MarkO Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow, NAM is best porn I've seen all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Prob see 125 at 11 I don't think so...I haven't yet seen the winds to support anything higher than 100 kt...115 mph. Winds tend to lag the pressure sometime anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM is basically Bob...bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM is basically Bob...bit weaker Meh up here wind-wise, but pretty extreme rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think the NAM is right...it's beating down the North Atlantic ridge in a way the GFS and the ECWMF aren't doing. It's verifying stronger with the northern shortwave between 48 and 72 hours....heights look to be about 5 dm lower over Nova Scotia. Not to be a douche but I think that is why the NAM is actually right here... *(there's another reason in a minute). Said trough is actually IN the NAM's domain; the model tends to do better when it is relayed information directly. ...Just something I've noticed for winter cyclogen - haha, maybe the same doesn't apply here, but if the evolution above the Va Capes latitude is depended on accurately handling that trough, well... The other reason is that this already moving N and has been for 2 or 3 hours... All those west runs are going to have an issue if this persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think so...I haven't yet seen the winds to support anything higher than 100 kt...115 mph. Winds tend to lag the pressure sometime anyway. Right...good call. I'm half in the bag, at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NOAA plane got 942mb on dropsonde. that's about 5mb in 2 hours 40 minutes...not explosive but good deepening. Yeah, I think they might have caught a meso with that 937 - or error in instrumentation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM trending east... will the GFS follow to a certain degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Prob see 125 at 11 Theres no evidence this is 125, theres hardly evidence from recon that this is 115mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Meh up here wind-wise, but pretty extreme rain. Surge will trump Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Meh up here wind-wise, but pretty extreme rain. heavy, heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Track will lie between the Nam and Euro and will highly impact all of us up in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah, I think they might have caught a meso with that 937 - or error in instrumentation... 937.2mb was an extrapolation from 750mb...doesn't always work out to be perfect. Dropsonde is the most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My folks in the East Matunuck section of South Kingstown got the same type of call tonight, plus a heads up on possible evacuation. They said the marina they are at is empty except for a couple of the bigger boats that can't be trailered out. Also have friends in Misquamicut so we might have some company for the weekend. I'm only a few miles away in Peace Dale but at a whopping 26' above sea level. Im lucky.. my girlfriend probably lives closest to the beach to not be in an evacuation zone. Gonna get some great pictures out of this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a feeling by tomorrow morning we will want it to move west a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 heavy, heavy rain 7-8 inches? Probably enough to flood the Nashua River a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow nam LF in SW RI Fish on the next run? Can you imagine the weenies dropping from the sky of the Tobin bridge if that were to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Theres no evidence this is 125, theres hardly evidence from recon that this is 115mph Yes...brain cramp on my part...I just blindly went by pressure. 1) Winds lag pressure, as Nick remined me. 2) They never offically downgraded this to a cat 2, however they all but said it warranted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM is basically Westerly, RI to BOS...flooding issues for interior but worst wind would be confined to the south coast of MA and the Cape in that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Surge will trump Bob Depicted on the Nam, It comes thru here at high tide.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fish on the next run? Can you imagine the weenies dropping from the sky of the Tobin bridge if that were to play out. everything is coming together for a big NE hit. Big hurricane incoming, big big hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not to be a douche but I think that is why the NAM is actually right here... *(there's another reason in a minute). Said trough is actually IN the NAM's domain; the model tends to do better when it is relayed information directly. ...Just something I've noticed for winter cyclogen - haha, maybe the same doesn't apply here, but if the evolution above the Va Capes latitude is depended on accurately handling that trough, well... The other reason is that this already moving N and has been for 2 or 3 hours... All those west runs are going to have an issue if this persists. that much is true...but we know how accurate the NAM is outside of 48 hours. Personally I think the NAM is almost garbage...in most situations. I'd go with the 12/18z GFS and ECMWF synoptics over the 00z NAM synoptics..even with the 6 hour "advantage." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Track will lie between the Nam and Euro and will highly impact all of us up in New England This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Worst case. Trying to book earlier flight out of Phoenix... looks like our Saturday night flight has a good chance of being cancelled. Exactly what I feared would happen in your case. I didn't think they'd want planes stuck in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I like this track. Near the bullseye for rain and probably some high wind in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 WJAR had an excellent piece today with survivors of Carol and 1938. Excellent footage and interviews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM is basically Westerly, RI to BOS...flooding issues for interior but worst wind would be confined to the south coast of MA and the Cape in that track. No 64kt gusts in Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 937.2mb was an extrapolation from 750mb...doesn't always work out to be perfect. Dropsonde is the most accurate. I can't imagine it's higher than about 940, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow nam LF in SW RI Westerly to Messenger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No 64kt gusts in Tolland? Maybe at 900mb, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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