to be having trouble Irene has been having trouble getting her self organized. I'm actually surprised that she didn't pop up to a high category 3 weak 4 yesterday when it looked like she was finally forming a closed off and clearing put eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not expecting sustained winds over 50 kts in the city. Probably 60 kts at the shore on Long Island. The big story you guys need to be concerned about is surge. I don't think I am hyping when I say this will be the worst surge event in the last century on LI east to Narragansett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some of these models that have Irene strengthening when she's off our coast are very perplexing. Storms have trouble maintaining their out to sea intensity when they come ashore on the Gulf or Carolina coasts. Why would a storm pick up strength off our coast? Do we have 90 degree bathwater south of Long Island and I didn't know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not expecting sustained winds over 50 kts in the city. Probably 60 kts at the shore on Long Island. The big story you guys need to be concerned about is surge. I don't think I am hyping when I say this will be the worst surge event in the last century on LI east to Narragansett. ok...even 40ktt sustained winds brings down a ton of trees...i dont think people realize that...an hour of 40kt sustained even, a lot of trees coming down, esp w the muddy ground...plus gusts...best case scenario...massive tree loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some of these models that have Irene strengthening when she's off our coast are very perplexing. Storms have trouble maintaining their out to sea intensity when they come ashore on the Gulf or Carolina coasts. Why would a storm pick up strength off our coast? Do we have 90 degree bathwater south of Long Island and I didn't know? The trough/jetstream to the north comes into a collision course with Irene. It gives Irene a extra shot in the arm and doesn't let her to weaken when she's coming up 40N. Cantore was talking about this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some of these models that have Irene strengthening when she's off our coast are very perplexing. Storms have trouble maintaining their out to sea intensity when they come ashore on the Gulf or Carolina coasts. Why would a storm pick up strength off our coast? Do we have 90 degree bathwater south of Long Island and I didn't know? wasn't there some talk of enhancement by some sort of jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not expecting sustained winds over 50 kts in the city. Probably 60 kts at the shore on Long Island. The big story you guys need to be concerned about is surge. I don't think I am hyping when I say this will be the worst surge event in the last century on LI east to Narragansett. 60mph sustained gusts 85-90 seems plausible for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 00z EC has Irene dropping below 920MB in 24 hours, highly unlikely and it should probably be discounted, the 06z GFS follows the NHC very well, which is a big hit for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some of these models that have Irene strengthening when she's off our coast are very perplexing. Storms have trouble maintaining their out to sea intensity when they come ashore on the Gulf or Carolina coasts. Why would a storm pick up strength off our coast? Do we have 90 degree bathwater south of Long Island and I didn't know? Some mets have explained it as interaction with an upper level piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 0z Euro ensemble mean. It looks like it has the low on central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 With a setup like this, and such a large windfield, the city would likely still see wind close to Hurricane strength even with a landfall into the twin forks. The wind would be accelerated through the buildings as well, I'm suprised that aspect hasn't been mentioned much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The trough/jetstream to the north comes into a collision course with Irene. It gives Irene a extra shot in the arm and doesn't let her to weaken when she's coming up 40N. Cantore was talking about this yesterday. Is this the first time this is happening? Think back and realize that we have never seen a hurricance pick up strength right before it makes landfall at almost 41N no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A track right up the NJ coastline and then landfall into western or central LI is higly likely, this storm is not a joke, TS force winds may reach as far inland as PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 60mph sustained gusts 85-90 seems plausible for the city. Agreed, thinking the city should see 60-70 sustained with gusts to 90. Winds above ground could hit 110-120 or so (gusts) as you get several hundred feet in the air, though... we could be looking at tons and tons of windows blowing out in the areas with skyscrapers. The wind tunnel effect is going to create localized street gusts to cat 3 force as well (one of the best spots for observing this that I've seen is on 60th between Time Warner and the apartment complex next door--even when it's only 30-40mph winds there is a constant barrage of 60-70mph gusts right in one spot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is this the first time this is happening? Think back and realize that we have never seen a hurricance pick up strength right before it makes landfall at almost 41N no less. Actually thats exactly it. Cantore mentioned we haven't seen the trough dig like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is this the first time this is happening? Think back and realize that we have never seen a hurricance pick up strength right before it makes landfall at almost 41N no less. yea...agreed...although i think the "perfect storm" was the merger of a hurricane and piece of energy from the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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