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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I've heard of 'canes pulling down cooler air behind them, but Thursday looks rather bone-chilling:

CTZ009-260830-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-

401 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY

PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND

5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY

WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF

RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY AND VERY WINDY AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE

UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO EAST 25 TO

35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE

MID 70S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 60S.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO

AROUND 75 BELOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

DayAfter-b.jpg

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I've heard of 'canes pulling down cooler air behind them, but Thursday looks rather bone-chilling:

CTZ009-260830-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-

401 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

..

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO

AROUND 75 BELOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

MRG's hacking skills have improved

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There is about a 3 hour difference in high tides between the South Shore of LI and the CT coastline on Sunday. High tide along the South Shore of LI is around 8 PM, while across the CT coast it's around 11 PM.

Current guidance brings the center to the latitude of the South Shore of LI around or a few hours before high tide on Sunday.

High tide in Watch Hill, RI on 8/28 is 8:38 PM.

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There is about a 3 hour difference in high tides between the South Shore of LI and the CT coastline on Sunday. High tide along the South Shore of LI is around 8 PM, while across the CT coast it's around 11 PM.

Current guidance brings the center to the latitude of the South Shore of LI around or a few hours before high tide on Sunday.

Tides in RI at the exposed Barrier beaches are 8 ish.

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Yeah, but often times a lot of these unofficial reports are bogus.

Here are some peak gusts/direction that I found for Bertha (7/13/1996) and rainfall where available. Wind speeds in MPH:

ISP - 39 - SE, 2.91"

FRG - 30 - SSE

FOK - 25 - S

JFK - 37 - ESE - 1.45"

BDR - 39 - SE - 2.25"

LGA - 43 - SE - 1.47"

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So as of right now... the place to be in Rhode Island will probably be Westerly? Anyone else thinking of going to Masquamicut?

If you do, the beach are will be shut down, Shore Road south will be Off Limits, Watch Hill will be blocked, basically you will not get near the barrier beaches.

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And we're back...!

All of NE may get raped by Irene.

Hey Fella, great to see this kind of fun in the middle of August...

For those Boston metro / Eastern Mass interests, here's an interesting link to effects of Gloria 1985 on Arnold Arboretum (located just SW of Boston), with some impressive photos:

http://arnoldia.arboretum.harvard.edu/pdf/articles/679.pdf

An excerpt:

"As Gloria continued up the coast, however, it took a more northwesterly course than the 1938 hurricane had done and, travelling along the coastline rather than over open water, steadily diminished. It travelled up the Connecticut River valley some 50 miles to the west of the course that would have brought the brunt of the storm through eastern Massachusetts, thus sparing the Boston area its full force. In the Boston area, Gloria’s wind speed hardly reached hurricane force (74-75 m.p.h.). (.Sustained winds of between 50 and 60 m.p.h. were felt for about two hours, with a maximum speed of 76 m.p.h. recorded at 4:08 PM by the U.S. Weather Bureau. The Blue Hill Observatory recorded gusts of 103 m.p.h. By contrast, sustained winds of over 60 m.p.h. were recorded for nearly four hours in 1938; the U.S. Weather Bureau recorded a maximum speed of 87 m.p.h., and the Blue Hill Observatory reported gusts m excess of 150 Another contrast between the two storms was in the amount of rainfall associated with them. In 1938, the hurricane was preceded by four days of soaking rain, and the sodden ground provided no anchor against the wind. Gloria brought an official 0.28 inch at Boston’s Logan Airport, although the weather station at the Arboretum’s Dana Greenhouses recorded 0.47 inch.

Despite its shortcomings in the eyes of Boston’s stormlovers, some 25 of whom gathered atop Peter’s Hill during the peak of the storm, Gloria left its mark on the Arboretum. The staff who follow us will find record notations, archive photographs, and scarred trees to document the immediate loss of 45 trees and major damage to another 100 in the collection, and the loss of approximately 30 native trees from the Arboretum’s natural areas and 20 from the Case Estates woods."

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Winds gusted over 40 here on the hill for awhile this afternoon. She keeps going west like the 18z, and I'll be lucky to get much higher than that Sunday.

18zatcfearlyinvest2best.gif

I can't even look at that image...disgusts me and only getting worse. Just awful that you'll have to leave the Cape to chase a NE hurricane.

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im honestly getting nervous, storm surge products are pretty frightening for this part of the sound, and being a few feet above sea level with the saltwater marsh only a couple hundred yards away is not helping.

Town of Fairfield still going with storm surge of 5-9 ft, I wonder when they will make the decision to evacuate.

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My gut is telling me landfall between Newport and Bridgeport as a 65 knot cat 1.

More surge potential than normal.

Posted a lot on my blog if you want to check out some of the specifics for CT http://ryanhanrahan....ld-be-underway/

Awesome write up dude. Just a crippling situation coming up for us. This is what it's all about

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