ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 like the GFDL...I think its tended to be on the left side of guidance. The GFDL and UKMET were still suggesting a FL/Gulf threat while the other models had already turned the corner. I've noted that the actual storm is jogging east of a lot of guidance at the moment, but that might just be wobble...but its something to note. The 12z Euro brought the storm west of due north between 06z and 12z Friday...that doesn't look like it will happen, but we'll have to keep an eye on it and also see what the 00z model says during that same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm nearly done with this pint of 101 Nice. Make sure you fill your bathtub up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice. Make sure you fill your bathtub up with it. Nah....I wanna live to see Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think Irene sounds like a classic hurricane name actually... Carol, Donna, Agnes, Belle,,,,,, Yep names like your grandmother etc.... Posted that earlier, west PAC has , Talas, nanmadol, manly beast names. Irene is your Aunt or the girl who never got married and lives with her elderly sistah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice. Make sure you fill your bathtub up with it. I will be ovah with the glasses and bubbles red eye flight FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Off to bed...working from 10-8 tomorrow...or I might go in at 11. Probably wake up between 5-7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For the moment at least, Irene is tracking clearly right of the NHC forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've noted that the actual storm is jogging east of a lot of guidance at the moment, but that might just be wobble...but its something to note. The 12z Euro brought the storm west of due north between 06z and 12z Friday...that doesn't look like it will happen, but we'll have to keep an eye on it and also see what the 00z model says during that same time frame. It's been doing that for a few hours. There is a little sw shear which may be helping that motion, but yeah it could wobble nw for a few hours later on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If you're driving home from Chicago ...I'd suggest crossing Ontario from DTW to BUF ... Save a ton on tolls, 100+ miles and nice highways... I came home that way last time.. Actually I crossed in Port Huron to Sarnia ...almost no toll on that bridge.<br><br>Caveat ..need the passport now or enhanced license of course.<br><br> Nah we're in far SW MI. That DTW way is longer. Straight shot on 90 to Boston is the preferred and shortest miles wise. I'll bend over for the tolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's been doing that for a few hours. There is a little sw shear which may be helping that motion, but yeah it could wobble nw for a few hours later on too. I do think the chance of a NNW track between 06z and 12z like the Euro showed is unraveling pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think Irene sounds like a classic hurricane name actually... Carol, Donna, Agnes, Belle,,,,,, Yep names like your grandmother etc.... Only because they are embedded in ur brain. My favorites, Ivan and Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The past month has been very wet, if you go back 60 days you can see it's actually been rather dry...but lots of rain over the past few weeks. Something that definitely would enhance wind damage potential. Yeah, I've had over a foot of rain in the past 10 days. It would flood here with just 1" of rain-- certainly a much worse set up than Floyd which ended a big drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am so stoked.......but seriously the wait is killin me.....I can't take 66 more hours of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Continental dry air on the west side is always an issue, hope this one does not have a bare rear end like Gloria, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I do think the chance of a NNW track between 06z and 12z like the Euro showed is unraveling pretty quickly. It looks like a more nrly course could happen during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 keep in mind the UKMET was the last major model to give up on Earl last night year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I took a nice interstate from sw Michigan to Lansing to Port Huron, but I'm sure you have calculated all the miles etc. I worked in Chicago then had to get records in Lansing, MI otherwise I would never have done it, but it worked out. They had some nice Lake Michigan LES on that route in Dec. <br><br>quote name='weathafella' timestamp='1314334240' post='916249'] Nah we're in far SW MI. That DTW way is longer. Straight shot on 90 to Boston is the preferred and shortest miles wise. I'll bend over for the tolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You can clearly see the Ukie/GFDL going NNW through 12z tomorrow...and to a lesser extent, the NOGAPS....that could be tough to achieve...the due northerly models look more correct at the moment, but we know some wobbles could change that. But as Scott said, the movement to the right of some of these forecasts has been going on for a good 3-4 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It looks like a more nrly course could happen during that time. I know it's necessary but tracking Irene's movement against the trop points 2 days out is enough to make my head explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cmc seems similar to gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I didn't think it was too plausible that it would make anything west of north with the axis of the NE trough dragging by to its north overnight. Now that passes off tomorrow. You can clearly see the Ukie/GFDL going NNW through 12z tomorrow...and to a lesser extent, the NOGAPS....that could be tough to achieve...the due northerly models look more correct at the moment, but we know some wobbles could change that. But as Scott said, the movement to the right of some of these forecasts has been going on for a good 3-4 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cmc seems similar to gfs? Met on main thread talking about hunter report On the flip side... that outer eyewall is rather potent in its own right... this is 100 miles from the center of circulation and FL wind reports are still 100-110 knots... that's just insane. The NHC is going to have to seriously up their wind radii for the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per Phil in the main thread, they are finding 100kt flight level winds 100 miles from the center in that second ring of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hard to believe, Record Flood, record snows, tornado,record hot day, earthquake, hurricane, just unreal really. I am stunned tonight. Al Gore must be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Met on main thread talking about hunter report On the flip side... that outer eyewall is rather potent in its own right... this is 100 miles from the center of circulation and FL wind reports are still 100-110 knots... that's just insane. The NHC is going to have to seriously up their wind radii for the next advisory. Per Phil in the main thread, they are finding 100kt flight level winds 100 miles from the center in that second ring of convection. 3000 miles apart but still in synch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Al Gore must be on to something. Fok him, hypocrit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Sat blackout ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GGEM looks like over E LI. No 66 hour plot until later so hard to see where it hits in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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