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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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wow..

The city is planning to shut down the entire transportation system on Saturday in anticipation of Hurricane Irene's arrival, officials revealed Thursday.<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "><br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/08/25/2011-08-25_before_hurricane_irene_hits_new_york_to_shut_down_entire_transportation_system_p.html#ixzz1W5wGqokQ

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IR imagery is really becoming impressive. Finally Irene really looks to be getting its act together. While everyone debated the track for the last 2 days I was always thinking Meh, this thing just does not look that formidable. That seems to be changing rapidly tonight.

It's too far n too ever acquire the classic "buzz saw" look, but I want to see a well defined and symetrical eye on IR....not this little irregular vagina.

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it's interesting that the SHIPS does not see shear as an issue as it approaches SNE. The main detriments that it has in the algorithm are 200-250mb temp and SST potential. 200mb divergence is shown as a positive to prevent rapid weakening.

[font=monospace][size=2]TIME (HR)          0 	6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120[/size][/font]
V (KT) NO LAND   100   100   101   104   105   102    99    92    82    63    46    33    23 [font=monospace][size=2]V (KT) LAND      100   100   101   104   105   102    82    74    43    31    28    31    21[/size][/font][font=monospace][size=2]LAT (DEG N) 	27.7  28.7  29.7  30.6  31.5  33.6  35.6  38.2  41.7  46.0  51.0  54.7  57.2[/size][/font]
LONG(DEG W) 	77.4  77.6  77.7  77.6  77.4  77.0  76.3  75.1  73.4  70.0  65.1  58.0  49.3 [font=monospace][size=2]STM SPEED (KT)    11    10 	9 	9    10    10    12    16    22    27    29    28    27[/size][/font]

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it's interesting that the SHIPS does not see shear as an issue as it approaches SNE. The main detriments that it has in the algorithm are 200-250mb temp and SST potential. 200mb divergence is shown as a positive to prevent rapid weakening.

[font=monospace][size=2]TIME (HR)          0 	6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120[/size][/font]
V (KT) NO LAND   100   100   101   104   105   102    99    92    82    63    46    33    23 [font=monospace][size=2]V (KT) LAND      100   100   101   104   105   102    82    74    43    31    28    31    21[/size][/font][font=monospace][size=2]LAT (DEG N) 	27.7  28.7  29.7  30.6  31.5  33.6  35.6  38.2  41.7  46.0  51.0  54.7  57.2[/size][/font]
LONG(DEG W) 	77.4  77.6  77.7  77.6  77.4  77.0  76.3  75.1  73.4  70.0  65.1  58.0  49.3 [font=monospace][size=2]STM SPEED (KT)    11    10 	9 	9    10    10    12    16    22    27    29    28    27[/size][/font]

Norcross just gave a great explanation of that.

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it's interesting that the SHIPS does not see shear as an issue as it approaches SNE. The main detriments that it has in the algorithm are 200-250mb temp and SST potential. 200mb divergence is shown as a positive to prevent rapid weakening.
[font=monospace][size=2]TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120[/size][/font] V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 101 104 105 102 99 92 82 63 46 33 23 [font=monospace][size=2]V (KT) LAND 100 100 101 104 105 102 82 74 43 31 28 31 21[/size][/font][font=monospace][size=2]LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.6 31.5 33.6 35.6 38.2 41.7 46.0 51.0 54.7 57.2[/size][/font] LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.6 77.7 77.6 77.4 77.0 76.3 75.1 73.4 70.0 65.1 58.0 49.3 [font=monospace][size=2]STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 10 12 16 22 27 29 28 27[/size][/font]

Thanks, Nick....nice find. This should not collapse, unless it fu**s the duck and gets too far west\inland.
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Well guys, we asked for it. Skims NC, bounces NNE, heavy heavy chainsaw action for us. Timing is everything for the RI coast, surge Cat is one Cat above wind, that's 5-8 feet above high tide with 20 footers, gonna be some barrier beach areas destroyed if this comes in at high tide in center LI at a right angle.

woohoo

getting excited

Im in walking distance to a private beach.... won't have to worry about cops not letting us in.

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Thanks, Nick....nice find.

This should not collapse, unless it fu**s the dug and gets too far west\inland.

big difference between land and water there, obviously. SHIPS has been thinking a low-end Cat 2 landfall in LI if it stays over water the past few days. It actually has shear magnitude as a very minor negative factor and shear direction as more significant positive factor (shear and storm motion vectors are the same direction)

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woohoo

getting excited

Im in walking distance to a private beach.... won't have to worry about cops not letting us in.

Where?, barrier beach?, I would not get in between the coastal ponds and the ocean.Now a spot on a terminal moraine ..... Watch hill RI would be cool, in the brand new Ocean House.

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