hooralph Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Donny Baseball to the rescue West of Floyd? How did Floyd work out for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 FWIW, the NAM seems a hair NE from 6z. It actually looks slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This still has a chance of being relatively anticlimatic for much of NE if it never really intensifies and goes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This still has a chance of being relatively anticlimatic for much of NE if it never really intensifies and goes west. We also need to see how this front that is passing today behaves once it's off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This still has a chance of being relatively anticlimatic for much of NE if it never really intensifies and goes west. Even a euro track would probably cause you to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Core still looks decent, give it time... 12 hours to regroup from the ERC and 12 hours to rev up again. Cat 4 at 11 am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 TC will always move towards a weakness in the mid and upper levels. The euro has a weak s/w west of the storm when it gets near NC, this is acting to pull it almost nnw for a time before it goes nne. I agree with Will in that it is real hard to pull a storm nnw when you get above 35N, but that's what it's showing. I don't think this is the final track, but we'll see what it looks like 72 hrs from now. Gotta give this time, and more data will be there for the 12z and 00z suite. My look at the 0z Euro does not show any west of north component north of 35N, but instead a consistent slightly east of north component. Check out the loop below. I do agree that even the very slightly east of due north track the Euro shows is unlikely given how shallow and how far east the trough is. I would expect a greater eastward component given the upper pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM is def east at 42 hours.. by a good bit too.. slower and east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Even a euro track would probably cause you to lose power. Right ..folks just are not understanding that even an inland track would do tremendous tree and power line damage to all of SNE. All this despair is going to look pretty foolish in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Floyd part 2... maybe not, We could see some nice winds with a weak hurricane to a tropical storm. So long as we dont have another Earl. We wont have that this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This does feel like a winter storm now. bash a model (nam) when it does what you want all hail king nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My look at the 0z Euro does not show any west of north component north of 35N, but instead a consistent slightly east of north component. Check out the loop below. I do agree that even the very slightly east of due north track the Euro shows is unlikely given how shallow and how far east the trough is. I would expect a greater eastward component given the upper pattern. Not on that loop. On the 6hr prog I had, it showed a slight nnw jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Watch this start trending east and were hoping for a shift west by 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well, we'll see if Messenger's NAM rule applies to the 12z suite...hinted east. Past 36 hours who cares what it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My look at the 0z Euro does not show any west of north component north of 35N, but instead a consistent slightly east of north component. Check out the loop below. I do agree that even the very slightly east of due north track the Euro shows is unlikely given how shallow and how far east the trough is. I would expect a greater eastward component given the upper pattern. That's what is weird to me. I mean..you show me that pattern and I'm not so sure I would ever have that west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How big is the Euro today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Right ..folks just are not understanding that even an inland track would do tremendous tree and power line damage to all of SNE. All this despair is going to look pretty foolish in a day or so. I violently disagree. Floyd did this and was a total waste of time for us. Floyd didn't leave its mark on us in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM E of Hatteras at 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM E of Hatteras at 60h. Does not make landfall over NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I violently disagree. Floyd did this and was a total waste of time for us. Floyd didn't leave its mark on us in any way. Yeah, but wasn't Floyd greatly weakened by the time it got here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 so many elements in play currently and over the next 2 days that it's hard to really focus (probably shouldn't) on what the actual sensible outcome will be up here. i know everyone wants to know IMBY type stuff - i do too really - but it's so challenging. obviously some rather subtle shifts in track down the coast are going to make a world of difference for a good chunk of SNE. i know it's preaching to the choir but whatever. seems basically moderate TS type conditions to full blown serious board-up-take-cover type deal on the table right now. sucks to not feel confident but that's reality i think. "better" than scrape or out-to-sea. no way i'm calling all clear right now. new NAM is a bit east of 06z down by hatteras.doesn't even fully landfall really...western eyewall sort of scrapes the banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z ETA is on the west end of LI at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I violently disagree. Floyd did this and was a total waste of time for us. Floyd didn't leave its mark on us in any way. Floyd was not nearly as big or as strong as Irene will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah, but wasn't Floyd greatly weakened by the time it got here? Floyd made landfall wayy down the NC coast. He was fairly strong but weakening quickly at a very far south latitude. Storms like Carol and Bob on the other hand were at peak intensity clipping VA/NC and didn't begin the amount of weakening Floyd saw at landfall, until around 41N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 so many elements in play currently and over the next 2 days that it's hard to really focus (probably shouldn't) on what the actual sensible outcome will be up here. i know everyone wants to know IMBY type stuff - i do too really - but it's so challenging. obviously some rather subtle shifts in track down the coast are going to make a world of difference for a good chunk of SNE. i know it's preaching to the choir but whatever. seems basically moderate TS type conditions to full blown serious board-up-take-cover type deal on the table right now. sucks to not feel confident but that's reality i think. "better" than scrape or out-to-sea. no way i'm calling all clear right now. new NAM is a bit east of 06z down by hatteras.doesn't even fully landfall really...western eyewall sort of scrapes the banks. Did 6z have it over OBX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Correct me if im wrong but any track that takes Irene into LI not into NJ would be optimal for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 so many elements in play currently and over the next 2 days that it's hard to really focus (probably shouldn't) on what the actual sensible outcome will be up here. i know everyone wants to know IMBY type stuff - i do too really - but it's so challenging. obviously some rather subtle shifts in track down the coast are going to make a world of difference for a good chunk of SNE. i know it's preaching to the choir but whatever. seems basically moderate TS type conditions to full blown serious board-up-take-cover type deal on the table right now. sucks to not feel confident but that's reality i think. "better" than scrape or out-to-sea. no way i'm calling all clear right now. new NAM is a bit east of 06z down by hatteras.doesn't even fully landfall really...western eyewall sort of scrapes the banks. There are subtle elements all over the place, making this difficult..even to the east in the Atlantic. All you can do is talk about it, but we've pretty much beaten down the options here. Not much more you can say except that we are still pretty far out in time and things will likely change in several departments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did 6z have it over OBX? i think it's splitting hairs really but yeah it was a bit west. some of those early differences just look like noise but it is east of the last run some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 i think it's splitting hairs really but yeah it was a bit west. some of those early differences just look like noise but it is east of the last run some. As subtle as that is..it's very important for us up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 There are subtle elements all over the place, making this difficult..even to the east in the Atlantic. All you can do is talk about it, but we've pretty much beaten down the options here. Not much more you can say except that we are still pretty far out in time and things will likely change in several departments. Yup. Chaos, personified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.