Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS/HWRF/GFDL all swung a bit east from their 12z to 18z runs....need this to continue the next 3 or 4 runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow...this is for 8 PM Sunday: sustained Gusts: looks a little suspect to me...gusts only 5 kts higher than sustained? I kind of thought that if we were at 55kts sustained gusts would be to like 75kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://www.facebook....149814351731023 Perfect thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Matt Noyes thinks New London give or take 60 miles anybody could say that and have a 75% chance of being right right now haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does the Thames have a hurricane barrier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 From OKX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It may look nice, but I don't trust any of it....I remember a few days before Earl it was showing 90+ gusts on outter Cape at one point. Lets just say the farts in my car while I was sleeping in a Chattham parking lot were more impressive! Wow...this is for 8 PM Sunday: sustained Gusts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 looks a little suspect to me...gusts only 5 kts higher than sustained? I kind of thought that if we were at 55kts sustained gusts would be to like 75kts I'm sure that would come up when they update it next. Could perhaps be some sort of error but given how were still far out probably don't want to go all crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS/HWRF/GFDL all swung a bit east from their 12z to 18z runs....need this to continue the next 3 or 4 runs... Major differences between the 18Z GFDL and HWRF- GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA, HWRF way way east, misses Hatteras completely, landfall Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It may look nice, but I don't trust any of it....I remember a few days before Earl it was showing 90+ gusts on outter Cape at one point. Lets just say the farts in my car while I was sleeping in a Chattham parking lot were more impressive! Well there was a much larger room for error with Earl than this I believe, especially given where it was coming from. At least with Irene it's pressed close to the cost and with that strong ridge in the central Atlantic it could be difficult for this to budge far enough east to give us nil effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe we should try IRC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Does the Thames have a hurricane barrier? No, not needed, pretty sharp banks until the headwaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not sure why the confusion. Both those statements are correct and not contradictory. I never compared the 3 models to each other. I was saying that all 3 compared to themselves shifted east from 12z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT commented on Ryan's status that Irene is bombing out...I disagree, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well there was a much larger room for error with Earl than this I believe, especially given where it was coming from. At least with Irene it's pressed close to the cost and with that strong ridge in the central Atlantic it could be difficult for this to budge far enough east to give us nil effects. Valid points. I suppose if Earl had passed West and we were on the East side on the cape we maybe would have yielded those gaudy numbers those graphics were presenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT commented on Ryan;s status that Irene is bombing out...I disagree, but it is what it is. the erc appears complete....single eyewall at 25nm...pressure has fallen pretty sharply in the last few hours...however, the microwave imagery isn't super impressive...there's that mote around the eyewall. It probably does get stronger, but like you said, not too much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the erc appears complete....single eyewall at 25nm...pressure has fallen pretty sharply in the last few hours...however, the microwave imagery isn't super impressive...there's that mote around the eyewall. It probably does get stronger, but like you said, not too much stronger. I very much like the NHC intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i'm very excited for you people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT says cat 4 by tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Noyes was also talking about the possibility of a Cat 2 up here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT commented on Ryan's status that Irene is bombing out...I disagree, but it is what it is. It really cant seem to get itself going. Every time it looks like its going to make that jump the "eye" fills back in. Also some heavy shear to its N and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT says cat 4 by tomorrow Can I get some of the crack he is smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Valid points. I suppose if Earl had passed West and we were on the East side on the cape we maybe would have yielded those gaudy numbers those graphics were presenting. Plus Earl did not really speed up with it's forward momentum I believe and that really lead to more rapid weakening so it didn't impact the area as strong as it appeared it would. Despite all the excitement though plenty of mets here still had major questions about whether it would impact like some forecasts were saying. I know Ryan was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 OT but thunder rumbling up here in W. Ma. Looks like some pretty good rain showers moving in especially down towards the pike south. Nothing like saturating the ground as a warm up to the weekend fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i'm very excited for you people I hope to have my power back before October 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT commented on Ryan's status that Irene is bombing out...I disagree, but it is what it is. are you checking the latest pics.. looking better and better, new convection firing up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 DT says cat 4 by tomorrow One of us is gonna be wrong lol Don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z hwrf FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 JB is calling for 80 mph gusts in Baltimore and DC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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