nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NYC prepares to shutdown the largest transportaion system in the country, hospitals in zone a start evacuation at 8am source channel 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There are 3 scenarios whereby this could still work out relatively good...the most likely and the one I still think may happen is the center comes in a good 50-60 miles east of most of the consensus right now. This would produce 50-60 mph wind gusts across alot of NYC and western LI but would likely minimize tree damage and power outages. The 2nd possibility is the storm weakens either due to NC land interaction or simply continues to slowly weaken from now until it reaches NC, gets there as maybe only a 100 mph storm and is a 65-75 mph system upon reaching LI. The least likely is this takes a harder right turn than anyone expects and misses. Agreed on 50 to 60mph winds for nyc not the 60 to 80 I have been hearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Agreed on 50 to 60mph winds for nyc not the 60 to 80 I have been hearing It depends on the strength of Irene when it hits the area . Alot of people are forecasting a Cat 1 up here. Bill read said before that hurricane winds will extend 90 miles out. That is insane . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't know how old many of you guys are but, i am telling you- this whole thing is scaring the living **** out of me... I was in Dix Hills, in 1985 - ya i was only 8 years old, but I remember the extensive damage out here.. If this storm is anywhere close to Gloria we are so screwed.. The tree damage is going to be immense. Places just west of the Nassau/Suffolk border did not have the intense winds that places to our east had in Hurricane Gloria.. Check for yourself - look at the highest gusts in Gloria for JFK, LGA etc... If Bill Evans is right and 80+ mph winds comes to locations west of where they did in Gloria - this is going to turn out to be a mega disaster.. As CAT5Andrew and others have stated- our trees up in the Northeast or NOT designed for these types of winds... If this storm plays out in the METROPOLITAN area as some believe it may - Sunday is going to be a very scary day.... I'm scared for the many people I know who own boats. Some of these things cost in the upper 6 figure range these days. Without a doubt some of them may lose them completely if we get a bad storm surge out of this and a few have said they are going to try and anchor out in the bays along the south shore to try and minimize the damage...I'm not sure this is the safest idea either. I was also thinking of some people I know who's houses are just surrounded by trees, some of them in northern Nassau County. I've told them its probably a good idea to go somewhere else during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The Belt Parkway ( right near the Verrazano bridge ) is going to take a severe beating. The parkway took a beating in that strong nor'easter that we saw in March of 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A landfall east of Long Beach would not bring anything worse then 50-60mph for NYC. But will have higher gusts mixed in and a ton of rain. A euro/UKIE scenario of landfall just west of NYC is the worst case for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A landfall east of Long Beach would not bring anything worse then 50-60mph for NYC. But will have higher gusts mixed in and a ton of rain. A euro/UKIE scenario of landfall just west if NYC is the worst case for NYC. Uptons only forecasting 50-65 with gust to 85 for my area east of long island so yeah seems right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The worst will be Sunday morning into the afternoon. Finally my craved daytime storm-- now let this hold for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A landfall east of Long Beach would not bring anything worse then 50-60mph for NYC. But will have higher gusts mixed in and a ton of rain. A euro/UKIE scenario of landfall just west if NYC is the worst case for NYC. Yep. If the center goes east of you (which is looking like it will) then that's the "best" case scenario for NYC. Doubtful there will be Cat 1 force winds in the city. Still bad enough with 50-60mph though. Eastern LI is in for it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A landfall east of Long Beach would not bring anything worse then 50-60mph for NYC. But will have higher gusts mixed in and a ton of rain. A euro/UKIE scenario of landfall just west if NYC is the worst case for NYC. I dont know if you can really say that man-- if this has a huge wind field like Donna=-- which brought a 93 mph gust to LGA and effects similar to Dec 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I dont know if you can really say that man-- if this has a huge wind field like Donna=-- which brought a 93 mph gust to LGA and effects similar to Dec 92. That was probably due to the funneling effect and that has to be watched closely. There have been storms where JFK never gusted over 45 mph yet LGA was regularly over 60 mph...we saw that in the 93 Blizzard. Generally LGA is most prone to the funnel effect on storms coming due north along the coast, a slight NE movement to the system can usually prevent it. This is the main reason the EC scenario and probably even the 06Z GFS are very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Based on the 6z GFS western Nassau should easily gust to 80 (SW at any rate.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That was probably due to the funneling effect and that has to be watched closely. There have been storms where JFK never gusted over 45 mph yet LGA was regularly over 60 mph...we saw that in the 93 Blizzard. Generally LGA is most prone to the funnel effect on storms coming due north along the coast, a slight NE movement to the system can usually prevent it. This is the main reason the EC scenario and probably even the 06Z GFS are very bad. I wonder if something like March 2010 might come into play too-- we had gusts close to 80 in that one also. But yeah, storms like Dec 92 and Donna, LGA had the highest wind gusts in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z gefs has the low cutting through western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup. Anyone east of Long Beach has to prepare. The damage will be massive on Suffolk County. Models can still all shift west and come in line with the euro/UKIE/GGEM camp but an educated guess would put Irene near the Gloria landfall. But even with a Gloria type landfall, the effects towards NYC would be much worse. Irene is bigger and also has incredible rains. Even with 45-60mph sustained winds, some of the rain bands will have gusts to over hurricane force. Also, remember that the highest surge isn't just east of the eye but also just north of the eye. The topography of the south shore dictates that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z gefs has the low cutting through western LI. Farther west than Freeport? Aren't ensembles usually east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am not downplaying this event. NYC will have significant damage. But the big time damage will most likely be from Fire Island to Montauk. I'm talking houses near the water being in danger of collapse, days of power outages, thousands of trees down, etc. Meh, I hope no one gets that. All we really want is several hours of wind and rain lol. I doubt anyone sees 100 mph gusts because of the slow movement of the storm and it will be in a weakened state by then. Max winds in our region will probably be around 80.... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also, remember that the highest surge isn't just east of the eye but also just north of the eye. The topography of the south shore dictates that. Yeah, I agree. The immediate coastal south shore, from Brooklyn to Montauk is in danger of major coastal surge flooding. Major. That's if the NAM is wrong. NAM is very east. I suspect nam will correct west on it's next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am not downplaying this event. NYC will have significant damage. But the big time damage will most likely be from Fire Island to Montauk. I'm talking houses near the water being in danger of collapse, days of power outages, thousands of trees down, etc. agreed eastern long island is going to have a world of problems, I think NYC escapes with 50-60 mph winds and limited surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am not downplaying this event. NYC will have significant damage. But the big time damage will most likely be from Fire Island to Montauk. I'm talking houses near the water being in danger of collapse, days of power outages, thousands of trees down, etc. Agree strongly. Winds will far apart pretty quick with the frictional effects, weakening of the storm, and right of City landfall. The coastal flooding and rain threat however will be almost guaranteed unless you get a 00z nam track way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Meh, I hope no one gets that. All we really want is several hours of wind and rain lol. I doubt anyone sees 100 mph gusts because of the slow movement of the storm and it will be in a weakened state by then. Max winds in our region will probably be around 80.... we'll see The homes on the water from Fire Island to especially Montauk are in danger. Montauk's shores has homes 30' off the water. Those houses took a beating during this past winter's nor'easter. My bosses home in Montauk, lost it's bulkhead, had waves push thru the home and destroy the 1st floor. 3 homes down the road were pushed off their foundation. That area is in trouble for complete devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Experimental GFS with the new initialization scheme. Right over sungreeks house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Agree strongly. Winds will far apart pretty quick with the frictional effects, weakening of the storm, and right of City landfall. The coastal flooding and rain threat however will be almost guaranteed unless you get a 00z nam track way east. If the EURO/UKIE/GGEM landfall of NENJ to Queens is correct, NYC will be devastated. Especially south shores of Queens, Brooklyn, coastal Jersey off Sandy Hook and all of Staten Island. SWCT will have major damage with any landfall west of eastern Queens as well. Usually I would never go against an agreement of euro/UKIE/GGEM. Euro seems locked in with a landfall from Mid Jersey to west of NYC and has full support from 2 major model. In the winter, we would lock it in with that combo. I suspect a shift west might be coming from the rest of the suite. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z Euro track from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Experimental GFS with the new initialization scheme. Right over sungreeks house Direct hit NYC again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That track from the euro would devestate long island with winds in excess of 85+mph, torrential rain, insane storm surge and lots of people without power for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Steve d-Irene appears to be strengthening again as eye wall replacement is done and dry air evacuated. 1.usa.gov/d1Eki1 TweetDeck • 8/26/11 7:17 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow. That euro loop shows it all. That would be devastating for all of NYC and vicinity. One thing that worries me is the 6z GFS went 15-20 miles west of the 0z run, Also, Knabb, who is an excellent tropical forecaster, said that there is no east trend on the models, that they are just wobbling a bit back and forth and will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even with the track slightly east of the City, Irene would still bring surge to let's say New York Harbor, even if it's east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Coney Island hospital is being evacuated as we speak. They are doing the same in Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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