Where do you think Irene will make landfall?

[snowlurker]

A landfall in FL, GA, or SC seems unlikely at this point, but a landfall or brush at the Outer Banks does. After that, where do you think Irene will/not make landfall?

[Parsley]

I've been thinking Hurricane Bob track for awhile, but the past 12 hours of models are pulling me into a further west track. I'll go with East Hampton on Long Island. Just a guess though.

[snowlurker]

I think what we are currently seeing (westward shift in general and certain model tracks into mainland NC, Delaware, Southern Jersey) is the product of the models' inability to see the behavior of a shortwave over the Pacific. Or, it is a typical perturbation in an output of multiple model cycles. I think inevitably it will hook NE sooner and sharper than what some of the west-leaning models are currently depicting.

So long story short: I think it will make a moderate brush of Outer Banks and eventually make landfall at the extreme Eastern end of Long Island.

[am19psu]

I think what we are currently seeing (westward shift in general and certain model tracks into mainland NC, Delaware, Southern Jersey) is the product of the models' inability to see the behavior of a shortwave over the Pacific. Or, it is a typical perturbation in an output of multiple model cycles. I think inevitably it will hook NE sooner and sharper than what some of the west-leaning models are currently depicting.

So long story short: I think it will make a moderate brush of Outer Banks and eventually make landfall at the extreme Eastern end of Long Island.

I think it is a product of finally seeing the shortwave over the Pacific. It was partially sampled at 12z and will be fully sampled at 0z.

[snowlurker]

I think it is a product of finally seeing the shortwave over the Pacific. It was partially sampled at 12z and will be fully sampled at 0z.

That's very good news - I was under the impression that it wouldn't be sampled until Friday. Better to blow the dropsonde wad now than to wait too long to have an effective evacuation plan...

[phlwx]

NC landfall, track through Jersey. Might cross both bays on its trek.

[LVblizzard]

I was thinking Long Island last night, but I may have to change that to NJ if the models stay west.

[am19psu]

NC landfall, track through Jersey. Might cross both bays on its trek.

That's where I'm at this morning.

[am19psu]

That's very good news - I was under the impression that it wouldn't be sampled until Friday. Better to blow the dropsonde wad now than to wait too long to have an effective evacuation plan...

There is another s/w (an upstream kicker) that needs to be sampled yet that won't happen until Friday. This trend was due to sampling the phasing shortwave.

[johnc]

I'm beginning to think that maybe my guess of a MA landfall isn't going to verify.