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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Well, we'll see if Messenger's NAM rule applies to the 12z suite...hinted east. Past 36 hours who cares what it has.

Just took a quick look, some changes aloft kind of early on. Been a harbinger for about 4 main runs now, it's east and I think it's faster and both of those things if they carry to the other globals would keep it from going any futher west and probably tick it east some.

NAM is a nice track for us if you like death and destruction.

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There are subtle elements all over the place, making this difficult..even to the east in the Atlantic. All you can do is talk about it, but we've pretty much beaten down the options here. Not much more you can say except that we are still pretty far out in time and things will likely change in several departments.

Safest thing to say is it will have some impact up here on most all of us in one way shape or form, The only real question is how much of one minor or major

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Just took a quick look, some changes aloft kind of early on. Been a harbinger for about 4 main runs now, it's east and I think it's faster and both of those things if they carry to the other globals would keep it from going any futher west and probably tick it east some.

NAM is a nice track for us if you like death and destruction.

Sounds perfect!

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Just took a quick look, some changes aloft kind of early on. Been a harbinger for about 4 main runs now, it's east and I think it's faster and both of those things if they carry to the other globals would keep it from going any futher west and probably tick it east some.

NAM is a nice track for us if you like death and destruction.

Appetite For Destruction

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should probably just let the run finish...but whatever that's what we do here...LOL....

new NAM looks like it would be a c/e LI hit.

It's like all of you have said and we've all noticed beyond about 36 or so it's not that helpful...I like the change we are seeing even prior to that aloft, the trend of less interaction seems to have stopped in this one model...and we at least initially have a turn.

Let's see what happens, at least this one wasn't into Pittsburgh.

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Lets not get so caught up in the track and landfall points and forget to actually watch Irene, she looks sick right now, tons of dry air to the west, the core is ragged and poor outflow >west.

She's got good outflow to the north and outflow slowly expanding wsw so shear may be weakening a tiny bit. It has a chance to strengthen later today and tonight.

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