Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well, we'll see if Messenger's NAM rule applies to the 12z suite...hinted east. Past 36 hours who cares what it has. Just took a quick look, some changes aloft kind of early on. Been a harbinger for about 4 main runs now, it's east and I think it's faster and both of those things if they carry to the other globals would keep it from going any futher west and probably tick it east some. NAM is a nice track for us if you like death and destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There are subtle elements all over the place, making this difficult..even to the east in the Atlantic. All you can do is talk about it, but we've pretty much beaten down the options here. Not much more you can say except that we are still pretty far out in time and things will likely change in several departments. Safest thing to say is it will have some impact up here on most all of us in one way shape or form, The only real question is how much of one minor or major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM goes NW from 66-72 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM skirting the NJ coast making a beeline for the W end of LI, similar to the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just took a quick look, some changes aloft kind of early on. Been a harbinger for about 4 main runs now, it's east and I think it's faster and both of those things if they carry to the other globals would keep it from going any futher west and probably tick it east some. NAM is a nice track for us if you like death and destruction. Sounds perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 should probably just let the run finish...but whatever that's what we do here...LOL.... new NAM looks like it would be a c/e LI hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just took a quick look, some changes aloft kind of early on. Been a harbinger for about 4 main runs now, it's east and I think it's faster and both of those things if they carry to the other globals would keep it from going any futher west and probably tick it east some. NAM is a nice track for us if you like death and destruction. Appetite For Destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 jconsor posted this about surge potential. It already is pretty substantial if you go by this scale. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 should probably just let the run finish...but whatever that's what we do here...LOL.... new NAM looks like it would be a c/e LI hit. It's like all of you have said and we've all noticed beyond about 36 or so it's not that helpful...I like the change we are seeing even prior to that aloft, the trend of less interaction seems to have stopped in this one model...and we at least initially have a turn. Let's see what happens, at least this one wasn't into Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM goes NW from 66-72 lol no due North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 jconsor posted this about surge potential. It already is pretty substantial if you go by this scale. http://www.aoml.noaa...irene2011/wind. I think you may almost be able to tack on a Saffir Simpson category to surge potential in LIS compared to a typical SNE cane due to slow forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 should probably just let the run finish...but whatever that's what we do here...LOL.... new NAM looks like it would be a c/e LI hit. Yeah it's curling away from the C.NJ coast heading off in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 jconsor posted this about surge potential. It already is pretty substantial if you go by this scale. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind. Could be a huge factor with tides running 1-2' above normal in this timeframe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lets not get so caught up in the track and landfall points and forget to actually watch Irene, she looks sick right now, tons of dry air to the west, the core is ragged and poor outflow >west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Even a euro track would probably cause you to lose power. 50 mph gusts....I'd rather just whiff if it's going to be just strong enough to leave me in the dark with swampazz. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 landfall E/C LI then SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could be a huge factor with tides running 1-2' above normal in this timeframe.. The webpage cannot be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At 84 it makes landfall over Central LI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lets not get so caught up in the track and landfall points and forget to actually watch Irene, she looks sick right now, tons of dry air to the west, the core is ragged and poor outflow >west. She's got good outflow to the north and outflow slowly expanding wsw so shear may be weakening a tiny bit. It has a chance to strengthen later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 landfall E/C LI then SE CT 1944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She's got good outflow to the north and outflow slowly expanding wsw so shear may be weakening a tiny bit. It has a chance to strengthen later today and tonight. Especially now with ERC done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The webpage cannot be found I know, Still a huge factor either way with astronomically high tides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 jconsor posted this about surge potential. It already is pretty substantial if you go by this scale. http://www.aoml.noaa...irene2011/wind. Sorry, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She's got good outflow to the north and outflow slowly expanding wsw so shear may be weakening a tiny bit. It has a chance to strengthen later today and tonight. I agree, just pointing out whats going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She's got good outflow to the north and outflow slowly expanding wsw so shear may be weakening a tiny bit. It has a chance to strengthen later today and tonight. might help to start moving more parallel with the flow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know, Still a huge factor either way with astronomically high tides Timing is everything, 8 pm ish south coast areas Sun, 11pm ish your way, looks as usually happens this arrives on incoming tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ill take the Nam and run. 1 tree in my yard, neighborhood build on old gravel pit which can't flood. pretty much only think that could hurt where I live is a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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