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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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like the GFDL...I think its tended to be on the left side of guidance. The GFDL and UKMET were still suggesting a FL/Gulf threat while the other models had already turned the corner.

I've noted that the actual storm is jogging east of a lot of guidance at the moment, but that might just be wobble...but its something to note. The 12z Euro brought the storm west of due north between 06z and 12z Friday...that doesn't look like it will happen, but we'll have to keep an eye on it and also see what the 00z model says during that same time frame.

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I've noted that the actual storm is jogging east of a lot of guidance at the moment, but that might just be wobble...but its something to note. The 12z Euro brought the storm west of due north between 06z and 12z Friday...that doesn't look like it will happen, but we'll have to keep an eye on it and also see what the 00z model says during that same time frame.

It's been doing that for a few hours. There is a little sw shear which may be helping that motion, but yeah it could wobble nw for a few hours later on too.

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If you're driving home from Chicago ...I'd suggest crossing Ontario from DTW to BUF ... Save a ton on tolls, 100+ miles and nice highways... I came home that way last time.. Actually I crossed in Port Huron to Sarnia ...almost no toll on that bridge.<br><br>Caveat ..need the passport now or enhanced license of course.<br><br>

Nah we're in far SW MI. That DTW way is longer. Straight shot on 90 to Boston is the preferred and shortest miles wise. I'll bend over for the tolls.

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It's been doing that for a few hours. There is a little sw shear which may be helping that motion, but yeah it could wobble nw for a few hours later on too.

I do think the chance of a NNW track between 06z and 12z like the Euro showed is unraveling pretty quickly.

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The past month has been very wet, if you go back 60 days you can see it's actually been rather dry...but lots of rain over the past few weeks. Something that definitely would enhance wind damage potential.

60dPDeptNRCC.png

Yeah, I've had over a foot of rain in the past 10 days. It would flood here with just 1" of rain-- certainly a much worse set up than Floyd which ended a big drought.

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I took a nice interstate from sw Michigan to Lansing to Port Huron, but I'm sure you have calculated all the miles etc. :)

I worked in Chicago then had to get records in Lansing, MI otherwise I would never have done it, but it worked out.

They had some nice Lake Michigan LES on that route in Dec. <br><br>quote name='weathafella' timestamp='1314334240' post='916249']

Nah we're in far SW MI. That DTW way is longer. Straight shot on 90 to Boston is the preferred and shortest miles wise. I'll bend over for the tolls.

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at201109_model_zoom.gif

You can clearly see the Ukie/GFDL going NNW through 12z tomorrow...and to a lesser extent, the NOGAPS....that could be tough to achieve...the due northerly models look more correct at the moment, but we know some wobbles could change that. But as Scott said, the movement to the right of some of these forecasts has been going on for a good 3-4 hours now.

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I didn't think it was too plausible that it would make anything west of north with the axis of the NE trough dragging by to its north overnight. Now that passes off tomorrow.

You can clearly see the Ukie/GFDL going NNW through 12z tomorrow...and to a lesser extent, the NOGAPS....that could be tough to achieve...the due northerly models look more correct at the moment, but we know some wobbles could change that. But as Scott said, the movement to the right of some of these forecasts has been going on for a good 3-4 hours now.

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Cmc seems similar to gfs?

Met on main thread talking about hunter report

On the flip side... that outer eyewall is rather potent in its own right... this is 100 miles from the center of circulation and FL wind reports are still 100-110 knots... that's just insane. The NHC is going to have to seriously up their wind radii for the next advisory.

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Met on main thread talking about hunter report

On the flip side... that outer eyewall is rather potent in its own right... this is 100 miles from the center of circulation and FL wind reports are still 100-110 knots... that's just insane. The NHC is going to have to seriously up their wind radii for the next advisory.

Per Phil in the main thread, they are finding 100kt flight level winds 100 miles from the center in that second ring of convection.

3000 miles apart but still in synch lol

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