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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I don't think the NAM is right...it's beating down the North Atlantic ridge in a way the GFS and the ECWMF aren't doing. It's verifying stronger with the northern shortwave between 48 and 72 hours....heights look to be about 5 dm lower over Nova Scotia.

Not to be a douche but I think that is why the NAM is actually right here... *(there's another reason in a minute). Said trough is actually IN the NAM's domain; the model tends to do better when it is relayed information directly. ...Just something I've noticed for winter cyclogen - haha, maybe the same doesn't apply here, but if the evolution above the Va Capes latitude is depended on accurately handling that trough, well...

The other reason is that this already moving N and has been for 2 or 3 hours... All those west runs are going to have an issue if this persists.

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My folks in the East Matunuck section of South Kingstown got the same type of call tonight, plus a heads up on possible evacuation. They said the marina they are at is empty except for a couple of the bigger boats that can't be trailered out. Also have friends in Misquamicut so we might have some company for the weekend. I'm only a few miles away in Peace Dale but at a whopping 26' above sea level.

Im lucky.. my girlfriend probably lives closest to the beach to not be in an evacuation zone. Gonna get some great pictures out of this thing

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Not to be a douche but I think that is why the NAM is actually right here... *(there's another reason in a minute). Said trough is actually IN the NAM's domain; the model tends to do better when it is relayed information directly. ...Just something I've noticed for winter cyclogen - haha, maybe the same doesn't apply here, but if the evolution above the Va Capes latitude is depended on accurately handling that trough, well...

The other reason is that this already moving N and has been for 2 or 3 hours... All those west runs are going to have an issue if this persists.

that much is true...but we know how accurate the NAM is outside of 48 hours. Personally I think the NAM is almost garbage...in most situations. I'd go with the 12/18z GFS and ECMWF synoptics over the 00z NAM synoptics..even with the 6 hour "advantage."

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