Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III

[Logan11]

I recall one in Nov. 1980 that turned into a snowstorm and gave us 10 inches up here...that had been a gulf cane.

My grandparents bought the first property upstate in 1943 so anything before that....their memories were from Brooklyn.

A couple of them occurred in October and produced massive snowstorms upstate

Actually looking back on it, October canes seem to have been much more common back then (landfalling ones in the NE at any rate.)

[LedZep]

At 8pm I couldn't find a bottle of water or much bread for that matter in Newport. I lost power for a day plus with Gloria and around 5 days with Bob. Do you guys think it will be more difficult getting the power fully restored as fast as back then because with this one many more hundreds of thousands of people are going to be losing power in the Northeast? I'm hoping we get help from the Mid-West and Canada.

Funny, I just returned from Newport this very afternoon after spending a few relaxing days at the Wyndham Inn @ Long Wharf. I went to the Stop and Shop over by the Tennis Hall Of Fame, and cleared out what was left of the Poland Spring one gallon water jugs (there was only 8 left so I snatched them all). Good thing too, I went to my local S&S here and there wasn't a jug to be found.

I really wanted to stay and watch the storm from my room overlooking the marina on the 5th floor, but unfortunately my timeshare was only through Saturday. Good luck to you, the waters were very rough when I was leaving (not due to Irene), can only imagine what it'll be like in the coming days.

[NorthShoreWx]

Wow, thanks Ed! Do you also have any of the big ones from the 1800s on there? I'll search on there if so. Guess not, no 1893

That was a great project that I never had time to finish. It covers 1900 - 1940 so far. Some day I will finish. Haven't worked on it in at least 3 or 4 years. I don't really have any plans to go pre 1900 because the data just isn't there. I'd essentially be plagerizing guys like Ludlum and Don Sutherland if I tried to do the older ones (how's that for putting Don in good company? ) Perhaps 1893 should be an exception, however.

[A-L-E-X]

I recall one in Nov. 1980 that turned into a snowstorm and gave us 10 inches up here...that had been a gulf cane.

My grandparents bought the first property upstate in 1943 so anything before that....their memories were from Brooklyn.

Wow, that must have been exciting. I dont really remember anything before the April 1982 Blizzard-- the only November hurricane I remember coming up here (and it was offshore) was back in the mid 90s lol.

That 1804 one and the one in 1858 produced massive amounts of snow as far south as central CT.

[NorthShoreWx]

Yup, parts of the city were flooded in 1938 too. Sustained hurricane force winds from a storm that actually landfalled in NYC (as far as I know) have only been experienced in NYC in 1821 and 1893.

But then you have a storm like Hazel which produced 113 mph wind gusts in southern Manhattan.

NYC always had good wind gusts before the WB moved uptown. Most of those old wind readings were from the Battery and I think the anemometer was on the roof of 17 Whitehall Street, about 450 feet above the ground. Haven't I been hearing that elevation adds a category to the hurricane winds? The modern standard is supposed to be 30 feet off of the ground.

[A-L-E-X]

That was a great project that I never had time to finish. It covers 1900 - 1940 so far. Some day I will finish. Haven't worked on it in at least 3 or 4 years. I don't really have any plans to go pre 1900 because the data just isn't there. I'd essentially be plagerizing guys like Ludlum and Don Sutherland if I tried to do the older ones (how's that for putting Don in good company? ) Perhaps 1893 should be an exception, however.

If you ever need or want someone to collect information (maps, data, etc.) I will be happy to do it for you and you can pick whatever seems fit on there. The 1950s up to 1960 were a great time for canes, even with a couple that tracked west of us (like Hazel.) Doria, Belle, etc from the 70s would be interesting reads too.

[Logan11]

I was in Jr. High ....got a snow day. I didn't realize at the time it came from the energy that was once a cane. I read that later. wx data was very limited to the average person in 1980. I thought the NY Times PSU produced wx page was the best data. Local tv wx yeah..mostly a bunch of weather men with no degrees.

Wow, that must have been exciting. I dont really remember anything before the April 1982 Blizzard-- the only November hurricane I remember coming up here (and it was offshore) was back in the mid 90s lol.

That 1804 one and the one in 1858 produced massive amounts of snow as far south as central CT.

[A-L-E-X]

NYC always had good wind gusts before the WB moved uptown. Most of those old wind readings were from the Battery and I think the anemometer was on the roof of 17 Whitehall Street, about 450 feet above the ground. Haven't I been hearing that elevation adds a category to the hurricane winds? The modern standard is supposed to be 30 feet off of the ground.

Yep, they were just talking about that yesterday too. I believe every 10 stories adds an extra category. When you compare wind gusts in a modern storm like, say, the Boxing Day Blizzard, the winds in NYC were nothing like what the rest of the region experienced.

[ORH_wxman]

I was in Jr. High ....got a snow day. I didn't realize at the time it came from the energy that was once a cane. I read that later. wx data was very limited to the average person in 1980. I thought the NY Times PSU produced wx page was the best data. Local tv wx yeah..mostly a bunch of weather men with no degrees.

That storm gave a lot of snow here too, but pretty much crap after that the rest of the winter. It was the biggest event of the season...in November.

This storm is going to have some serious impacts on SNE I think.

[A-L-E-X]

I was in Jr. High ....got a snow day. I didn't realize at the time it came from the energy that was once a cane. I read that later. wx data was very limited to the average person in 1980. I thought the NY Times PSU produced wx page was the best data. Local tv wx yeah..mostly a bunch of weather men with no degrees.

Good memories from back then! Back in the 80s, I used to avidly read the Times weather page and their celestial charts. Some of the older ones from back in the 60s and 70s are a bit of a collectors' item now

[Logan11]

Speaking of Belle. I was down in the city for a Mets game and we stayed at my mom's aunt's house in Douglaston the night it hit. That seemed like a heck of a storm to me as a little kid.

If you ever need or want someone to collect information (maps, data, etc.) I will be happy to do it for you and you can pick whatever seems fit on there. The 1950s up to 1960 were a great time for canes, even with a couple that tracked west of us (like Hazel.) Doria, Belle, etc from the 70s would be interesting reads too.

[ORH_wxman]

Good memories from back then! Back in the 80s, I used to avidly read the Times weather page and their celestial charts. Some of the older ones from back in the 60s and 70s are a bit of a collectors' item now

This will be worse than Bob here if it can track over E CT...but if its E of PVD, then it will be less. Donna was weaker than Bob but might have arguably been higher impact because it was further W....Gloria was so far west and kind of weird with its rain shield that it didn't have quite the impact that this storm would on a similar track IMHO, but we'll see on that if it happens.

[A-L-E-X]

That storm gave a lot of snow here too, but pretty much crap after that the rest of the winter. It was the biggest event of the season...in November.

This storm is going to have some serious impacts on SNE I think.

Will, do you still think only 60 mph gusts for me? Lee Goldberg had the strangest forecast-- he basically had the storm not making landfall at all, but still had 80-100 mph gusts from JFK on east, he said the wind field from this storm would be huge so it wouldn't really matter.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, do you still think only 60 mph gusts for me? Lee Goldberg had the strangest forecast-- he basically had the storm not making landfall at all, but still had 80-100 mph gusts from JFK on east, he said the wind field from this storm would be huge so it wouldn't really matter.

I don't think you will get 100mph wind gusts if it goes east of you...but its possible you still get 70 on the west side if the storm makes landfall in Nassau county.

[NorthShoreWx]

Yep, they were just talking about that yesterday too. I believe every 10 stories adds an extra category. When you compare wind gusts in a modern storm like, say, the Boxing Day Blizzard, the winds in NYC were nothing like what the rest of the region experienced.

I don't think it is linear. Otherwise the observaton deck on the Empire State building would be looking at Cat 12 winds this weekend, even if the storm is a miss. I doubt you add much more than a category (about 20 kts? ) on tall buildings.

[skierinvermont]

Have the 6z early cycles been posted? Look east to me.

[nzucker]

I don't think you will get 100mph wind gusts if it goes east of you...but its possible you still get 70 on the west side if the storm makes landfall in Nassau county.

What do you think for here in southern Westchester, Will? 45mph sustained with 70mph gusts? Does that sound reasonable? Do we see any funneling up the Hudson?

[Logan11]

In Gloria ...I was in Ottawa doing a stint at Carleton University.... We had a steady fairly heavy chilly rain all day and my best guess is it was some kind of PRE or frontal interaction given how far that was from the track of the cane.

This will be worse than Bob here if it can track over E CT...but if its E of PVD, then it will be less. Donna was weaker than Bob but might have arguably been higher impact because it was further W....Gloria was so far west and kind of weird with its rain shield that it didn't have quite the impact that this storm would on a similar track IMHO, but we'll see on that if it happens.

[A-L-E-X]

This will be worse than Bob here if it can track over E CT...but if its E of PVD, then it will be less. Donna was weaker than Bob but might have arguably been higher impact because it was further W....Gloria was so far west and kind of weird with its rain shield that it didn't have quite the impact that this storm would on a similar track IMHO, but we'll see on that if it happens.

The hype before Gloria hit was absolutely amazing. They were predicting a Cat 3 landfall here and it was a Cat 1 with not much of a backside at all. Donna also had a huge eye so the wind field around that eye was probably much larger and had a Dec 92 type of impact for here and NYC from what people like Andrew and Chris have been saying.

[A-L-E-X]

I don't think it is linear. Otherwise the observaton deck on the Empire State building would be looking at Cat 12 winds this weekend, even if the storm is a miss. I doubt you add much more than a category (about 20 kts? ) on tall buildings.

Haha, that's a great point. I wonder how that would work anyway... let's say 10 stories adds one category.... how much further up would you have to go to get to the next category and would the initial starting point be a determining factor as far as the interval is concerned?

[ORH_wxman]

What do you think for here in southern Westchester, Will? 45mph sustained with 70mph gusts? Does that sound reasonable? Do we see any funneling up the Hudson?

Prob not as this is likely to trend E...but we'll see. I;m still favoring an E LI landfall to CT/RI border.

[A-L-E-X]

Speaking of Belle. I was down in the city for a Mets game and we stayed at my mom's aunt's house in Douglaston the night it hit. That seemed like a heck of a storm to me as a little kid.

Probably the best the city has seen since 1893.... it was the furthest west landfall (Jones Beach) of any hurricane on the Island of the 20th century.

[A-L-E-X]

Prob not as this is likely to trend E...but we'll see. I;m still favoring an E LI landfall to CT/RI border.

Do you think of it making landfall in Nassau County is higher than a complete whiff to the east?

[NorthShoreWx]

The hype before Gloria hit was absolutely amazing. They were predicting a Cat 3 landfall here and it was a Cat 1 with not much of a backside at all. Donna also had a huge eye so the wind field around that eye was probably much larger and had a Dec 92 type of impact for here and NYC from what people like Andrew and Chris have been saying.

I had spoken with someone from OKX several years ago who said there were areas of high cat 2 damage and indications of wind gusts up to 115 in a few areas near the south shore of Suffolk during Gloria. He showed me this on a map. Gloria didn't miss living up to the hype by much. It was disintegrating when it hit LI and still had a helluva punch. It also arrived at low tide.

[ORH_wxman]

Do you think of it making landfall in Nassau County is higher than a complete whiff to the east?

Yes, if you are talking about a whiff E like near ACK or something...but I think a landfall over E LI is much more likely than W LI.

[wxsniss]

Is IR Sat not as helpful for visualizing the eye? To me, this is looking less healthy than it did a few hours ago... Any thoughts?

Latest vortex data message holding at 942 mb, max winds 110 kts

EDIT: main discussion thread chalks this up to outer eye wall taking over, inner eye wall collapsing, perhaps another ERC

[A-L-E-X]

I had spoken with someone from OKX several years ago who said there were areas of high cat 2 damage and indications of wind gusts up to 115 in a few areas near the south shore of Suffolk during Gloria. He showed me this on a map. Gloria didn't miss living up to the hype by much. It was disintegrating when it hit LI and still had a helluva punch. It also arrived at low tide.

Wow, was that out by the Hamptons, Ed? I think the forward motion robbed us of some of the wind velocity out this way, while adding to it out there. Wasn't Gloria one of the quickest moving tropical systems on record at one point?

[Logan11]

IR after the eclipse doesnt look so great. Eye no longer apparent. Probably still 115 at 5 AM.

If this cane wasn't hyped to threaten major Northeast population centers, it wouldn't be any huge deal for far eastern NC. They get so many.

If it ends up missing NYC and BOS with it's worst it will seem over hyped even it does wreck Cape Cod.

Yes, if you are talking about a whiff E like near ACK or something...but I think a landfall over E LI is much more likely than W LI.

[ORH_wxman]

IR after the eclipse doesnt look so great. Eye no longer apparent. Probably still 115 at 5 AM.

If this cane wasn't hyped to threaten major Northeast population centers, it wouldn't be any huge deal for far eastern NC. They get so many.

If it ends up missing NYC and BOS with it's worst it will seem over hyped even it does wreck Cape Cod.

This will be the worst storm since Bob....make no mistake about it...even if it goes a bit east. We'd need to see a huge catastrophic bust to the east to make this a lesser impact.

[A-L-E-X]

Hey Ed, I found a TC from your page which actually sort of looks like the kind of track Will was envisioning. Tell me what you guys think.

http://www.northshorewx.com/Hurricane19340908.asp

NYC had 65 mph winds with this (sustained it looks like.)