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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I can't remember one storm that didn't trend east in the final 48hrs, including near misses. I've stated that as well with the final 48 east tick, but I suppose there will always be exceptions.

It really won't take much of a easterly jog for us to be prime. only thing making me what a mid altantic storm would be to end the jersey shore.

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Couple of comments. Regardless of the track Irene does not look too good right now. Big storm area wise but deep convection is decreasing. Unlike other classic hurricanes there is no nice cleared out eye at all. I would have thought that Irene would be looking much better than she is at this point. I know that some hurricanes just seem to want to get their act together but this one has not in a great way. If she has not by now I just don't see this bombing out to a strong Cat 3 or low 4. That and the model west trend has reduced greatly the chance of a catastrophic New England hit. Still time for things to change but compared to even 12 hours ago things look much better for New England if you do NOT want a major hit. Sorry for the bummer post for you Hurricane weenies out there.

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Couple of comments. Regardless of the track Irene does not look too good right now. Big storm area wise but deep convection is decreasing. Unlike other classic hurricanes there is no nice cleared out eye at all. I would have thought that Irene would be looking much better than she is at this point. I know that some hurricanes just seem to want to get their act together but this one has not in a great way. If she has not by now I just don't see this bombing out to a strong Cat 3 or low 4. That and the model west trend has reduced greatly the chance of a catastrophic New England hit. Still time for things to change but compared to even 12 hours ago things look much better for New England if you do NOT want a major hit. Sorry for the bummer post for you Hurricane weenies out there.

I don't know looks better to me in the last couple of frames.. I think if it does not get better organized today.. then for sure CAT 4 is out.

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Scott...its better than seing the models trend over the BM at this point. Also, its a BIG storm area-wise. Not sure why I see all this despair this morning.

I agree with that and think the euro is def the western limit and likely too far east. With that logic, it was interesting to see them shift west like they did a our latitude..even if it was 4 days out. I'll stick with the assumption of the east tick in the final 48-60 hrs or so. If we're wrong then oh well, but it's worked before and the logic is there. The upper air pattern is different then what we've seen which makes this an interesting little case.

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ERC....sometimes these things just never fully recover fromt his and we are almost to the point where sat. images override intensity forecast.

The thing is crawling.. with 85F water off of SE coast.. there's two more.days of intensification

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