HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup, driving. I wonder if I'll see Jay at Towson? Look for the giant dude with no neck that has a laptop rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 looks like it NHC has bumped up the strength. . now has cat 1 into MASS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm suspicious of model runs that try to fade it NE after about 40N as if it were a Noreaster following the coastal plain from NYC to CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is true in the lower levels, but interestingly the 500mb sfc is stacked slightly W of that track - hmm Updated thoughts on damage tip? How much rain could actually fall here? BTW... your 5 paragraph monologue last night has been saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look up Carol. This is she 57 years later. That would be perfect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am hoping mid point between Euro and NAM. I dont want to see the Euro jump all the way to the NAM right now. If the Euro goes over Montauk tonight, I don't want to imagine the panic that would start setting in...with still 66-72 hours until landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I really don't think CNE could be in a better spot right now. Shift east, heavy rain, shift west, heavy wind. This is freakin awesome. Tick east AWT. Wind is better than rain, but yeah. I have a feeling the center of this thing will end up near my fanny in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I honestly think we get the Carol redux this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Relax..."if the east trend continues and the Euro follows suit" better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look up Carol. This is she 57 years later. Minus that weird kink east of Fl and intensity guidance, agreed... I've been buckin' for 20 M west of ORH and don't have any reason to go against that just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I honestly think we get the Carol redux this time. My laptop can't get any higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If the Euro goes over Montauk tonight, I don't want to imagine the panic that would start setting in...with still 66-72 hours until landfall. kevin told me he'd quit weather for a few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Relax..."if the east trend continues and the Euro follows suit" better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Minus that weird kink east of Fl and intensity guidance, agreed... I've been buckin' for 20 M west of ORH and don't have any reason to go against that just yet. Minus the intensity too. I don't see how this storm is as strong as Carol was when it makes landfall...but I certainly could be proven wrong. Esp if the forward speed keeps increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I honestly think we get the Carol redux this time. this won't be a Cat 3 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look up Carol. This is she 57 years later. In Massachusetts, the hurricane produced winds between 80 to 110 mph (130 to 180 km/h) across much of the eastern part of the state, while near the coast strong storm surges were reported. The winds left much of the eastern portion of the state without power.[8] In Boston, the spire of the historic Old North Church was blown down. Salt water, which moved inland as far as Route 6, killed thousands of trees; for decades after the storm the forest of white trees mixed with new growth was visible along the length of Massachusetts Route 88 between Route 6 and the Horseneck Beach area in Westport, Massachusetts.[cit Wikie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wind is better than rain, but yeah. I have a feeling the center of this thing will end up near my fanny in the end. With this storm, i'm not really sure. This will drop some epic rains where ever it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 kevin told me he'd quit weather for a few months You can just imagine the reaction if we see it jump 75 miles E tonight....with still 2-3 days worth of E trends left, lol. FWIW I doubt it comes that far E in one cycle, but I'd be fairly surprised if it stays as far west as it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I honestly think we get the Carol redux this time. I think Carol toppled the Old North Church steeple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 this won't be a Cat 3 though. I think it will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You can just imagine the reaction if we see it jump 75 miles E tonight....with still 2-3 days worth of E trends left, lol. FWIW I doubt it comes that far E in one cycle, but I'd be fairly surprised if it stays as far west as it was at 12z. Remember what I said this morning? We'll be crying for a shift west at 12z tomorrow lol. This is the most confident I'll felt though. GFS/NAM at E LI... Euro in NYC. Could it really be any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think it will be tomorrow. Up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think it will be tomorrow. lol well yeah of course...I'm talking about at landfall in Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I honestly think we get the Carol redux this time. Yeah, again...I like the track analog but this system will be bigger, albeit uncertain how intense it will be coming on board. I still like Will's thinking around a Cat 1 upper....maybe Cat 2 if shear doesn't get to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Who's watching the perfect storm on saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol well yeah of course...I'm talking about at landfall in Long Island. Pretty amazing if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 keep in mind tide times...big damage if this comes in at either 8 am or 8pm Sunday...much better if it comes in around 1 or 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Should someone start a new thread before the GFS and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Who's watching the perfect storm on saturday? Live version on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wind is better than rain, but yeah. I have a feeling the center of this thing will end up near my fanny in the end. Agreed. Per Wunderground and the NAM model run. Looking at wind specifically, as the center passes over land winds immediately to the northeast of the center seem to be nonexistant......reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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