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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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This is true in the lower levels, but interestingly the 500mb sfc is stacked slightly W of that track - hmm

Updated thoughts on damage tip? How much rain could actually fall here?

BTW... your 5 paragraph monologue last night has been saved.

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I am hoping mid point between Euro and NAM. I dont want to see the Euro jump all the way to the NAM right now.

If the Euro goes over Montauk tonight, I don't want to imagine the panic that would start setting in...with still 66-72 hours until landfall.

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I really don't think CNE could be in a better spot right now. Shift east, heavy rain, shift west, heavy wind. This is freakin awesome. Tick east AWT.

Wind is better than rain, but yeah. I have a feeling the center of this thing will end up near my fanny in the end.

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Minus that weird kink east of Fl and intensity guidance, agreed... I've been buckin' for 20 M west of ORH and don't have any reason to go against that just yet.

Minus the intensity too. I don't see how this storm is as strong as Carol was when it makes landfall...but I certainly could be proven wrong. Esp if the forward speed keeps increasing.

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Look up Carol. This is she 57 years later.

In Massachusetts, the hurricane produced winds between 80 to 110 mph (130 to 180 km/h) across much of the eastern part of the state, while near the coast strong storm surges were reported. The winds left much of the eastern portion of the state without power.[8] In Boston, the spire of the historic Old North Church was blown down. Salt water, which moved inland as far as Route 6, killed thousands of trees; for decades after the storm the forest of white trees mixed with new growth was visible along the length of Massachusetts Route 88 between Route 6 and the Horseneck Beach area in Westport, Massachusetts.[cit

Wikie..

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kevin told me he'd quit weather for a few months

You can just imagine the reaction if we see it jump 75 miles E tonight....with still 2-3 days worth of E trends left, lol. FWIW I doubt it comes that far E in one cycle, but I'd be fairly surprised if it stays as far west as it was at 12z.

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You can just imagine the reaction if we see it jump 75 miles E tonight....with still 2-3 days worth of E trends left, lol. FWIW I doubt it comes that far E in one cycle, but I'd be fairly surprised if it stays as far west as it was at 12z.

Remember what I said this morning? We'll be crying for a shift west at 12z tomorrow lol. This is the most confident I'll felt though. GFS/NAM at E LI... Euro in NYC. Could it really be any better?

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I honestly think we get the Carol redux this time.

Yeah, again...I like the track analog but this system will be bigger, albeit uncertain how intense it will be coming on board. I still like Will's thinking around a Cat 1 upper....maybe Cat 2 if shear doesn't get to it.

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Wind is better than rain, but yeah. I have a feeling the center of this thing will end up near my fanny in the end.

Agreed. Per Wunderground and the NAM model run. Looking at wind specifically, as the center passes over land winds immediately to the northeast of the center seem to be nonexistant......reasoning?

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