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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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looks a little suspect to me...gusts only 5 kts higher than sustained? I kind of thought that if we were at 55kts sustained gusts would be to like 75kts

I'm sure that would come up when they update it next. Could perhaps be some sort of error but given how were still far out probably don't want to go all crazy.

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GFS/HWRF/GFDL all swung a bit east from their 12z to 18z runs....need this to continue the next 3 or 4 runs...

:huh:

Major differences between the 18Z GFDL and HWRF- GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA, HWRF way way east, misses Hatteras completely, landfall Block Island.
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It may look nice, but I don't trust any of it....I remember a few days before Earl it was showing 90+ gusts on outter Cape at one point. Lets just say the farts in my car while I was sleeping in a Chattham parking lot were more impressive!

Well there was a much larger room for error with Earl than this I believe, especially given where it was coming from. At least with Irene it's pressed close to the cost and with that strong ridge in the central Atlantic it could be difficult for this to budge far enough east to give us nil effects.

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Well there was a much larger room for error with Earl than this I believe, especially given where it was coming from. At least with Irene it's pressed close to the cost and with that strong ridge in the central Atlantic it could be difficult for this to budge far enough east to give us nil effects.

Valid points. I suppose if Earl had passed West and we were on the East side on the cape we maybe would have yielded those gaudy numbers those graphics were presenting.

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DT commented on Ryan;s status that Irene is bombing out...I disagree, but it is what it is.

the erc appears complete....single eyewall at 25nm...pressure has fallen pretty sharply in the last few hours...however, the microwave imagery isn't super impressive...there's that mote around the eyewall. It probably does get stronger, but like you said, not too much stronger.

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the erc appears complete....single eyewall at 25nm...pressure has fallen pretty sharply in the last few hours...however, the microwave imagery isn't super impressive...there's that mote around the eyewall. It probably does get stronger, but like you said, not too much stronger.

I very much like the NHC intensity forecast.

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Valid points. I suppose if Earl had passed West and we were on the East side on the cape we maybe would have yielded those gaudy numbers those graphics were presenting.

Plus Earl did not really speed up with it's forward momentum I believe and that really lead to more rapid weakening so it didn't impact the area as strong as it appeared it would. Despite all the excitement though plenty of mets here still had major questions about whether it would impact like some forecasts were saying. I know Ryan was one.

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