A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It almost looks like its moving just slight E of due north right now...but basically due north. That is bad for the western models to verify. Will, you would have been amused by this.... I know you have a good friend that works for WABC, but Lee Goldberg was showing the oddest maps tonight at 11-- he basically said that the model they were using (he didn't specify) had the hurricane not making landfall and passing east of both Montauk and Cape Cod. He then proceeded to show rainfall amounts and they were over 9" in Montauk but only 2" in the city. But then he was showing projected wind gusts, and he had 60-80 mph over NYC and 80-100 mph from JFK and all points east! He seemed to be surprised by the output of the model he was using (in terms of track and rainfall, not wind speeds) and I dont know if it was an Accuweather product or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When I used to vacation in Sag Harbor with my parents in the 70's many areas didn't get NYC on cable and we got our tv on the antenna from Hartford, New Haven and even PVD. Now that area has been completely taken over by NY weekenders...maybe a few potato farms left, but in the 70's it was all farms. The North Fork stayed more rural by going into vineyards. Thanks, Will-- looking at those black and white maps gives me an intense headache lol. BTW I thought that nyc metro referred to the entire tristate area-- things dont really get rural on Long Island unless you're in the middle or east end.... both the south and north shores are quite commercialized and unfortunately, have the big city feel to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just got the zoomed in GGEM maps on AccuWx...wanna say it makes landfall in C LI, but it's in between hours a bit. Def. not Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Euro is a tad east. Looks like JFK landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 TWSS What....not in my right mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Euro is a tad east. Looks like JFK landfall. And I'm a tad erect. Glad it didn't go farther east than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is def east of 12z....maybe a bit east of of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z EURO at 48 Love raleighs maps, but it gives you no idea if the center is onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Euro is a tad east. Looks like JFK landfall. Then to central mass from there. Will have to watch that bend to the east, but the euro moving just a tad east is sort of what we thought might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Euro is a tad east. Looks like JFK landfall. She'll come around eventually.....right? right? No. I'm kidding this is good. Trend back to the east has begun.....I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 926? Jesus tapdancing Christ. Obviously it's overdone, but still... Its at 964 mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Def hooks a little more east too after initial landfall...72h is between Kevin and ORH near Sturbridge vs near the CT/NY/MA border at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Its at 964 mb.. I meant at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks, Will-- looking at those black and white maps gives me an intense headache lol. BTW I thought that nyc metro referred to the entire tristate area-- things dont really get rural on Long Island unless you're in the middle or east end.... both the south and north shores are quite commercialized and unfortunately, have the big city feel to them I'm not feeling it. Seriously, south shore is much more densely populated. Many more people are at risk for storm surge flooding on the south shore, both because of population density and because it is a gradually sloping outwash plain. The north shore has some well known vulnerable areas, but along most of the north shore the sound is lined with high bluffs. There is no place like that on the south shore and no place to hide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Come EAST, Euro, come east! I have secured a house in Eastham on the cape for the weekend, just 100 yards off cape cod bay. It's about 30 feet ASL, so I'm sure I'll be fine. As it stands right now, NHC puts the track right over my house here in western MA. Wouldn't it suck to head to the cape for this thing when the real show could be at home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Euro is a tad east. Looks like JFK landfall. Well, I hope it stays there or a bit east lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Def hooks a little more east too after initial landfall...72h is between Kevin and ORH near Sturbridge vs near the CT/NY/MA border at 12z. In all seriousness, though...is this type of track still in play with the current motion of the storm. Maybe a bit more east like the GFS? The sat. loop is still not working for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'll stick with my Gloria track from Hatteras north... Even though I'd rather it went over about skiMRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a feeling this is bad for Narragansett bay....the trend faster and E means there could be serious issues on Sunday morning there. The slow trend east right now is a bad thing for that area. I have a feeling we could see a WST landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not feeling it. Seriously, south shore is much more densely populated. Many more people are at risk for storm surge flooding on the south shore, both because of population density and because it is a gradually sloping outwash plain. The north shore has some well known vulnerable areas, but along most of the north shore the sound is lined with high bluffs. There is no place like that on the south shore and no place to hide. I think your part of the north shore is absolutely gorgeous and probably the best part of the whole island in terms of where to live. The area I had in mind for being commercialized was more like NW Suffolk County, like areas around Huntington back to near the Nassau border and into Nassau County. The areas right near the Sound are much less commercialized of course, but once you get a bit south of there, there's a large number of office buildings and malls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Those with early access to 0Z EURO: How much of NC does it slice / does it remain off coast of NJ, or does it not make landfall at all below LI like 0Z NAM? Path thru central Mass is quite a bit more of a right hook after NYC compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I meant at 48 hours. Not that it matters, But it was at 968 mb @48, The map you saw was not right, Euro still came east from 12z and will have a huge impact for us up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a feeling this is bad for Narragansett bay....the trend faster and E means there could be serious issues on Sunday morning there. The slow trend east right now is a bad thing for that area. I have a feeling we could see a WST landfall. It does look like that general area is setting up to be near ground zero. Even if it's HVN or something..that's bad for Narragansett Bay. The wind field is scary, and those usually don't contract when the storms head north. If anything, they widen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When I used to vacation in Sag Harbor with my parents in the 70's many areas didn't get NYC on cable and we got our tv on the antenna from Hartford, New Haven and even PVD. Now that area has been completely taken over by NY weekenders...maybe a few potato farms left, but in the 70's it was all farms. The North Fork stayed more rural by going into vineyards. We used to get CT stations before we got cable. Mostly I remember channel 8.. Many of the FM radio stations are still CT, but LI has a few also (for those of you who still know what broadcast radio is ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a feeling this is bad for Narragansett bay....the trend faster and E means there could be serious issues on Sunday morning there. The slow trend east right now is a bad thing for that area. I have a feeling we could see a WST landfall. Surprisingly enough Newport really isn't vulnerable to storm surge unless it's a big-time 1938 or Carol type event. Gloria didn't do anything, and Bob's storm surge damage was minor. (Towns farther up the Bay have more storm surge issues.) If the Westerly track does verify I'd expect a more significant storm surge compared to Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It does look like that general area is setting up to be near ground zero. Even if it's HVN or something..that's bad for Narragansett Bay. The wind field is scary, and those usually don't contract when the storms head north. If anything, they widen. I think I'm favoring a CT/RI border landfall given the usual model biases at this range, but I'm actually slightly concerned for something a bit east of there. We are still 66 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think I'm favoring a CT/RI border landfall given the usual model biases at this range, but I'm actually slightly concerned for something a bit east of there. We are still 66 hours out. Nudity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a feeling this is bad for Narragansett bay....the trend faster and E means there could be serious issues on Sunday morning there. The slow trend east right now is a bad thing for that area. I have a feeling we could see a WST landfall. That would suck for here and the mayor would be mocked like he was in March 2001 lol. Some of my friends in Queens and Brooklyn (some of them live near where noreaster lives and they dont think they'd ever have to evacuate because they think their area is invulnerable) and are already saying this storm is nothing but hype and I was hoping to prove them wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think I'm favoring a CT/RI border landfall given the usual model biases at this range, but I'm actually slightly concerned for something a bit east of there. We are still 66 hours out. You held ground on this idea and seems to be unfolding! How much land track (NC, NJ) if any does 0Z Euro make prior to SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think I'm favoring a CT/RI border landfall given the usual model biases at this range, but I'm actually slightly concerned for something a bit east of there. We are still 66 hours out. I think that hook to the ne is key. Like we were saying earlier, it could hit ISP and then move over BOS or something like that. Maybe it occurs further north than that..but something to watch. Probably a good call right now. I'd say HVN ro UUU right now is probably the target zone. The other question is whether it's heading 020 when it makes landfall, or 050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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