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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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The eyewall on radar continues to become better defined... I'd say its a better indicator of organization than enhanced IR at this point, although the IR presentation continues to improve as well.

The problem is we have FL winds of 90-95 knots nearly 100 miles away from the circulation center. What the storm has been doing is broadening its entire wind field rather than intensifying the winds closer to the core. However, there is some evidence that is changing, because the latest NOAA plane measured 100 knot winds very close to the center in the last pass (10 or so miles away)... 2-3 hours ago the 100 knot winds were located a good 40 miles form the center. The core is redeveloping per this data.

this from Phil who I think is a good tropical met/poster.

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Can't believe I've had SOOOO little time to follow this. With my family in NY the last two days, heading to Baltimore tomorrow, returning late Saturday/Saturday night.

I'm pulling for a good CT landfall so most folks can enjoy some great winds--and I can satisfy my qpf needs.

Hopefully in a car... will planes still be flying?

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NAM is basically Westerly, RI to BOS...flooding issues for interior but worst wind would be confined to the south coast of MA and the Cape in that track.

This is true in the lower levels, but interestingly the 500mb sfc is stacked slightly W of that track - hmm

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They don't really have a big reason to at this point, but they will once more models start trending east. They did this last year during Earl as well.

I am hoping mid point between Euro and NAM. I dont want to see the Euro jump all the way to the NAM right now.

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They don't really have a big reason to at this point, but they will once more models start trending east. They did this last year during Earl as well.

I really don't think CNE could be in a better spot right now. Shift east, heavy rain, shift west, heavy wind. This is freakin awesome. Tick east AWT.

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