CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wouldn't it be a riot to see ACK get the least amount of effect from a northeast hurricane? It's happened before. Carol, 38, Gloria.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 do i need to send some blade servers to American for Xmas? It's likely a database issue. We have someone looking at it now. We had more people than this on in winter with fewer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1. More surge potential than normal. Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/ Could not agree more....wind will be Gloria, at WORST.....not the big story. Surge will be devestating, as long as this doesn't go waaaay west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those 18z dynamic models are showing a bigger hook once it reaches than their 12z counterparts. Just like the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1. More surge potential than normal. Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/ If it came over Bridgeport it would match what Bertha did in July 1996. That's my ideal track. Hopefully it stays a cane on that track, unlike Bertha, which was a 65 mph tropical storm with gusts close to 80 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18z early-cycle out...definitely more clustering towards the western side of things...still very interesting to see that I don't think it's clustering at all. There's just way more discrepancy.. they have it going from Albany to ack that's like 300 miles.. whereas yesterday it was from ack to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1. More surge potential than normal. Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/ I'm guessing high gust in Falmout is 62mph at Otis, 60 at Plymouth. Just a guess, thinking NC and some other land down there tears this up pretty good broadening the windfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1. More surge potential than normal. Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/ Ryan, great write-up.....Even if it is as far east as you think it could be, a low end CAT 1 is still a disappointment considering all the hysteria....But the loss of power for the northeast could be historic and this could be the biggest headline from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene is really monstrous in size...wow...nice outflow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Extremely important night to monitor the track and orientation of this thing.. an hour quicker turn could mean 5-10 miles up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those 18z dynamic models are showing a bigger hook once it reaches than their 12z counterparts. Just like the globals. Changing the 18 to a 12 in the hotlinked image from Wiz, they look to have come east up here on the whole. More of the pronounced hook that Will was anticipating would start to show as we got closer to 48 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's likely a database issue. We have someone looking at it now. We had more people than this on in winter with fewer issues. Here's a suggestion to consider: Post all updates on server status while it's down on your Facebook page... http://www.facebook.com/pages/American-Wx-Forums/149814351731023 That way we can all follow what is going on if it's down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Starting to think it makes a landfall in Nassau county, NY and then moves NNEward into eastern CT and up to just west of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ryan, what would you expect surge to be in the western sound at high tide cycles on sunday, any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene is really monstrous in size...wow...nice outflow too. Much like Gloria was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1. More surge potential than normal. Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/ Good post, Ryan. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If it came over Bridgeport it would match what Bertha did in July 1996. That's my ideal track. Hopefully it stays a cane on that track, unlike Bertha, which was a 65 mph tropical storm with gusts close to 80 mph here. Alex, can you give us the official gusts in your area for Bertha, because I don't remember it being as severe as you recall. Sure, the NHC labeled it a 65MPH TS, but these winds rarely make it the ground once these storms have been inland for so long and NHC often fudges the intensity with their advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is all hope lost for my area as far as a hard hit goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm guessing high gust in Falmout is 62mph at Otis, 60 at Plymouth. Just a guess, thinking NC and some other land down there tears this up pretty good broadening the windfield. Sitting here in my condo that is waterfront at New Seabury I have for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could not agree more....wind will be Gloria, at WORST.....not the big story. Surge will be devestating, as long as this doesn't go waaaay west. Don't underestimate the wind potential... especially within 50 miles of the track (especially in CT and RI). A long duration storm is going to wind up being much more damaging than Gloria and Gloria was exceptionally disruptive here in CT. I don't like the look of this thing in terms of duration of wind on south coast. Tide will be important... I think we may get lucky with a low tide hit here but can't say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is all hope lost for my area as far as a hard hit goes? Lol, why would it be? The GFS track crushes pretty much all of us. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lol, why would it be? The GFS track crushes pretty much all of us. Sit back and enjoy the ride. The good thing is everyone fully expects a turn east 48 hours out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 With respect to the wind, is there a rule of thumb as to the wind speed delta as you climb in elevation? How about the funnel effects in the river valleys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is all hope lost for my area as far as a hard hit goes? Yes. If you gust above 55 consider yourself lucky. Your area is prone to huge snowstorms....they'll end up having a higher impact than Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ryan when do you expect tropical storm or hurricane watches to be issued for the new england area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ryan, Incredible write-up! Excellent job depicting all scenarios and outlying the potential hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 im honestly getting nervous, storm surge products are pretty frightening for this part of the sound, and being a few feet above sea level with the saltwater marsh only a couple hundred yards away is not helping. Town of Fairfield still going with storm surge of 5-9 ft, I wonder when they will make the decision to evacuate. You can always make your own decision. Flooding is scary for a reason (it's deadly), no shame in getting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like she's intensifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Alex, can you give us the official gusts in your area for Bertha, because I don't remember it being as severe as you recall. Sure, the NHC labeled it a 65MPH TS, but these winds rarely make it the ground once these storms have been inland for so long and NHC often fudges the intensity with their advisories. The number that sticks out in my mind is a 77 mph gust at Babylon, NY.... that's the highest I remember from that storm. You're right, there were only a couple or maybe three hurricane force wind gust reports from that storm, and they were all clustered in the mid and upper 70s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 im honestly getting nervous, storm surge products are pretty frightening for this part of the sound, and being a few feet above sea level with the saltwater marsh only a couple hundred yards away is not helping. Town of Fairfield still going with storm surge of 5-9 ft, I wonder when they will make the decision to evacuate. If evacuations are ordered for anywhere in CT...I imagine we'll hear about them first thing in the morning. Watches should be up by that point and we'll be within 48 hours. I'm at least thankful my house sits several miles inland and I don't have to worry about surge related flooding/damage. And if the track stays west as progged...I'm much less concerned about the flooding factor. Have you made any preparations at your place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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