ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If we can see the forward speed increase to over 25 knots, we can't rule out a cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'll go with a Gloria like track.... I think that one just nipped Hatteras on the way up. lol well yeah of course...I'm talking about at landfall in Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 keep in mind tide times...big damage if this comes in at either 8 am or 8pm Sunday...much better if it comes in around 1 or 2pm. The tides are astronomically high too which is really bad if it comes in at high tide. Already 2-3 feet higher than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If we can see the forward speed increase to over 25 knots, we can't rule out a cat 2. Will, its tough to tell without obs from NC, but what could we expect for heavy rain fall wherever it sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 1944 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If we can see the forward speed increase to over 25 knots, we can't rule out a cat 2. I don't know if you saw earlier...but the SHIPS is actually pretty bullish on intensity if it stays over water...doesn't see shear as a detriment. There have been a number of runs with around 85 kt at LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Will, its tough to tell without obs from NC, but what could we expect for heavy rain fall wherever it sets up? 6-10 inches of rain as been pretty consistent on modeling and is also consistent with past storms up here. If you are about 50 mi left of the center, that will be the worst spot for rain. But the really heavy rainfall should be in a fairly wide swath...a good 75-100 miles anyway...but that absolute jackpot is probably in a narrower zone W of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 1944 redux Can you post the track? Tyia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Geesh - Thunderstorm outside and just had a two power spikes. Sign of things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My laptop can't get any higher. Not too much wind for CON/MHT.http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kmht/1954/8/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kcon/1954/8/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The eye and internal annular ring of convection together are spectacular on the recent imagery. I think the timing of these morphologies are behind the RECON - if that had happened an hour .5 from now we might have had a different update here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6-10 inches of rain as been pretty consistent on modeling and is also consistent with past storms up here. If you are about 50 mi left of the center, that will be the worst spot for rain. But the really heavy rainfall should be in a fairly wide swath...a good 75-100 miles anyway...but that absolute jackpot is probably in a narrower zone W of the center. Have you noticed that the models curving more when it hits LI, instead of carrying N still? I think thats why were seeing this shift east. Epic euro run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not too much wind for CON/MHT. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray. 38mph max gust seems a low, no? Not that it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 1944 redux AGTTDA As Ginxy thought two days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can you post the track? Tyia. Too far E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eastern outliers way east now.... http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eastern outliers way east now.... http://www.sfwmd.gov...20model%20plots Lets hope they stay outliers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not too much wind for CON/MHT. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kmht/1954/8/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kcon/1954/8/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray's. Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not too much wind for CON/MHT. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray. Either way. Can we really complain?? At this point im arguing whether I want 10+ inches of rain with 60 gusts or 60-80+ gusts and a little rain. Throws hands up in the air. This storms awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You can just imagine the reaction if we see it jump 75 miles E tonight....with still 2-3 days worth of E trends left, lol. FWIW I doubt it comes that far E in one cycle, but I'd be fairly surprised if it stays as far west as it was at 12z. Electric bath. Just pop a toaster in those already-full bathtubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't know if you saw earlier...but the SHIPS is actually pretty bullish on intensity if it stays over water...doesn't see shear as a detriment. There have been a number of runs with around 85 kt at LI. SHIPS has been handling the intensity pretty well so far hasn't it? I haven't kept a very close eye but I recall it showing the storm struggling to get to cat 3 and that seems to be the case. Its an interesting conundrum for this system as it approaches us...on one hand, you have a slower speed which means longer time over cooler waters, but on the other hand, the shear is less with much lighter upper level winds than is usual for storms that hit us, so I'll be interested to see how well it holds together....assuming it doesn't crash into the Delmarva and track up through S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can you post the track? Tyia. All three Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The NHC has it at 80 mph sustained winds at 42/73 ...near the CT/MA border just east of the NY line. That is wild because the 2K areas would be sustained at 90 or 100 maybe ....never mind gusts. There goes Pete's construction sites. I assume it would still be 90 mph sustained around NYC in that scenario and higher in the tall buildings ..so a lot of glass in the streets from blown out windows. Not too much wind for CON/MHT. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Electric bath. Just pop a toaster in those already-full bathtubs. Along with some bath salts, Oh wait you can't get them anymore..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I doubt it comes in at 8 am or pm.....prob catch a break as it comes in around midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is a great read from storm2k...a reply to a post He's one of the Hurricane Hunter Pilots. Air Force Met: Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting. Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays. This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees. If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic. Sorry I haven't posted much...but we've been pretty much swamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 SHIPS has been handling the intensity pretty well so far hasn't it? I haven't kept a very close eye but I recall it showing the storm struggling to get to cat 3 and that seems to be the case. Its an interesting conundrum for this system as it approaches us...on one hand, you have a slower speed which means longer time over cooler waters, but on the other hand, the shear is less with much lighter upper level winds than is usual for storms that hit us, so I'll be interested to see how well it holds together....assuming it doesn't crash into the Delmarva and track up through S NJ. yeah I think the highest I've seen on SHIPS is 108 kt. It actually does diagnose significant shear, 23 kt at 48 hours and 30 kt at 60 hours; however, since the shear direction and the storm motion are the same it sees the shear direction as favorable for intensification and only slight amount of issue with the magnitude...big negative factors in the algorithm are 200/250mb temp (lower tropopause) and SST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not too much wind for CON/MHT. http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA I'm still on the rain train for us. I hope this tracks right over Ray. Winter can't be far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is this the first time we'll have a good BOX radar for a 'cane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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