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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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TC will always move towards a weakness in the mid and upper levels. The euro has a weak s/w west of the storm when it gets near NC, this is acting to pull it almost nnw for a time before it goes nne. I agree with Will in that it is real hard to pull a storm nnw when you get above 35N, but that's what it's showing. I don't think this is the final track, but we'll see what it looks like 72 hrs from now. Gotta give this time, and more data will be there for the 12z and 00z suite.

My look at the 0z Euro does not show any west of north component north of 35N, but instead a consistent slightly east of north component. Check out the loop below.

I do agree that even the very slightly east of due north track the Euro shows is unlikely given how shallow and how far east the trough is. I would expect a greater eastward component given the upper pattern.

5ef769abb2f7efb6e8cba203c11619e9.gif

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My look at the 0z Euro does not show any west of north component north of 35N, but instead a consistent slightly east of north component. Check out the loop below.

I do agree that even the very slightly east of due north track the Euro shows is unlikely given how shallow and how far east the trough is. I would expect a greater eastward component given the upper pattern.

5ef769abb2f7efb6e8cba203c11619e9.gif

Not on that loop. On the 6hr prog I had, it showed a slight nnw jog.

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My look at the 0z Euro does not show any west of north component north of 35N, but instead a consistent slightly east of north component. Check out the loop below.

I do agree that even the very slightly east of due north track the Euro shows is unlikely given how shallow and how far east the trough is. I would expect a greater eastward component given the upper pattern.

5ef769abb2f7efb6e8cba203c11619e9.gif

That's what is weird to me. I mean..you show me that pattern and I'm not so sure I would ever have that west of Philly.

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Right ..folks just are not understanding that even an inland track would do tremendous tree and power line damage to all of SNE. All this despair is going to look pretty foolish in a day or so.

I violently disagree.

Floyd did this and was a total waste of time for us. Floyd didn't leave its mark on us in any way.

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so many elements in play currently and over the next 2 days that it's hard to really focus (probably shouldn't) on what the actual sensible outcome will be up here. i know everyone wants to know IMBY type stuff - i do too really - but it's so challenging. obviously some rather subtle shifts in track down the coast are going to make a world of difference for a good chunk of SNE. i know it's preaching to the choir but whatever.

seems basically moderate TS type conditions to full blown serious board-up-take-cover type deal on the table right now. sucks to not feel confident but that's reality i think. "better" than scrape or out-to-sea.

no way i'm calling all clear right now.

new NAM is a bit east of 06z down by hatteras.doesn't even fully landfall really...western eyewall sort of scrapes the banks.

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Yeah, but wasn't Floyd greatly weakened by the time it got here?

Floyd made landfall wayy down the NC coast. He was fairly strong but weakening quickly at a very far south latitude.

Hurricane_Floyd_(1999).jpg

Storms like Carol and Bob on the other hand were at peak intensity clipping VA/NC and didn't begin the amount of weakening Floyd saw at landfall, until around 41N

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so many elements in play currently and over the next 2 days that it's hard to really focus (probably shouldn't) on what the actual sensible outcome will be up here. i know everyone wants to know IMBY type stuff - i do too really - but it's so challenging. obviously some rather subtle shifts in track down the coast are going to make a world of difference for a good chunk of SNE. i know it's preaching to the choir but whatever.

seems basically moderate TS type conditions to full blown serious board-up-take-cover type deal on the table right now. sucks to not feel confident but that's reality i think. "better" than scrape or out-to-sea.

no way i'm calling all clear right now.

new NAM is a bit east of 06z down by hatteras.doesn't even fully landfall really...western eyewall sort of scrapes the banks.

Did 6z have it over OBX?

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so many elements in play currently and over the next 2 days that it's hard to really focus (probably shouldn't) on what the actual sensible outcome will be up here. i know everyone wants to know IMBY type stuff - i do too really - but it's so challenging. obviously some rather subtle shifts in track down the coast are going to make a world of difference for a good chunk of SNE. i know it's preaching to the choir but whatever.

seems basically moderate TS type conditions to full blown serious board-up-take-cover type deal on the table right now. sucks to not feel confident but that's reality i think. "better" than scrape or out-to-sea.

no way i'm calling all clear right now.

new NAM is a bit east of 06z down by hatteras.doesn't even fully landfall really...western eyewall sort of scrapes the banks.

There are subtle elements all over the place, making this difficult..even to the east in the Atlantic. All you can do is talk about it, but we've pretty much beaten down the options here. Not much more you can say except that we are still pretty far out in time and things will likely change in several departments.

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There are subtle elements all over the place, making this difficult..even to the east in the Atlantic. All you can do is talk about it, but we've pretty much beaten down the options here. Not much more you can say except that we are still pretty far out in time and things will likely change in several departments.

Yup. Chaos, personified.

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