Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III

[Logan11]

We even got channel 3 out of HFD in the mid Hudson Valley as a kid and I liked Hilton Kaderli on there... But then they carved the whole country into Nielsen Company's DMA's and the local channels got their own fiefdoms under the law in each DMA. So L.I. can only offer NYC stations, this area can only offer ALB stations etc.

Unless you put up an antenna....

We used to get CT stations before we got cable. Mostly I remember channel 8.. Many of the FM radio stations are still CT, but LI has a few also (for those of you who still know what broadcast radio is ).

[nzucker]

That would suck for here and the mayor would be mocked like he was in March 2001 lol. Some of my friends in Queens and Brooklyn (some of them live near where noreaster lives and they dont think they'd ever have to evacuate because they think their area is invulnerable) and are already saying this storm is nothing but hype and I was hoping to prove them wrong.

Huh?

The storm makes landfall near Brooklyn/JFK on the 0z ECM, and it's sub 930mb over NC...that's pushing a ton of water. The 0z ECM track is probably quite devastating for NYC, especially with the pressure field bent back towards NJ so much.

[NorthShoreWx]

In a way this is an easy call for central LI. There's obviously still a lot of variation on the table, but we probably aren't going to be too far west or too far east to not get a big storm. I actually had phone calls from neighbors asking for "the real scoop" tonight. I recommended that they plan for a direct hit, 100 mph wind gusts and the possibility of several days without power. I really can't loose, even if I am wrong about the direct hit. 60MPH gusts look pretty ferocious to someone who has't seen much of that and we've got so many big old trees that power outages are almost a given.

[wxsniss]

You guys get the feeling that Boston / Mass media is slow to hype this up sufficiently...?

Much of mid-Atlantic has public running for stores, boarding up houses, state of emergency, shoreline evacuations, etc.

But this is STILL the buried heading on Boston Globe and Boston.com:

[A-L-E-X]

Huh?

The storm makes landfall near Brooklyn/JFK on the 0z ECM, and it's sub 930mb over NC...that's pushing a ton of water. The 0z ECM track is probably quite devastating for NYC, especially with the pressure field bent back towards NJ so much.

LOL look at the post I was responding to, Nate-- Will thinks the landfall is going to be in Rhode Island somewhere.

The Euro looked kind of odd, with the storm actually strengthening before it makes landfall here at 964 mb. It had it right over my house or just to the west.

We know this isn't a traditional hurricane and will have a huge windfield both to the left and right, like Donna did, but a Rhode Island landfall wouldn't be very exciting just west of here.

[ORH_wxman]

I think that hook to the ne is key. Like we were saying earlier, it could hit ISP and then move over BOS or something like that. Maybe it occurs further north than that..but something to watch. Probably a good call right now. I'd say HVN ro UUU right now is probably the target zone. The other question is whether it's heading 020 when it makes landfall, or 050.

I think the hook NE will become more on the models as we get closer if the past is any indication.

[Logan11]

Well it takes about a 100 year storm for NYC to get it really bad from a cane. I think there was one in the 1890's that was very bad. They have NJ to the south/southwest so its really hard to get a NYC landfall. Plus they have a really great sheltered harbor with only the narrows for the water to surge through. Whereas Narraganset Bay starts out wider and the water would push up a narrowing bay. Also the land mass in Manhattan was quite hilly so most (90%) cant flood.

quote name='A-L-E-X' timestamp='1314339565' post='916507']

That would suck for here and the mayor would be mocked like he was in March 2001 lol. Some of my friends in Queens and Brooklyn (some of them live near where noreaster lives and they dont think they'd ever have to evacuate because they think their area is invulnerable) and are already saying this storm is nothing but hype and I was hoping to prove them wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the hook NE will become more on the models as we get closer if the past is any indication.

Absolultely

[CoastalWx]

You guys get the feeling that Boston / Mass media is slow to hype this up sufficiently...?

Much of mid-Atlantic has public running for stores, boarding up houses, state of emergency, shoreline evacuations, etc.

But this is STILL the buried heading on Boston Globe and Boston.com:

If they do trend more east, the hype begins tomorrow. These things always tick east at our latitude. I don't know what it is...maybe the models have a problem with handling the system as tropical vs non tropical, but once they sniff the westerlies....they shift east. It's not even a blanket weenie statement, they just do. We've all seen this in front of our eyes in the last few years. We are 66 hrs out and maybe the euro verifies, but the 00z run yesterday certainly appears to be the extreme for sure.

[A-L-E-X]

In a way this is an easy call for central LI. There's obviously still a lot of variation on the table, but we probably aren't going to be too far west or too far east to not get a big storm. I actually had phone calls from neighbors asking for "the real scoop" tonight. I recommended that they plan for a direct hit, 100 mph wind gusts and the possibility of several days without power. I really can't loose, even if I am wrong about the direct hit. 60MPH gusts look pretty ferocious to someone who has't seen much of that and we've got so many big old trees that power outages are almost a given.

I just wish those Long Island storm surge maps were a bit more clear, Ed. They have entire towns mislabeled and wrongly placed. I had to use mapquest and compare the shape of the coastline to figure out which part of the village is in which zone. I wish they had a system whereby you could just input your address and it would show you exactly which zone you were in lol.

BTW why do we have a Cat 4 surge zone? The chances of an asteroid hitting here are probably greater. Unless Cat 4 surge zone doesn't refer to the actual strength of the storm but can be caused by a Cat 1 or 2 storm that was large enough (like Ike) or still had a large surge associated with it from when it used to be much stronger (like Katrina)?

[Logan11]

I wonder what is going to make this huge cane hook northeast at that point,...when it has so much forward momentum going NNE and is trucking along at a rapid speed.

I think that hook to the ne is key. Like we were saying earlier, it could hit ISP and then move over BOS or something like that. Maybe it occurs further north than that..but something to watch. Probably a good call right now. I'd say HVN ro UUU right now is probably the target zone. The other question is whether it's heading 020 when it makes landfall, or 050.

[CoastalWx]

Alright well that was fun. Time to retire till tomorrow morning.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

At 8pm I couldn't find a bottle of water or much bread for that matter in Newport. I lost power for a day plus with Gloria and around 5 days with Bob. Do you guys think it will be more difficult getting the power fully restored as fast as back then because with this one many more hundreds of thousands of people are going to be losing power in the Northeast? I'm hoping we get help from the Mid-West and Canada.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Alright well that was fun. Time to retire till tomorrow morning.

[A-L-E-X]

Well it takes about a 100 year storm for NYC to get it really bad from a cane. I think there was one in the 1890's that was very bad. They have NJ to the south/southwest so its really hard to get a NYC landfall. Plus they have a really great sheltered harbor with only the narrows for the water to surge through. Whereas Narraganset Bay starts out wider and the water would push up a narrowing bay. Also the land mass in Manhattan was quite hilly so most (90%) cant flood.

A landfall just to east of NYC (even in Suffolk County) would inundate them also because they are very susceptible to NE winds piling water down from the sound-- this is why they were underwater in Donna. It's specific low lying areas in southern Manhattan up to about Canal Street, as well as large parts of Brooklyn and Queens which were also underwater in Donna and Dec 92.

[A-L-E-X]

In the NYC thread they're comparing the Euro to the 1903 Hurricane lol.

[NorthShoreWx]

BTW why do we have a Cat 4 surge zone? The chances of an asteroid hitting here are probably greater. Unless Cat 4 surge zone doesn't refer to the actual strength of the storm but can be caused by a Cat 1 or 2 storm that was large enough (like Ike) or still had a large surge associated with it from when it used to be much stronger (like Katrina)?

It was probably part of the mapping process that determined the Cat 1 - 3 zones. Also, in some scenarios they tell you to add 1 to the category for storm surge flooding (full moon, multi-tide cycle flooding, etc.) so that could potentially be useful. Also, when the thousand year storm is just east of BLM and heading north, that isn't a good time to expand the SLOSH maps.

Nobody thought it would ever snow again in DC and look what happened in February 2010. Be prepared, as the boy scouts say.

[Logan11]

I'm sure it could flood along the East River - as in the FDR Drive and the east ends of the various streets, plus the South Street Seaport and the Battery, WTC area and Batteyr Park City. Beyond that the land rises a lot. They destroyed all the original topography in Manhattan which was somewhat ruggedly hilly ..but you climb steadily from each side.

I imagine places like College Point in Queens could be threatened.

A landfall just to east of NYC (even in Suffolk County) would inundate them also because they are very susceptible to NE winds piling water down from the sound-- this is why they were underwater in Donna. It's specific low lying areas in southern Manhattan up to about Canal Street, as well as large parts of Brooklyn and Queens which were also underwater in Donna and Dec 92.

[Logan11]

Maybe 1903 was the bad one I heard about.  I should have asked my grandmother when she was still alive.   she narrowly missed dying in the General Slocum boat disaster a year later. <br><br> 

In the NYC thread they're comparing the Euro to the 1903 Hurricane lol.

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder what is going to make this huge cane hook northeast at that point,...when it has so much forward momentum going NNE and is trucking along at a rapid speed.

Increasing westerlies with latitude, even if they are not overly strong, this is why they all do this as we get closer. Also less phasing with any trough as we get close...model love to overdo TC phasing with synoptic troughs.

[NorthShoreWx]

Maybe 1903 was the bad one I heard about.  I should have asked my grandmother when she was still alive.   she narrowly missed dying in the General Slocum boat disaster a year later. <br><br> 

http://www.northshorewx.com/Hurricane19030916.asp

[A-L-E-X]

Maybe 1903 was the bad one I heard about.  I should have asked my grandmother when she was still alive.   she narrowly missed dying in the General Slocum boat disaster a year later. <br><br> 

There were a few really bad ones back then, the climate must have been different lol (1804, 1815, 1821, 1846, 1858, 1878, 1893, 1903)-- and those are just the ones I can come up with off the top of my head. Apparently not as common now.

[A-L-E-X]

http://www.northshor...ane19030916.asp

Wow, thanks Ed! Do you also have any of the big ones from the 1800s on there? I'll search on there if so. Guess not, no 1893

[Logan11]

Ahh Well the new Euro isn't showing anything like that right. There's your ultimate NYC doomsday track nnw off the ocean into NJ just west of the city. I suppose one day it will happen.

http://www.northshor...ane19030916.asp

[Logan11]

Well my Dad did say that the winds were fierce in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn in the 1938 cane... But we know that one was much worse further east.

There were a few really bad ones back then, the climate must have been different lol (1804, 1815, 1821, 1846, 1858, 1878, 1893, 1903)-- and those are just the ones I can come up with off the top of my head. Apparently not as common now.

[A-L-E-X]

Ahh Well the new Euro isn't showing anything like that right. There's your ultimate NYC doomsday track nnw off the ocean into NJ just west of the city. I suppose one day it will happen.

Hopefully well before then we will be having some success at climate modification. I doubt anyone would ever want to see something like that, it would cripple the US economy for a decade.

[Logan11]

 

My family was in Brooklyn for every one of those canes you listed, but nobody alive to talk about them.

[A-L-E-X]

Well my Dad did say that the winds were fierce in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn in the 1938 cane... But we know that one was much worse further east.

Yup, parts of the city were flooded in 1938 too. Sustained hurricane force winds from a storm that actually landfalled in NYC (as far as I know) have only been experienced in NYC in 1821 and 1893.

But then you have a storm like Hazel which produced 113 mph wind gusts in southern Manhattan.

[wxsniss]

Not liking this... Irene keeps tripping over herself.

We had a nicer complete eye a few hours ago.

[A-L-E-X]

 

My family was in Brooklyn for every one of those canes you listed, but nobody alive to talk about them.

A couple of them occurred in October and produced massive snowstorms upstate

Actually looking back on it, October canes seem to have been much more common back then (landfalling ones in the NE at any rate.)