MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I can't remember one storm that didn't trend east in the final 48hrs, including near misses. I've stated that as well with the final 48 east tick, but I suppose there will always be exceptions. It really won't take much of a easterly jog for us to be prime. only thing making me what a mid altantic storm would be to end the jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Scott...its better than seing the models trend over the BM at this point. Also, its a BIG storm area-wise. Not sure why I see all this despair this morning. weenies being weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Scott...its better than seing the models trend over the BM at this point. Also, its a BIG storm area-wise. Not sure why I see all this despair this morning. Violently agree to the point of shaking all the bottlecaps out of your pockets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Police Dept has sent out a notice to expect a storm surge here of 5-8 ft, and be prepared to evacuate the beach community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Couple of comments. Regardless of the track Irene does not look too good right now. Big storm area wise but deep convection is decreasing. Unlike other classic hurricanes there is no nice cleared out eye at all. I would have thought that Irene would be looking much better than she is at this point. I know that some hurricanes just seem to want to get their act together but this one has not in a great way. If she has not by now I just don't see this bombing out to a strong Cat 3 or low 4. That and the model west trend has reduced greatly the chance of a catastrophic New England hit. Still time for things to change but compared to even 12 hours ago things look much better for New England if you do NOT want a major hit. Sorry for the bummer post for you Hurricane weenies out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Police Dept has sent out a notice to expect a storm surge here of 5-8 ft, and be prepared to evacuate the beach community. Outdoor shower washed away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Scott...its better than seing the models trend over the BM at this point. Also, its a BIG storm area-wise. Not sure why I see all this despair this morning. Correct, Going to have your hands full with the fropa today one would think...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Scott rooting us on from Napa.. love it Thank you Scott and Arnold for easing the tension Chubbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Couple of comments. Regardless of the track Irene does not look too good right now. Big storm area wise but deep convection is decreasing. Unlike other classic hurricanes there is no nice cleared out eye at all. I would have thought that Irene would be looking much better than she is at this point. I know that some hurricanes just seem to want to get their act together but this one has not in a great way. If she has not by now I just don't see this bombing out to a strong Cat 3 or low 4. That and the model west trend has reduced greatly the chance of a catastrophic New England hit. Still time for things to change but compared to even 12 hours ago things look much better for New England if you do NOT want a major hit. Sorry for the bummer post for you Hurricane weenies out there. I don't know looks better to me in the last couple of frames.. I think if it does not get better organized today.. then for sure CAT 4 is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Scott...its better than seing the models trend over the BM at this point. Also, its a BIG storm area-wise. Not sure why I see all this despair this morning. I agree with that and think the euro is def the western limit and likely too far east. With that logic, it was interesting to see them shift west like they did a our latitude..even if it was 4 days out. I'll stick with the assumption of the east tick in the final 48-60 hrs or so. If we're wrong then oh well, but it's worked before and the logic is there. The upper air pattern is different then what we've seen which makes this an interesting little case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Outdoor shower washed away? Not with the Euro track, isolated shower, southerly breeze around 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Don S is one of the best. He knows his stuff more than many of the mets in the NYC threads Still waiting for all of that snow in March 2010, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Scott...its better than seing the models trend over the BM at this point. Also, its a BIG storm area-wise. Not sure why I see all this despair this morning. She's like an engorged tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not with the Euro track, isolated shower, southerly breeze around 15? Where are the fish you posted yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Where are the fish you posted yesterday? If the King, your model, were to verify, would you even gust past ten knots up on the cliff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the King, your model, were to verify, would you even gust past ten knots up on the cliff? If the Euro verifieed we'd all gust to or over 60mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Where are the fish you posted yesterday? In his pants, thrashing around and making him giggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the King, your model, were to verify, would you even gust past ten knots up on the cliff? You need to post a pic of a pimped out Land Rover instead of fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If Irene has not entered into intensification mode by midnight, then I call skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You need to post a pic of a pimped out Land Rover instead of fish. We all know Kevin is as steady as a rock and never waivers on his guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If Irene is not entered into intensification mode by midnight, then I call skunked. Whats going on, I was at a friends house last night, did not look at a thing, shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 East http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 East http://www.meteo.psu...2z/rsmloop.html :weenie: No matter the season or the set up, the RSM finds a way to crush us. What a weenie model that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 East http://www.meteo.psu...2z/rsmloop.html :weenie: a couple miles more we would be having a good ole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Whats going on, I was at a friends house last night, did not look at a thing, shear? ERC....sometimes these things just never fully recover fromt his and we are almost to the point where sat. images override intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is certainly not your classic looking major cane, so sw shear? Outflow is poor once again on the sw and nw flank, also looks like a bit of dry air being ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Gloria was a weakening CAT 1 and I still had no power for 4 days. They can leave its mark 100+ miles to the east when they come to our latitude. You don't have to be in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 ERC....sometimes these things just never fully recover fromt his and we are almost to the point where sat. images override intensity forecast. The thing is crawling.. with 85F water off of SE coast.. there's two more.days of intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This still has a chance of being relatively anticlimatic for much of NE if it never really intensifies and goes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 FWIW, the NAM seems a hair NE from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.