Ian Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS is running. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_m.shtml Remember.. keep it on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Through 96, the trough looks weaker and there's less ridging ahead of the storm compared to 18z. Edit: However, this run will still probably suck for anyone east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 lead wave over over Wisconsin looks to be a tad weaker this run through 84hr as our energy prepares to dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 some pretty good differences at 500 by 126.. vort further south and still sorta digging http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_126m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_132m.gif the end result for the east may not be much different i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 St. Louis will be happy with 132... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Low is further south through 126, probably won't matter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 With a closed low over TN this model is trying to pop a secondary low over the East Coast, but it won't. Classic apps runner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 some pretty good differences at 500 by 126.. vort further south and still sorta digging http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_126m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_132m.gif the end result for the east may not be much different i guess True w/both statements. Vort is a good 100-150 miles futher south. Not sure end game will change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Low is further south through 126, probably won't matter though. problem is the trough is still about to go negative so the low may be a bit s/e but it doesnt matter much in the end at least out in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 problem is the trough is still about to go negative so the low may be a bit s/e but it doesnt matter much in the end at least out in these parts Yeah, Pretty nice jump though for one run through 150. Low is definitely taking a more s/e track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It won't take much shift for an i95 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 problem is the trough is still about to go negative so the low may be a bit s/e but it doesnt matter much in the end at least out in these parts Folks in southern Indiana are loving this run...but how does a storm cut straight up the Apps? That's gotta be pretty rare no? This storm looks exactly like the one we just had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 nice one two punch for some les belts.. deform then plastered behind? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_150m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 981 over central PA on Monday morning. Sad for anyone east of the mountains. Dont even have to worry about ice. Which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 nice one two punch for some les belts.. deform then plastered behind? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_150m.gif we get an amazing dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yeah, Pretty nice jump though for one run through 150. Low is definitely taking a more s/e track. Yep, it's one very small step. But we need the trough orientation to be different on future runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Big differences this run. Thought it was going to try to transfer to the coast, but it doesn't. I think this just shows that it's still a long way out there and we probably won't know for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Folks in southern Indiana are loving this run...but how does a storm cut straight up the Apps? That's gotta be pretty rare no? This storm looks exactly like the one we just had! I think they typically ride one side or the other. I'd favor just west still with what the GFS shows... But maybe it is 'trending' east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Folks in southern Indiana are loving this run...but how does a storm cut straight up the Apps? That's gotta be pretty rare no? This storm looks exactly like the one we just had! I noticed that too, and I can remember reading met discussions many times that always said that wasn't likely or common. One side or the other. Hopefully someone will chime in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Big differences this run. Thought it was going to try to transfer to the coast, but it doesn't. I think this just shows that it's still a long way out there and we probably won't know for quite some time. Its not good for us. Even if it pops a coastal its gonna be to late for NOVA. Look at the 850's. We may see some light snow on the back side. but we know how that works out usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 op GFS at the surface and H5 over the past 24 hours, still an inherent amount of discontinuity... Triangulation at the surface would yield a reflection around central VA, H5 map would tend to agree, although displacing that to the nne a tad, around Harrisburg PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Reminds me of one of those late 1800's blizzards in the history books.... Rain out in front of it then next thing you know white-out and a massive temp drop. Take AR/TN/KY for example on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 -20c 850s get down to around Baltimore/Philly this run.. brrrrrrr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherman995 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Reminds me of one of those late 1800's blizzards in the history books.... Rain out in front of it then next thing you know white-out and a massive temp drop. Take AR/TN/KY for example on this run. Looks Decent for Me. I am in Central Indiana. Southern Indiana gets the best snow. I still think when this thing goes negative tilt, it will take the surface low further north-west. That would bring the heavy snow band from STL to IND over to DAY & CMH. We shall see. This looks to be an awesome storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 981 over central PA on Monday morning. Sad for anyone east of the mountains. Dont even have to worry about ice. Which is nice. Doesn't take that much more of a shift to the E to get the I-81 corridor in PA into a snow/ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Reminds me of one of those late 1800's blizzards in the history books.... Rain out in front of it then next thing you know white-out and a massive temp drop. Take AR/TN/KY for example on this run. i can sorta see that.. i have the 1899 storm looped somewhere. these types of systems seem to become uber wind makers. someone could very well see blizzard conditions from it should it come to pass near shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Doesn't take that much more of a shift to the E to get the I-81 corridor in PA into a snow/ice storm.. You might see some snow on the back side. But per this model run. You need a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 St. Louis will be happy with 132... I'm hopeful to get dumped on but a lot can change. Interesting to watch the progression of the low center a little further south last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Doesn't take that much more of a shift to the E to get the I-81 corridor in PA into a snow/ice storm.. Forecast soundings still show the possibility of a descent hit of ice in western Virginia. The cold air is fairly shallow, but verbatim this would be a high end light to moderate ice event I think, especially as get up closer to New Market and and Stephen's City along 81. Staunton, VA (SHD) Soundings for 132 and 144 hours respectively: 1000-850mb thickness values also support the idea of ice in the same area. For reference, the soundings are for a little west and north of Charlottesville, VA and a little north of Staunton, VA. 132 hours: 138 hours: 144 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 op GFS at the surface and H5 over the past 24 hours, still an inherent amount of discontinuity... Triangulation at the surface would yield a reflection around central VA, H5 map would tend to agree, although displacing that to the nne a tad, around Harrisburg PA. The 00Z GFS surface track is probably wrong...the GFS has frequently done this in the past running lows directly up the spine of the Appalachians...every now and then a storm does take that extraordinarily rare track....3/8/09 is one example of a storm which did...but take the position of the surface low at 144 hours on the 00Z GFS and move it 75 miles west or east and one of those two is likely to happen...I'm leaning more towards the western solution now.....the 00Z GFS is a dream for synoptic snow lovers in Buffalo...ask any weather knowledgeable Buffalo resident how often they get significant snows from a major east coast low and they'll tell .you not very often...even one that tracks straight north across NYC/ALB is usually a hair too far east for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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