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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Not sold on any rapid intensification, despite the impressive cloud tops forming around the eye atm, west side is still being affected by shear it appears, plus the large size of the storm will make it harder to ramp up winds.

I agree....been saying that; I won't be suprised if it just skunks out around it's current intensity....maybe 10mb\mph fluctatuons.

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I am HOPING and PRAYING, the Carolinas absorb this storm, and or the eye stays on land for most of the track north and gets rapidly diminished.

Anything is possible.

Unless you live directly across the street from the sound in West Haven your hysteria is unwarranted. There aren't any mobile homes in West Haven. You'll be fine. There are a lot of big ole trees in West Haven...they don't call the streets Oak and Elm for nothing...and this is the only concern you should have. But until then...don't worry.

All this hysteria on tv is scaring a lot of people unnecessarily.

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From the main thread..multiquote not working

Euro very slight east shift at 60. HWRF shifted a fair bit east, GFDL similar to previous but faster

I've noticed multiquote only works with compatibility mode on in IE9.

That's "good" news...I think aside of some of the other models...GFS/EURO/HWRF/CMC all rail most of us.

HWRF looks like 940 as it strikes into CT or RI after hitting LI. UGLY

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COX doesn't offer NECN in Rhode Island. I guess I'm not missing much.

Schwoegler was forecasting winds up to 200 MPH during Gloria.

damn I miss that guy.. he predicted the most intense weather

the one thing I remember most most was a 20-30" snowfall prediction he made that ended up 0

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There is about a 3 hour difference in high tides between the South Shore of LI and the CT coastline on Sunday. High tide along the South Shore of LI is around 8 PM, while across the CT coast it's around 11 PM.

Current guidance brings the center to the latitude of the South Shore of LI around or a few hours before high tide on Sunday.

Now that's the first good news I have heard :) Thanks! Everyone is all doom and gloom here with this occurring at high tide (or across several high tides a la Dec 92 heh.)
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I've heard of 'canes pulling down cooler air behind them, but Thursday looks rather bone-chilling:

CTZ009-260830-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-

401 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY

PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND

5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY

WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF

RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY AND VERY WINDY AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE

UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO EAST 25 TO

35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE

MID 70S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 60S.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO

AROUND 75 BELOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

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