evacuations?

[thunderbolt]

does anyone think there will be evacutions? if so where and when. assuming the models stay the same.

[snowlurker]

I'll bite...I doubt there will be many evacuations because your assumption (models staying same) is hardly likely to verify. Based upon what I have heard over and over from seasoned veterans like Will, the due north track is very rare. But I suppose the southern portion of the Eastern half of Long Island may be subject to voluntary evacuation due to the expected storm surge.

[Animal]

I am on my way to Stone Harbor, NJ.

I have no plans to evacuate. The current track should take it near the area. We could also get shafted with a big west push on the models today.

If anything severe occurs, I will report back.

My biggest concern is coastal flooding. The winds in hurricanes typically only affect a small area.

We may have a peak wind gust in the low 60's but this can occur in winter storrms.

[hazwoper]

I am on my way to Stone Harbor, NJ.

I have no plans to evacuate. The current track should take it near the area. We could also get shafted with a big west push on the models today.

If anything severe occurs, I will report back.

My biggest concern is coastal flooding. The winds in hurricanes typically only affect a small area.

We may have a peak wind gust in the low 60's but this can occur in winter storrms.

Based on most of the guidance now, I would suspect that some of the coastal communities may very well have mandatory evacuations for those visiting/renting.

[hazwoper]

The shore community leaders most certainly monitor NHC for their decisions and the most recent update from them will probably force their hands:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

948 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2011

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC

INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS

THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE

COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE

GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST

ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH

MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK

WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH

EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE

POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE

COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE

NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS

WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.

ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND

STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH

OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE

00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH

AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER

AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN

OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE

UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE

MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.

UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE

WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS

TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.

AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.

OTHERWISE...00Z GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH

AMERICA INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4-5...WITH THE

ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER TO LIFT THE TROUGH TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA.

HOWEVER...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN

OF GFS OFFERING BETTER SUPPORT FOR A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THIS

TROUGH AND THE EVOLVING PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND NORTHEAST

PACIFIC...FOR WHICH THE ECMWF BECOMES NEARLY OUT OF PHASE WITH

OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 7. EARLY PRELIMS RECOMMENDED A MOSTLY

GFS-LIKE OR GEFS-LIKE SOLUTION FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYS 5-7.

HOWEVER FOR UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PREFER A BLEND OF BOTH

GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS AS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF MAY VERY WELL BE OVER

AMPLIFIED OVER ERN CANADA DAYS 6-7 THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS TO SKEW THE ECMWF ENS MEAN TOWARD THIS DIRECTION. PREFER

AND EVEN BLEND OF THE MEANS AT THIS TIME

JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

[Animal]

Based on most of the guidance now, I would suspect that some of the coastal communities may very well have mandatory evacuations for those visiting/renting.

My brothers owns the home.

He is already down there. All his neighbors that owns homes have no plans to leave.

According to him, the talk is in the error but nothing has been reported to leave yet.

If this does occur with an evacuation, the plan is to hunker down and keep a low profile.

[hazwoper]

My brothers owns the home.

He is already down there. All his neighbors that owns homes have no plans to leave.

According to him, the talk is in the error but nothing has been reported to leave yet.

If this does occur with an evacuation, the plan is to hunker down and keep a low profile.

They cannot make homeowners leave. However, my guess is those not owning property will certainly need to leave if mandatory evacuations were annouced.

This would be crazy difficult in places like OCNJ, as the houses are on top of each other with large numbers of rents. If a decision in places like OC need to be made, they will be made within the next 24 hours.

[Thunder Road]

Atlantic County east of Route 9 and all of Cape May County are under a mandatory evacuation. The last evacuation of the Jersey Shore was 26 years ago for Hurricane Gloria. To put things in perspective, even a Category 1 hurricane on this track is worse than a Category 3 storm paralleling the coast. This will be worse than Gloria.

I have also heard that LBI is under a mandatory evac but idk if that's true yet or not.

Even if the islands survive, the causeways will most likely be washed out. I hope you're prepared to be stranded for a week.

For those who are staying, "McCall said those who refuse to leave should put a 3X5 card in their left shoe with their name, address, social security number and next of kin, so they may be identified."

http://www.capemaycountyherald.com/article/75679-county+emergency+director+orders+mandatory+evacuation+county

[Jmister]

I had been wanting to chase this storm from Ventnor all week long, getting down there tomorrow night. We own an apartment a few blocks offshore. Do you guys think it will still be possible to make it down there? If not, I'll be experiencing the storm from my home in Cheltenham!

[Bluescat1]

Atlantic County east of Route 9 and all of Cape May County are under a mandatory evacuation. The last evacuation of the Jersey Shore was 26 years ago for Hurricane Gloria. To put things in perspective, even a Category 1 hurricane on this track is worse than a Category 3 storm paralleling the coast. This will be worse than Gloria.

I have also heard that LBI is under a mandatory evac but idk if that's true yet or not.

Even if the islands survive, the causeways will most likely be washed out. I hope you're prepared to be stranded for a week.

For those who are staying, "McCall said those who refuse to leave should put a 3X5 card in their left shoe with their name, address, social security number and next of kin, so they may be identified."

http://www.capemayco...acuation+county

LBI = AM evac.

[Thunder Road]

LBI = AM evac.

ok thanks. i heard it from a friend down there, but didn't see it in any of the papers yet

[Animal]

Atlantic County east of Route 9 and all of Cape May County are under a mandatory evacuation. The last evacuation of the Jersey Shore was 26 years ago for Hurricane Gloria. To put things in perspective, even a Category 1 hurricane on this track is worse than a Category 3 storm paralleling the coast. This will be worse than Gloria.

I have also heard that LBI is under a mandatory evac but idk if that's true yet or not.

Even if the islands survive, the causeways will most likely be washed out. I hope you're prepared to be stranded for a week.

For those who are staying, "McCall said those who refuse to leave should put a 3X5 card in their left shoe with their name, address, social security number and next of kin, so they may be identified."

http://www.capemayco...acuation+county

This is a little over the top. Going to finish boarding up windows in the morning etc.

Brother has been putting sand bags up most of the day.

Hype meter is a little out of control with the media. Looking to ride out a decent storm. Expect severe flooding with some gust near 60 mph +/- so may have to esacpe to the second floor at some point!

[Bluescat1]

ok thanks. i heard it from a friend down there, but didn't see it in any of the papers yet

I think they staggered the times from south to north to hold down some of the congestion on the Parkway.

[Sunny and Warm]

I think they staggered the times from south to north to hold down some of the congestion on the Parkway.

good luck with that. The public already knows that and accounts for it in their plans.

[Harbourton]

Just made it out of LBI. Storm has flooded main road and nobody can leave ti it drains. Mandatory evac at 8:00AM tomorrow. Phew! Now have to get the generator up here in order. Earthquake and hurricane- nice week to pick for vacation lol.

[Cary]

This is a little over the top. Going to finish boarding up windows in the morning etc.

Brother has been putting sand bags up most of the day.

Hype meter is a little out of control with the media. Looking to ride out a decent storm. Expect severe flooding with some gust near 60 mph +/- so may have to esacpe to the second floor at some point!

Not over the top at all. You are stupidly deciding to ride out a potentially dangerous storm. You have no idea what is going to happen, but you are most certainly putting your life at risk.

[Redmorninglight]

I am a captain in our fire company and we will be spending all day tomorrow in a truck with the PA system urging everyone to evacuate. There is no reason to stay and those that do may not be helped at all. We expect the electric company to intentionally cut power to the shore communities for our safety once tropical storm conditions begin.

[Thunder Road]

People will look at the projected Cat 1 / 85 mph 'cane and think it's not a big deal. But the storm is so large with concentric eyewalls that even a cat 1 will have a much larger than average surge

[famartin]

People will look at the projected Cat 1 / 85 mph 'cane and think it's not a big deal. But the storm is so large with concentric eyewalls that even a cat 1 will have a much larger than average surge

Eh... it won't have concentric eye walls when it gets to NJ. It probably will have little left of an eye wall, if it tracks across eastern NC/VA and the DelMarVa... hell, half the time these things make landfall in NC, they're just "half" of a storm, with the southern portion having already been eaten away by dry air from the land.

[Nor'easter]

Some past family historical points of interest regarding past hurricanes or Nor'easters affecting Absecon Island (Atlantic City, Ventnor, Margate and Lonport). My family had ties to the island (lived or worked) for over 100 years. I remember my mother and father telling me of the Hurricane of 1944. Margate lost its boardwalk and it was never replaced. My great uncle owned 4 city blocks of land in Longport near its tip. The wave erosion and erosion from the escaping tide put his property 10' under water and it remains a part of the inlet today. In NJ as I suppose elsewhere, if you lose your property to water, title of the land automatically reverts to the state with no compensation to the owner. I'm not sure if this hurricane hit at high or low water, they were out of the eyewall and it remained well offshore. The March storm of 1962 was a Nor'easter with a very wide fetch of strong storm force and occasional hurricane force in gusts. The bay met the ocean and there was 3' of water in the streets. This was due to the slow movement of the storm (3) and the pooling of water in the back bays because the NE winds would not allow the tides to fully drain piling water atop water with the next tide cycle. Gloria struck at low tide, was a stronger hurricane, flooded the island, but was well ofshore and I do not recall if we even believe wereceived a hurricane force gust with a wind of N or NNW as it past rapidly east of the island 40 or 60 miles offshore.

I wanted to point these experiences out as reference points. Now to hurricane Irene. The water temp riding up the coast to Southern Jersey is quite warm with temperatures as of last weekend when I was out on my boat of 82-84 degrees. On my thermal Internet sites, I also noted that there was 86 degree water at the canyons off Virginia and MD due to a Gulf Stream eddy. While the temperature is shallow, it is much warmer than what you would experience in September as the storm is passing during the period of maximum sea surface temperature for our area. This will help to slow the decay of Irene as it moves up the coast to at least 38N. Irene will be moving slow for a hurricane which will be travering our latitude. Because of this, it will affect multiple tide cycles with three (3) high tide cycles not being able to properly drain because of increasing SE and then east winds. The rise in bay tides will be extreme. The size of Irene is similar to the March storm, but with Irene's winds currently forecast to be 30-40% stronger. Irene will be striking at the astronomical high tide which is 7'. The potential storm surge, per the NHC, is 8-15' for a cat 1 on the island, which is what Irene's forecast strength will be as it passes through. Adding 3-5' of water in the back bay which may not drain properly and you have an aggregate surge which could reach 18-27' without counting for wave action. The first floor of my house is 10' above sea level. I believe Hurricane Irene will produce the greatest tidal impact in recorded history on our coast with a tide height (astronomical high tide, surge and piling of water in the back bay) of 14-27' If I stay, this could have me riding the storm in my second floor, on my roof, or swimming. None are favorable options.

The surge and potential aggregate tide heights is likely the greatest reason for mandatory evacuations which began at 6:00 AM not only for Absecon Island, but also from Route 9 east on the mainland which is 1-2 miles inland on the actual mainland. (Mandatory evacuations are currently spreading South to North to assure proper traffic flow off the islands and to minimize congestion.) The apparent logic is to have anyone who were at an elevation which could be flooded to leave. Personally, I think this is prudent, because this is going to be more powerful with more surge affects than any Nor'easter or hurricane many of us have ever experienced either locally or on the shores of other states. I know it will be for me and I have llived on the island each of my 50 years.

I have gotten a motel room a couple miles inland of Route 9 for my wife, daughters and dogs. At least we will be safe from the storm surge and facing the storm together. I suggest you consider these facts when determining whether the risk of adventure outweighs the consideration of the safety of yourself and/or family.

Wishing all safe passage of this event. Remember monetary items can be replaced...Lives can't.

[SP]

I am a captain in our fire company and we will be spending all day tomorrow in a truck with the PA system urging everyone to evacuate. There is no reason to stay and those that do may not be helped at all. We expect the electric company to intentionally cut power to the shore communities for our safety once tropical storm conditions begin.

I know the point very well. Been a few years but I fished St Pete's for 2 weeks every fall......

Close friend had a house on Yale.....they sold years back.

The place is a fish bowl. Been there for coastal storms and it get darn nasty. Had to move our cars over to the higher ground past the lake.

I miss your pasta dinners at the fire house. Not sure if you know Mike.....drives a van and fishes st petes everyday......

The point is the last place to stay.....it could get cut off big time....let alone as you mentioned the power being cut off as a precaution.

[SP]

Some past family historical points of interest regarding past hurricanes or Nor'easters affecting Absecon Island (Atlantic City, Ventnor, Margate and Lonport). My family had ties to the island (lived or worked) for over 100 years. I remember my mother and father telling me of the Hurricane of 1944. Margate lost its boardwalk and it was never replaced. My great uncle owned 4 city blocks of land in Longport near its tip. The wave erosion and erosion from the escaping tide put his property 10' under water and it remains a part of the inlet today. In NJ as I suppose elsewhere, if you lose your property to water, title of the land automatically reverts to the state with no compensation to the owner. I'm not sure if this hurricane hit at high or low water, they were out of the eyewall and it remained well offshore. The March storm of 1962 was a Nor'easter with a very wide fetch of strong storm force and occasional hurricane force in gusts. The bay met the ocean and there was 3' of water in the streets. This was due to the slow movement of the storm (3) and the pooling of water in the back bays because the NE winds would not allow the tides to fully drain piling water atop water with the next tide cycle. Gloria struck at low tide, was a stronger hurricane, flooded the island, but was well ofshore and I do not recall if we even believe wereceived a hurricane force gust with a wind of N or NNW as it past rapidly east of the island 40 or 60 miles offshore.

I wanted to point these experiences out as reference points. Now to hurricane Irene. The water temp riding up the coast to Southern Jersey is quite warm with temperatures as of last weekend when I was out on my boat of 82-84 degrees. On my thermal Internet sites, I also noted that there was 86 degree water at the canyons off Virginia and MD due to a Gulf Stream eddy. While the temperature is shallow, it is much warmer than what you would experience in September as the storm is passing during the period of maximum sea surface temperature for our area. This will help to slow the decay of Irene as it moves up the coast to at least 38N. Irene will be moving slow for a hurricane which will be travering our latitude. Because of this, it will affect multiple tide cycles with three (3) high tide cycles not being able to properly drain because of increasing SE and then east winds. The rise in bay tides will be extreme. The size of Irene is similar to the March storm, but with Irene's winds currently forecast to be 30-40% stronger. Irene will be striking at the astronomical high tide which is 7'. The potential storm surge, per the NHC, is 8-15' for a cat 1 on the island, which is what Irene's forecast strength will be as it passes through. Adding 3-5' of water in the back bay which may not drain properly and you have an aggregate surge which could reach 18-27' without counting for wave action. The first floor of my house is 10' above sea level. I believe Hurricane Irene will produce the greatest tidal impact in recorded history on our coast with a tide height (astronomical high tide, surge and piling of water in the back bay) of 14-27' If I stay, this could have me riding the storm in my second floor, on my roof, or swimming. None are favorable options.

The surge and potential aggregate tide heights is likely the greatest reason for mandatory evacuations which began at 6:00 AM not only for Absecon Island, but also from Route 9 east on the mainland which is 1-2 miles inland on the actual mainland. (Mandatory evacuations are currently spreading South to North to assure proper traffic flow off the islands and to minimize congestion.) The apparent logic is to have anyone who were at an elevation which could be flooded to leave. Personally, I think this is prudent, because this is going to be more powerful with more surge affects than any Nor'easter or hurricane many of us have ever experienced either locally or on the shores of other states. I know it will be for me and I have llived on the island each of my 50 years.

I have gotten a motel room a couple miles inland of Route 9 for my wife, daughters and dogs. At least we will be safe from the storm surge and facing the storm together. I suggest you consider these facts when determining whether the risk of adventure outweighs the consideration of the safety of yourself and/or family.

Wishing all safe passage of this event. Remember monetary items can be replaced...Lives can't.

Good luck and stay safe! My house on the water in Monmouth is 13' above........and will be vacant come Sat morning. I am going to try and setup a webcam there.....along with UPS for the cable modem and camera. I have to watch.

for those facing the west..... looking at the back bays.....watch out for the backside.....

I saw what the Dec 92 storm did to SoMoCo.......not worth the risk. Get out is the right idea east of the train tracks........

[hazwoper]

I am a captain in our fire company and we will be spending all day tomorrow in a truck with the PA system urging everyone to evacuate. There is no reason to stay and those that do may not be helped at all. We expect the electric company to intentionally cut power to the shore communities for our safety once tropical storm conditions begin.

Fox reported this morning that North Wildwood was shutting off all power tomorrow.

[Bluescat1]

Fox reported this morning that North Wildwood was shutting off all power tomorrow.

Good move, one less way to die.

[SP]

Good move, one less way to die.

Electrical paired with potential gas leaks due to structural fails is part if the concern. Gas also could be shut off. They shut everything off during the 92 storm for three days until rapairs and inspections were complete.

[Jim]

I have a house in northern inland Cape May County. I plan on getting to the house sometime around midnight tonight. Does anyone know if the roadways, specifically Rt. 49 and Rt. 55 will be shut down to south/east travel? I also heard that Cape May officials are not letting any visitors in after 6pm, I am assuming because I own a house they will let me in. My father, who lives in Avalon, will be evacuating to my house and I told him I would stay with him. If anyone could supply me some information that would be great. Thanks!

Edit** I am traveling from the Washington DC area.

[greg ralls]

I have a house in northern inland Cape May County. I plan on getting to the house sometime around midnight tonight. Does anyone know if the roadways, specifically Rt. 49 and Rt. 55 will be shut down to south/east travel? I also heard that Cape May officials are not letting any visitors in after 6pm, I am assuming because I own a house they will let me in. My father, who lives in Avalon, will be evacuating to my house and I told him I would stay with him. If anyone could supply me some information that would be great. Thanks!

Edit** I am traveling from the Washington DC area.

I would tend to think they wouldn't let you in, since I thought the evacuation applied to visitors & residents alike, but that's just a guess.

[Jim]

I would tend to think they wouldn't let you in, since I thought the evacuation applied to visitors & residents alike, but that's just a guess.

I do know the mandatory evacuation applied to both visitors and residents, however, I have trouble believing they would not let me get to my house which is miles away from the barrier islands. I wish these mandatory evacuations were a bit more defined when it comes to coastal counties. There, in my opinion, is no real difference between the NW quadrant of Cape May county and the SE quadrant of Cumberland County when it comes to these sort of evacuations. The safety level is similar in each.

[hazwoper]

I do know the mandatory evacuation applied to both visitors and residents, however, I have trouble believing they would not let me get to my house which is miles away from the barrier islands. I wish these mandatory evacuations were a bit more defined when it comes to coastal counties. There, in my opinion, is no real difference between the NW quadrant of Cape May county and the SE quadrant of Cumberland County when it comes to these sort of evacuations. The safety level is similar in each.

If your house is not in Cape May proper (meaning you do not cross the canal to reach it, I can't see how they could possibly keep you from your home. However, if you need to cross the canal, then you probably won't be able to make it your home.

[Jim]

No, I am quite far from Cape May and other barrier islands. I will take my chance heading back tonight, I just hope Rt. 49 is not made into an west-only roadway.