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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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yeah I think the highest I've seen on SHIPS is 108 kt. It actually does diagnose significant shear, 23 kt at 48 hours and 30 kt at 60 hours; however, since the shear direction and the storm motion are the same it sees the shear direction as favorable for intensification and only slight amount of issue with the magnitude...big negative factors in the algorithm are 200/250mb temp (lower tropopause) and SST.

Thanks. I could see this as 80 knots near the south coast. That would be a pretty solid storm....and I guess we can't completely rule out an 85 knot low end cat 2.

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Starting to breathe a little easier tonight, subtle shifts east, hopefully the gfs and euro shift east again. Looks like this tracks east of us now, minimizing the surge potential in wester li sound. Good luck to everyone further east, may your cane dreams come true:)

Looking forward to some good winds, which I have no issue with, my only concern is and was li sound flowing through my basement and first floor, which looks unlikely now.

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Starting to breathe a little easier tonight, subtle shifts east, hopefully the gfs and euro shift east again. Looks like this tracks east of us now, minimizing the surge potential in wester li sound. Good luck to everyone further east, may your cane dreams come true:)

Looking forward to some good winds, which I have no issue with, my only concern is and was li sound flowing through my basement and first floor, which looks unlikely now.

The surge could still be pretty bad for you I believe...not to be a jerk or anything...just sayin you aren't in the clear.

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The surge could still be pretty bad for you I believe...not to be a jerk or anything...just sayin you aren't in the clear.

LI sound is definitely still under the gun for big surge...even if it tracks over LI rather than NYC. Prolonged ENE winds.

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Here we go - JB tweets:

xBigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale ( incorporates pressure to give more realistic view of storms total power, rather than 1 minute wind

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This is a great read from storm2k...a reply to a post

He's one of the Hurricane Hunter Pilots.

Air Force Met:

These kind of demonstrative fact-based post ahead of anything verified sounds too much like me - lol.

Seriously, what is meant by the NC coast? That's a bit unclear to me... A significant part of that geography does not require an eye passing over enough land to impose substantial enough weakening. Just curious. A skim along the NC coast is a land fall but let's get real. Also, does the fact that this is already moving N ahead of schedule factor into those declarations??

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