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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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keep in mind tide times...big damage if this comes in at either 8 am or 8pm Sunday...much better if it comes in around 1 or 2pm.

The tides are astronomically high too which is really bad if it comes in at high tide. Already 2-3 feet higher than usual.

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Will, its tough to tell without obs from NC, but what could we expect for heavy rain fall wherever it sets up?

6-10 inches of rain as been pretty consistent on modeling and is also consistent with past storms up here. If you are about 50 mi left of the center, that will be the worst spot for rain. But the really heavy rainfall should be in a fairly wide swath...a good 75-100 miles anyway...but that absolute jackpot is probably in a narrower zone W of the center.

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6-10 inches of rain as been pretty consistent on modeling and is also consistent with past storms up here. If you are about 50 mi left of the center, that will be the worst spot for rain. But the really heavy rainfall should be in a fairly wide swath...a good 75-100 miles anyway...but that absolute jackpot is probably in a narrower zone W of the center.

Have you noticed that the models curving more when it hits LI, instead of carrying N still? I think thats why were seeing this shift east.

Epic euro run tonight.

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Not too much wind for CON/MHT.

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray.

Either way. Can we really complain?? At this point im arguing whether I want 10+ inches of rain with 60 gusts or 60-80+ gusts and a little rain.

Throws hands up in the air.

This storms awesome!

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You can just imagine the reaction if we see it jump 75 miles E tonight....with still 2-3 days worth of E trends left, lol. FWIW I doubt it comes that far E in one cycle, but I'd be fairly surprised if it stays as far west as it was at 12z.

Electric bath. Just pop a toaster in those already-full bathtubs.

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I don't know if you saw earlier...but the SHIPS is actually pretty bullish on intensity if it stays over water...doesn't see shear as a detriment. There have been a number of runs with around 85 kt at LI.

SHIPS has been handling the intensity pretty well so far hasn't it? I haven't kept a very close eye but I recall it showing the storm struggling to get to cat 3 and that seems to be the case. Its an interesting conundrum for this system as it approaches us...on one hand, you have a slower speed which means longer time over cooler waters, but on the other hand, the shear is less with much lighter upper level winds than is usual for storms that hit us, so I'll be interested to see how well it holds together....assuming it doesn't crash into the Delmarva and track up through S NJ.

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The NHC has it at 80 mph sustained winds at 42/73 ...near the CT/MA border just east of the NY line. That is wild because the 2K areas would be sustained at 90 or 100 maybe ....never mind gusts. There goes Pete's construction sites.

I assume it would still be 90 mph sustained around NYC in that scenario and higher in the tall buildings ..so a lot of glass in the streets from blown out windows.

Not too much wind for CON/MHT.

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray.

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This is a great read from storm2k...a reply to a post

He's one of the Hurricane Hunter Pilots.

Air Force Met:

Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.

This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting.

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.

If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.

Sorry I haven't posted much...but we've been pretty much swamped.

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SHIPS has been handling the intensity pretty well so far hasn't it? I haven't kept a very close eye but I recall it showing the storm struggling to get to cat 3 and that seems to be the case. Its an interesting conundrum for this system as it approaches us...on one hand, you have a slower speed which means longer time over cooler waters, but on the other hand, the shear is less with much lighter upper level winds than is usual for storms that hit us, so I'll be interested to see how well it holds together....assuming it doesn't crash into the Delmarva and track up through S NJ.

yeah I think the highest I've seen on SHIPS is 108 kt. It actually does diagnose significant shear, 23 kt at 48 hours and 30 kt at 60 hours; however, since the shear direction and the storm motion are the same it sees the shear direction as favorable for intensification and only slight amount of issue with the magnitude...big negative factors in the algorithm are 200/250mb temp (lower tropopause) and SST.

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