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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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That's exactly it, if it doesn't turn soon...

The differences in the eventual track start very early, if it continues trucking to over or near 78 it would take a snaked course for it to go over land, turn more east, come back out over the water and turn north for it to be the huge impact anticipated.

Has to start the turn pretty soon.

I kinda think it adds to the suspense of waiting for it to turn.. like I said, Better to be hoping for a trend east and not west.

Also, another hope is that the curve radius decreases in the models as well. Irene is progged to go probably NNE off of HAT, maybe things change and models will start showing more of a NE direction coming into SNE..

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If this goes right into se NC, then it will weaken the heck out of Irene. I still think it may tick east in the final 48hrs, but it's a real anomalous thing wrt ridging in the ATL and no deep trough on the OV. I never thought we would see such a shift west in the models at our latitude. We know model errors day 4-5 are pretty high at times, but I honestly didn't see that coming (meaning models go west like that). Now of course can't claim anything yet as we still have 90+ hrs to go, but I think most would agree on that. We'll see what 12z does.

Of course like I said earlier...sample size FTL.

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I kinda think it adds to the suspense of waiting for it to turn.. like I said, Better to be hoping for a trend east and not west.

Also, another hope is that the curve radius decreases in the models as well. Irene is progged to go probably NNE off of HAT, maybe things change and models will start showing more of a NE direction coming into SNE..

Very true...east more likely than west...

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Where are you thinking for LF up here now?

I don't know...I haven't followed at closely as I wanted to.

I think ern NC is in the game for sure, but hopefully not much farther west then HSE or just to their west perhaps. After that, who knows. At this point...maybe Gloria-like? Again it's real tricky.

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Waters are warm..warmest time of the entire yr. It would weaken somewhat..but not sure it would weaken as fast as others do. Plus it's a large cane..and they take longer to weaken. This is assuming it even takes the westerly path..which i don't think it ultimately does

If the storm tracks where the 12z consensus models take it we'd be lucky to have a 50 knot TS up here

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TC will always move towards a weakness in the mid and upper levels. The euro has a weak s/w west of the storm when it gets near NC, this is acting to pull it almost nnw for a time before it goes nne. I agree with Will in that it is real hard to pull a storm nnw when you get above 35N, but that's what it's showing. I don't think this is the final track, but we'll see what it looks like 72 hrs from now. Gotta give this time, and more data will be there for the 12z and 00z suite.

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Donny Baseball to the rescue

IMO, the Euro is too far to the west (expansive West Atlantic ridging may be a little too strong). The 0z and 6z GFS, 0z UKMET, and, to some extent, 6z NAM (trend) may offer somewhat better insight. One early clue might be whether the 6z GFDL shifts away from the 0z GFDL's Euro-esque track. I am increasingly concerned that Irene could make second landfall (NC Outer Banks should be first) to the west of where Belle (1976) and Floyd (1999) came ashore.

Another clue as to Irene's ultimate track could manifest itself in the timing of its turn more to the north. Were Irene to maintain its current northwest bearing through the day, that could be an indication of a farther west track (stronger subtropical ridging).

Three quick points:

1. The 6z GFDL adjusted to a track that was somewhat to the east of its 0z forecast track after around 38N-38.5N, with a more pronounced fade to the east. It did bring Irene ashore farther west in NC.

2. It remains to be seen whether the 8 am motion from 5 am (345°) is an indication of a turn more to the north.

3. The 8 am position of 25.5N 76.5W is essentially 35 miles north of the GFDL's estimated 12z position of 25.0N 76.6W.

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If the storm tracks where the 12z consensus models take it we'd be lucky to have a 50 knot TS up here

Wow, we have gone to taking a direct hit from a cat 2 hurricane to possibly getting fringe effects from a TS in 12 hrs. I do not envy being a meteorologist predicting these storms. Should be interesting to see how far west the official track is @ 11, if at all.

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TC will always move towards a weakness in the mid and upper levels. The euro has a weak s/w west of the storm when it gets near NC, this is acting to pull it almost nnw for a time before it goes nne. I agree with Will in that it is real hard to pull a storm nnw when you get above 35N, but that's what it's showing. I don't think this is the final track, but we'll see what it looks like 72 hrs from now. Gotta give this time, and more data will be there for the 12z and 00z suite.

We'll see if showing it over the NJ coastline is good 4 days out. You certainly don't want to be in the bullseye 4 days out. I'd rather it west right now.

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Seems though even with the NHC track well West the wind probs are in SNE's favor, ideally you'd figure on a C.CT landfall to maximize on the winds but given that 50 miles east of current projected track is entirely possible if not somewhat likely Irene is defiantly salvageable for everyone to get in on some good action.

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I am ok with you posting every postive thing you can find...I need an uplift to my spirits right now.

In the end I think we're all (those hoping for a big hit) going to be happy with the final track. Just track it, understand climo and how they always according to Will trend east the final 48 hrs..and SNE is sitting pretty. I think the folks west of NYC down into the mid atl..are going to be in for a big disappointment the next couple of days as it comes back east a bit

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Seems though even with the NHC track well West the wind probs are in SNE's favor, ideally you'd figure on a C.CT landfall to maximize on the winds but given that 50 miles east of current projected track is entirely possible if not somewhat likely Irene is defiantly salvageable for everyone to get in on some good action.

WInd fields to the east will be huge when it gets to our latitude.

We'll have to wait and see how the mid levels are sampled at 12z and 00z.

Any thoughts Arnold? I still feel it's good to see it west, but pretty interesting turn of events since yesterday morning, at this latitude.

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In the end I think we're all (those hoping for a big hit) going to be happy with the final track. Just track it, understand climo and how they always according to Will trend east the final 48 hrs..and SNE is sitting pretty. I think the folks west of NYC down into the mid atl..are going to be in for a big disappointment the next couple of days as it comes back east a bit

I can't remember one storm that didn't trend east in the final 48hrs, including near misses. I've stated that as well with the final 48 east tick, but I suppose there will always be exceptions.

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I can't remember one storm that didn't trend east in the final 48hrs, including near misses. I've stated that as well with the final 48 east tick, but I suppose there will always be exceptions.

Yeah, it's a blanket statement that may hold true, but I also think you need to look at the synoptic setup on each case to see if there is a match with this currently modeled one. I think we'd be hard pressed to find one with this sort of setup.

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I can't remember one storm that didn't trend east in the final 48hrs, including near misses. I've stated that as well with the final 48 east tick, but I suppose there will always be exceptions.

I would think that most hurricanes that have a similar track to Irene have probably trended east versus pounding straight into NY.

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