CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Heavy rain and heavy winds should engulf most of the area regardless of track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 through 36 hrs the 06z gfs is def a bit further west Knabb has a good reputation as a tropical forecaster doesn't he? He just said he doesn't think there's been any trend east with the models, that they are just wobbling back and forth a bit and will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 through 36 hrs the 06z gfs is def a bit further west Maybe a slight tad, but it might just be slower more than anything. Also, something to note, I'm pretty sure where the model places the "L" is not always the true center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe a slight tad, but it might just be slower more than anything. Also, something to note, I'm pretty sure where the model places the "L" is not always the true center. Well, it seems like the slower it is, the further west the landfall and the faster it is the further east the landfall. Also, note what Knabb just said: He just said he doesn't think there's been any trend east with the models, that they are just wobbling back and forth a bit and will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe a slight tad, but it might just be slower more than anything. Also, something to note, I'm pretty sure where the model places the "L" is not always the true center. Yeah thanks, if anything its a hair west. But it is def slower then the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah thanks, if anything its a hair west. But it is def slower then the 00z run 60 over the city or a tad east..maybe Queens? man this thing is coming..scary in a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 60 over the city or a tad east..maybe Queens? Looks like Central Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 60 over the city or a tad east..maybe Queens? The same as 00z central LI, then up into ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 why are mets using the NAM when it has and continues to be completely discredited regarding its use for tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like Central Long Island Yep, further west than the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The eye appears to be about 10 miles south of Long Beach at 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The eye appears to be about 10 miles south of Long Beach at 57 hours. Let's chase it on a boat How strong is it at that point? And is it weakening rapidly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Let's chase it on a boat How strong is it at that point? And is it weakening rapidly? So that's 12 miles due south of me in SW Nassau County. That's going to be one vicious east wind in the northern eye wall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Let's chase it on a boat How strong is it at that point? And is it weakening rapidly? Sounds good! It looks to make landfall around Freeport this run! I'd say it's about 10 miles west of the 0z GFS around (or JUST south) our latitude, and then about 15 miles west of the 0z GFS when it gets to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe it's more like 15 miles south of Long Beach, lol. When I zoomed in again, it did look like it was about 10 miles or slightly more than that based on the scale of miles. (it's 20 in the image I posted, and 10 when you zoom in once more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe it's more like 15 miles south of Long Beach, lol. When I zoomed in again, it did look like it was about 10 miles or slightly more than that based on the scale of miles. (it's 20 in the image I posted, and 10 when you zoom in once more) But it still makes landfall in Freeport at hour 60, Doug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is this thing just barely offshore the entire time during its run from NC to LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe it's more like 15 miles south of Long Beach, lol. When I zoomed in again, it did look like it was about 10 miles or slightly more than that based on the scale of miles. (it's 20 in the image I posted, and 10 when you zoom in once more) Judging by that map, you could just say Sandy Hook, Long Beach, and the eye of Irene form a right triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Bill Read was just talking on ch 5. He said that there is no way that NYC can escape this storm. The big story he said will be the very heavy rain with this storm. He said hurricane force winds will expand 90 miles from the center and tropical storm winds will expand 300 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Bill Read was just talking on ch 5. He said that there is no way that NYC can escape this storm. The big story he said will be the very heavy rain with this storm. He said hurricane force winds will expand 90 miles from the center and tropical storm winds will expand 300 miles. 90 miles from the center..wow..up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 90 miles from the center..wow..up here? Yeah man, this is more like a severe noreaster-- think 1944, Donna, Ike...... in Donna, for example, LGA had 93 mph wind gusts and the center was in eastern Suffolk County. We're going to get December 1992 type effects across two high tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Bill Evans is going with 60-80 mph winds for NYC and 80-100 for LI. 90 miles from the center..wow..up here? Yes Keith . That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Bill Evans is going with 60-80 mph winds for NYC and 80-100 for LI. Yes Keith . That is impressive. Yup, I saw that last night also-- basically 80-100 mph winds from JFK eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But it still makes landfall in Freeport at hour 60, Doug? Yeah, it definitely does. It's about 10 miles or a SHADE more (10-12?) miles south of Long Beach at 57 hours, then at 60 hours, it's at Monroe, CT. An approximate "connecting the points" gives you a landfall right around Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Morning all! Looks like 0z Euro/GFS is just right of NYC. Extremely dangerous track. 6Z Gfs def. came west as did 6Z NAM. Don't think you could ask for a better concensus right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Upton point forecast has me gusting to 85 during day Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Upton point forecast has me gusting to 85 during day Sunday! The worst will be Sunday morning into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Buses and trains might be suspended from tomorrow - next week. The mayor still has to decide on that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Judging by that map, you could just say Sandy Hook, Long Beach, and the eye of Irene form a right triangle Here is a hideous map that I drew. The black box represents where the center is at 60 hours, and I drew a crude black line approximating what would happen between frames. (This is how I arrived at a Freeport landfall) It's hard to draw lines on Paint! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This a scary track and anybody just east of where the center/eye will have the worse conditions including the strongest damaging winds. I was wrong very little chance of NYC and LI escaping this storm unless it takes an expected track out to sea after hitting eastern NC. There are 3 scenarios whereby this could still work out relatively good...the most likely and the one I still think may happen is the center comes in a good 50-60 miles east of most of the consensus right now. This would produce 50-60 mph wind gusts across alot of NYC and western LI but would likely minimize tree damage and power outages. The 2nd possibility is the storm weakens either due to NC land interaction or simply continues to slowly weaken from now until it reaches NC, gets there as maybe only a 100 mph storm and is a 65-75 mph system upon reaching LI. The least likely is this takes a harder right turn than anyone expects and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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