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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1.

More surge potential than normal.

Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/

Could not agree more....wind will be Gloria, at WORST.....not the big story.

Surge will be devestating, as long as this doesn't go waaaay west.

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My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1.

More surge potential than normal.

Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/

If it came over Bridgeport it would match what Bertha did in July 1996. That's my ideal track. Hopefully it stays a cane on that track, unlike Bertha, which was a 65 mph tropical storm with gusts close to 80 mph here.

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18z early-cycle out...definitely more clustering towards the western side of things...still very interesting to see that

aal09_2011082518_track_early.png

I don't think it's clustering at all. There's just way more discrepancy.. they have it going from Albany to ack that's like 300 miles.. whereas yesterday it was from ack to orh

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My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1.

More surge potential than normal.

Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/

I'm guessing high gust in Falmout is 62mph at Otis, 60 at Plymouth. Just a guess, thinking NC and some other land down there tears this up pretty good broadening the windfield.

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My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1.

More surge potential than normal.

Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/

Ryan, great write-up.....Even if it is as far east as you think it could be, a low end CAT 1 is still a disappointment considering all the hysteria....But the loss of power for the northeast could be historic and this could be the biggest headline from this event.

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Those 18z dynamic models are showing a bigger hook once it reaches than their 12z counterparts. Just like the globals.

Changing the 18 to a 12 in the hotlinked image from Wiz, they look to have come east up here on the whole. More of the pronounced hook that Will was anticipating would start to show as we got closer to 48 hours....

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It's likely a database issue. We have someone looking at it now. We had more people than this on in winter with fewer issues.

Here's a suggestion to consider:

Post all updates on server status while it's down on your Facebook page...

http://www.facebook.com/pages/American-Wx-Forums/149814351731023

That way we can all follow what is going on if it's down.

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If it came over Bridgeport it would match what Bertha did in July 1996. That's my ideal track. Hopefully it stays a cane on that track, unlike Bertha, which was a 65 mph tropical storm with gusts close to 80 mph here.

Alex, can you give us the official gusts in your area for Bertha, because I don't remember it being as severe as you recall. Sure, the NHC labeled it a 65MPH TS, but these winds rarely make it the ground once these storms have been inland for so long and NHC often fudges the intensity with their advisories.

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Could not agree more....wind will be Gloria, at WORST.....not the big story.

Surge will be devestating, as long as this doesn't go waaaay west.

Don't underestimate the wind potential... especially within 50 miles of the track (especially in CT and RI). A long duration storm is going to wind up being much more damaging than Gloria and Gloria was exceptionally disruptive here in CT. I don't like the look of this thing in terms of duration of wind on south coast.

Tide will be important... I think we may get lucky with a low tide hit here but can't say for sure.

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im honestly getting nervous, storm surge products are pretty frightening for this part of the sound, and being a few feet above sea level with the saltwater marsh only a couple hundred yards away is not helping.

Town of Fairfield still going with storm surge of 5-9 ft, I wonder when they will make the decision to evacuate.

You can always make your own decision. Flooding is scary for a reason (it's deadly), no shame in getting out.

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Alex, can you give us the official gusts in your area for Bertha, because I don't remember it being as severe as you recall. Sure, the NHC labeled it a 65MPH TS, but these winds rarely make it the ground once these storms have been inland for so long and NHC often fudges the intensity with their advisories.

The number that sticks out in my mind is a 77 mph gust at Babylon, NY.... that's the highest I remember from that storm. You're right, there were only a couple or maybe three hurricane force wind gust reports from that storm, and they were all clustered in the mid and upper 70s lol.

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im honestly getting nervous, storm surge products are pretty frightening for this part of the sound, and being a few feet above sea level with the saltwater marsh only a couple hundred yards away is not helping.

Town of Fairfield still going with storm surge of 5-9 ft, I wonder when they will make the decision to evacuate.

If evacuations are ordered for anywhere in CT...I imagine we'll hear about them first thing in the morning. Watches should be up by that point and we'll be within 48 hours. I'm at least thankful my house sits several miles inland and I don't have to worry about surge related flooding/damage. And if the track stays west as progged...I'm much less concerned about the flooding factor. Have you made any preparations at your place?

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