rivers Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 when will the watches and warnings go up? I remember in gloria they went up pretty early due to the size, is this similar in size? I remember in bob 60+ gusts where all the way back in west haven area and this looks to be much larger than bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link, I am looking for others. They are town by town pdf versions... http://www.riema.ri...._inundation.php A bit bulky but they show inundation at Cat 1,2,3,4 for each town Also by county... http://www.nae.usace.army.mil/projects/hurEvacRI.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wouldn't having the center passing directly over you be bad if you're looking for the extreme weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS is rolling and appears to be a bit quicker and a bit NW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wouldn't having the center passing directly over you be bad if you're looking for the extreme weather? Probably in the interior it would be...on the coast, the storm will probably still be held together enough that you'll see some big winds near the eye. The models have been trying to hold together a semblance of an eye wall near the center...particularly on the north and E side, but given its still 4 days out, we'll see how much that changes as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How any other homeowners are wishing for thie worst of this thing is beyond me. Gonna be a long couple of days...maybe a long week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I was in Foxboro (senior in hs) for Gloria. I had never seen so many trees come down. Most damaging event I had seen until the '08 Ice Storm up here. Be prepared for lots of unhappy yellowjackets. Chain saws are a good idea. Have bar oil and be careful. Are power companies pre-positioning crews? Seeing National Grid trucks after '08 was so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How any other homeowners are wishing for thie worst of this thing is beyond me. Gonna be a long couple of days...maybe a long week... I wish it was going out to sea... My wishes do sh*t... this will be sucky for many Good luck with your property Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Be prepared for lots of unhappy yellowjackets. In hurricane Bob we had a huge branch fall down on our street that had a huge yellow jackets nest inside of it. I remember seeing them still flying in and out days after. Someone must have killed them eventually though because the branch was gone a few days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How any other homeowners are wishing for thie worst of this thing is beyond me. Gonna be a long couple of days...maybe a long week... I hear you on that one. I just moved to florida and have to come back and secure my house up there sat am.what a mess! on the other hand I cant help but being a little excited at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 In hurricane Bob we had a huge branch fall down on our street that had a huge yellow jackets nest inside of it. I remember seeing them still flying in and out days after. Someone must have killed them eventually though because the branch was gone a few days after that. Aren't there all sorts of exotic bugs and birds that get trapped inside the eye of these storms? I remember seeing a really weird bug after Gloria, the thing looked like an extremely exotic wasp with a stinger on its tail about six inches long. Needless to say, I did not venture out that day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How any other homeowners are wishing for thie worst of this thing is beyond me. Gonna be a long couple of days...maybe a long week... There were several Floridians on a message board back in '04 who were pissed when the hurricanes missed their area. One guy literally said that his dream was to be right in the eye of the storm after it ripped his house apart. There are some crazy people out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I wish it was going out to sea... My wishes do sh*t... this will be sucky for many Good luck with your property Thanks. Nothing of value left in the basement...so flooding would be more of a nuisance than anything. But the prospect of any more than 50 mph winds in a heavily wooded neighborhood gives me a few knots in the stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Tornadoes can happen with any landfalling storm... the number one trigger for tornadoes is atmospheric spin, and hurricanes are already spinning violently, so all that's needed is a decent embedded cell to spin up some rainwrapped twisters. Though since the air mass won't be particularly tropical up here relative to FL or Gulf Coast landfalls, I don't think we have to worry about the 80+ twister outbreaks that some storms (Ivan, Frances, Beulah) can create. The system would have to track pretty far west in order for us to get into the threat for isolated tornadoes with this. Even a track of NYC or W. CT you'd probably have to go to far eastern MA...out by the Cape probably for this threat. Although with the outer bands that will travel well out ahead of it those could pose a very low threat; especially just along the coastal area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I was in Foxboro (senior in hs) for Gloria. I had never seen so many trees come down. Most damaging event I had seen until the '08 Ice Storm up here. Be prepared for lots of unhappy yellowjackets. Chain saws are a good idea. Have bar oil and be careful. Are power companies pre-positioning crews? Seeing National Grid trucks after '08 was so awesome. I always thought Gloria was a complete bust for NE. Out in WMass we had some gusty winds, but that was it. The storm completely disintegrated when it passed over our house and the sun came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thanks. Nothing of value left in the basement...so flooding would be more of a nuisance than anything. But the prospect of any more than 50 mph winds in a heavily wooded neighborhood gives me a few knots in the stomach. got it...probably more than a few lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Aren't there all sorts of exotic bugs and birds that get trapped inside the eye of these storms? I remember seeing a really weird bug after Gloria, the thing looked like an extremely exotic wasp with a stinger on its tail about six inches long. Needless to say, I did not venture out that day.... The story in Branford conn is alot of parrots came in from gloria and are there to this day and migrate with the rest of the birds in the fall.I have seen them many times at a place called foot park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Aren't there all sorts of exotic bugs and birds that get trapped inside the eye of these storms? I remember seeing a really weird bug after Gloria, the thing looked like an extremely exotic wasp with a stinger on its tail about six inches long. Needless to say, I did not venture out that day.... Yes I've heard that. Apparently there was a flock of parrots on the outer banks after Bob grazed them. I don't know if that's true or not, but I definitely remember readng it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That's probably one of the main concerns with this storm...its large. So if we see a track right up into the interior, there could be a large aerial coverage of damage. The biggest question is still just how fast it will b e moving when it makes landfall and how strong it will be. I can't really see it being stronger than a cat 1...perhaps weak cat 2, but forward speed increases as we get closer, then that could change. A Will - quick sentiment regarding the potential sensible result here. Firstly, the 18z did accelerate the forward speed - that "could" be a beginning trend because the trough bias this year has been too weak at this type of time lead. If such a bias is exercising now, then the correction would be toward a more proficient capture, and a faster speed would result. Of course...the trade off there would be - most likely - a farther west track. Lot's of ifs, but very well could be why as we are getting closer a consensus seems to be trying to hone in on a central LI/ rough ORH type track or even a bit west of there. I personally still think 20 miles W of ORH - which as you've intimated would be bad. That said, folks we should not down play a Cat 1's affects. Let me ask you all a question (and this goes for me too!): when was the last time we experienced Cat 1 winds, sustained ..or even gusting regularly, for a 6 hour period of time? It's nothing to shake stick and will set you back. It will impose a considerable disruption to infrastructure, along with property damage and disruption to some degree of social services - depending on how severe it gets would determine how long said disruption takes to recover afterward. If this manages a Cat 2 *(remote), this will scare the hell out of a lot of people and would be life threatening. Point being, we can imagine a lot, but the in person sensible experience of that kind of power is entirely a different ordeal. We've all seen wind tunnel tests where a 6' man cannot stand up against a 75mph wind. Obviously boundary layer physics would prevent that getting down to the streets (unless we get raked by families of EFO and EF1 twisters, which can happen) in the interior, but probably would grace the canopy during heavier burst; flying debris and secondary damage is a real concern for homes, and obviously quite dangerous to those caught out of door even as far inland as Barre Falls to Nashua given the current NHC track and intensity guidance. I certainly agree that this should be weakening in earnest even prior to reaching LI, but even in the 18z GFS, we are moving from approximately the Va Cape latitude to LI in 12 hours; that's close to 22kt - almost 30mph. That's not exactly slow. Even in a better case scenario, 30mph + TS force would ring out an affect described above, and we are actually planning something IN Cat 1, with remote chance for Cat 2 - though I would be fascinated by re-analysis if that took place. Make no bones about it, this is a serious situation and should not be down played - that is not a criticism toward any particular poster/content so please don't take it that way. One last thing ... am aware this may be read as dramatic; the intent is objective however, and I don't believe I am stating anything beyond the pale of real possibility given what we seeing - it's meteorologically sound. It is important not to be caught up in the drama weeds just the same. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I better get some sleep. Hopping to wake up to a massive east shift in track with weenies crying bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A Will - quick sentiment regarding the potential sensible result here. Firstly, the 18z did accelerate the forward speed - that "could" be a beginning trend because the trough bias this year has been too weak at this type of time lead. If such a bias is exercising now, then the correction would be toward a more proficient capture, and a faster speed would result. Of course...the trade off there would be - most likely - a farther west track. Lot's of ifs, but very well could be why as we are getting closer a consensus seems to be trying to hone in on a central LI/ rough ORH type track or even a bit west of there. I personally still think 20 miles W of ORH - which as you've intimated would be bad. That said, folks we should not down play a Cat 1's affects. Let me ask you all a question (and this goes for me too!): when was the last time we experienced Cat 1 winds, sustained ..or even gusting regularly, for a 6 hour period of time? It's nothing to shake stick and will set you back. It will impose a considerable disruption to infrastructure, along with property damage and disruption to some degree of social services - depending on how severe it gets would determine how long said disruption takes to recover afterward. If this manages a Cat 2 *(remote), this will scare the hell out of a lot of people and would be life threatening. Point being, we can imagine a lot, but the in person sensible experience of that kind of power is entirely a different ordeal. We've all seen wind tunnel tests where a 6' man cannot stand up against a 75mph wind. Obviously boundary layer physics would prevent that getting down to the streets (unless we get raked by families of EFO and EF1 twisters, which can happen) in the interior, but probably would grace the canopy during heavier burst; flying debris and secondary damage is a real concern for homes, and obviously quite dangerous to those caught out of door even as far inland as Barre Falls to Nashua given the current NHC track and intensity guidance. I certainly agree that this should be weakening in earnest even prior to reaching LI, but even in the 18z GFS, we are moving from approximately the Va Cape latitude to LI in 12 hours; that's close to 22kt - almost 30mph. That's not exactly slow. Even in a better case scenario, 30mph + TS force would ring out an affect described above, and we are actually planning something IN Cat 1, with remote chance for Cat 2 - though I would be fascinated by re-analysis if that took place. Make no bones about it, this is a serious situation and should not be down played - that is not a criticism toward any particular poster/content so please don't take it that way. One last thing ... am aware this may be read as dramatic; the intent is objective however, and I don't believe I am stating anything beyond the pale of real possibility given what we seeing - it's meteorologically sound. It is important not to be caught up in the drama weeds just the same. John This is the 5 paragraph post SnowNH was looking for earlier!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Good points Tip I hope yOu get to play many more rounds at Barre Falls Dam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A Will - quick sentiment regarding the potential sensible result here. Firstly, the 18z did accelerate the forward speed - that "could" be a beginning trend because the trough bias this year has been too weak at this type of time lead. If such a bias is exercising now, then the correction would be toward a more proficient capture, and a faster speed would result. Of course...the trade off there would be - most likely - a farther west track. Lot's of ifs, but very well could be why as we are getting closer a consensus seems to be trying to hone in on a central LI/ rough ORH type track or even a bit west of there. I personally still think 20 miles W of ORH - which as you've intimated would be bad. That said, folks we should not down play a Cat 1's affects. Let me ask you all a question (and this goes for me too!): when was the last time we experienced Cat 1 winds, sustained ..or even gusting regularly, for a 6 hour period of time? It's nothing to shake stick and will set you back. It will impose a considerable disruption to infrastructure, along with property damage and disruption to some degree of social services - depending on how severe it gets would determine how long said disruption takes to recover afterward. If this manages a Cat 2 *(remote), this will scare the hell out of a lot of people and would be life threatening. Point being, we can imagine a lot, but the in person sensible experience of that kind of power is entirely a different ordeal. We've all seen wind tunnel tests where a 6' man cannot stand up against a 75mph wind. Obviously boundary layer physics would prevent that getting down to the streets (unless we get raked by families of EFO and EF1 twisters, which can happen) in the interior, but probably would grace the canopy during heavier burst; flying debris and secondary damage is a real concern for homes, and obviously quite dangerous to those caught out of door even as far inland as Barre Falls to Nashua given the current NHC track and intensity guidance. I certainly agree that this should be weakening in earnest even prior to reaching LI, but even in the 18z GFS, we are moving from approximately the Va Cape latitude to LI in 12 hours; that's close to 22kt - almost 30mph. That's not exactly slow. Even in a better case scenario, 30mph + TS force would ring out an affect described above, and we are actually planning something IN Cat 1, with remote chance for Cat 2 - though I would be fascinated by re-analysis if that took place. Make no bones about it, this is a serious situation and should not be down played - that is not a criticism toward any particular poster/content so please don't take it that way. One last thing ... am aware this may be read as dramatic; the intent is objective however, and I don't believe I am stating anything beyond the pale of real possibility given what we seeing - it's meteorologically sound. It is important not to be caught up in the drama weeds just the same. John Thank you for your always amazing posts, really. You are one smart man, I learn a lot from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think they were in the 60-65mph range. It wasn't ridiculous but there was some damage. I was in Acton for Gloria and the timbre damage was extensive. I'd estimate 60+ gusts there, and frequently for 4 hours. Each gust began as a homogeneous low decibel hum that grew in intensity to a roar as trees bent at 45 degree angles when it arrives. The sky was filled with small sticks and leaf -like material moving along under streets of clouds whipping along at some astounding speeds. Sometimes the sound of the wind was strong enough to drown out the sound of cracking timbre. This was the first time that I saw first hand a 70 foot pine bifurcate, fly through the air, and land just a few feet from a neighbor's house. These are 60mph gusts...may 70 at worst. Acton is a township that has a few fields cleared out for old farms, and open parking lots, otherwise, a lot of wooded neighborhoods. A romp around town showed that most byways were impassible to cars because 12" diameter tree debris was quite common and pervasive. In this situation we would likely at least meet that type as minimum given the modeling and if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BOS will be fine on Saturday...storm won't start impacting the region until Sunday morning. While I agree on the timing, it would not surprise me if his flight is canceled just so the planes don't get stuck in Boston gumming up the whole system for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS definitely looks a bit west through 66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 While I agree on the timing, it would not surprise me if his flight is canceled just so the planes don't get stuck in Boston gumming up the whole system for a few days. Yeah that's a good point. I'd definitely call ahead if I was flying on Sat night to make sure they are still accepting traffic. Though I would also think they'd want to keep planes coming and going as long as possible because they might be shut down for 24 hours...I'd think they could still get planes out on early Sunday morning which might make a Sat night flight a little safer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This little blow will make the Ecotariums new Hurricane Simulation Chamber superflouous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How do they get TWCs local on the 8s to have Cantore's voice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How do they get TWCs local on the 8s to have Cantore's voice? And Eric clapton. Used to be hardcore elevator music Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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