DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z hurricane models way west When's a good time to melt down ya think? After the 00z models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z hurricane models way west WTF is going on...When will the trend back east begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z hurricane models way west It feels A LOT better to be hoping for a track east than if this was modelled out to the BM and hoping for a track west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is that a GFS based product? No I believe thats an in house experimental product, what I take from it is the 933 at LF on HSE, the sudden left turn without a strong MW trough seems non sensical but... I would imagine as we get closer a track which skirts the coast of NJ then bends into CLI would be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This one is done for my area, not that worried about it we have higher winds in the winter storms. JMHO for now. Been going on for two days with the NAM and others nudging west and southwest with each 6-12 hour plot to some extent. Good luck to those out west and southwest. You know better than to say this with ~96 hrs until it's at our latitude especially with how unpredictable a TC tends to be (as well as the common east shift due to westerlies up here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Woops deleted my post, but I'm not that worried here any longer, started to not worry much last night. I recognize there is still a chance of an east trend JMHO, this one is going too far west to do too much wind damage here based on the latest guidance. A lot of you are in the danger zone, wish you all the best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 When's a good time to melt down ya think? After the 00z models come out? I'd say 12z tomorrow.. Any change in the turn of Irene will.impact the track greatlg though.. this will.be awesome to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm fine with watching NYC get pummeled, while watching tv and using all my other electrical appliances. From satellite, Irene seems to be shrinking in coverage. NHC believes this gets up to a Cat 4? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 No I believe thats an in house experimental product, what I take from it is the 933 at LF on HSE, the sudden left turn without a strong MW trough seems non sensical but... I would imagine as we get closer a track which skirts the coast of NJ then bends into CLI would be more likely. My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning of the trend back east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning og the trend back east Bob just posted the 12z dynamic models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Your avatar would have issues in a cat 2... lol - I suppose it wall blow off of her. . . . Might be time for the tropical storm drenched avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You know better than to say this with ~96 hrs until it's at our latitude especially with how unpredictable a TC tends to be (as well as the common east shift due to westerlies up here). I don't know man, as much as I am hoping for the east trend to happen, I am getting nervous that my area barely gets anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning of the trend back east It seems like all models are following the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You know better than to say this with ~96 hrs until it's at our latitude especially with how unpredictable a TC tends to be (as well as the common east shift due to westerlies up here). It's getting so far west it's going to have to interact with land and that's well within the accuracy window. If it ends up over eastern NC it won't be severely impacted but it would be enough that we wouldn't have a 110 or 120 coasting down as it ran over the open water towards us. JMHO. Total guesstimate on my part. I'm just not that worried about it here at this stage but will take the needed precautions like buying water, some canned goods, candles and matches etc. It doesn't change any of the initial prep, I'm just not that worried at this stage. The tick west has been going on inside of 12 hours of the models for about 24 hours now, each model run has to adjust a little west to some degree inside of 24 and overall that means it's shifting gradually west before the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Storm center over Buffalo by Sunday afternoon with 50mph max winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning of the trend back east If Irene gets to 77.5-78W or so, it'll take a helluva a turn for this thing to not spend significant time over land before reaching our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Bob just posted the 12z dynamic models. I meant the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Storm center over Buffalo by Sunday afternoon with 50mph max winds. Good call.. what about your call from.yesterday saying this was going outside the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 some of us are hoping for it. major hurricane damage not good for resale value on the house don't want to take this too far down that tangent, but interestingly after Charley, lightly damaged homes were selling at a premium for awhile in Port C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't know man, as much as I am hoping for the east trend to happen, I am getting nervous that my area barely gets anything... I'm not hoping for anything really but it went from the cape cod canal to NYC or west in 24 hrs, I think it is very easy for it to trend back to hitting LI in the next 24-72 hrs of runs. It could also trend to running up the chesapeake for that matter, cone is pretty wide still given that we're this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well so much for me thinking near CCC down to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If Irene gets to 77.5-78W or so, it'll take a helluva a turn for this thing to not spend significant time over land before reaching our latitude. That's exactly it, if it doesn't turn soon... The differences in the eventual track start very early, if it continues trucking to over or near 78 it would take a snaked course for it to go over land, turn more east, come back out over the water and turn north for it to be the huge impact anticipated. Has to start the turn pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's getting so far west it's going to have to interact with land and that's well within the accuracy window. If it ends up over eastern NC it won't be severely impacted but it would be enough that we wouldn't have a 110 or 120 coasting down as it ran over the open water towards us. JMHO. Total guesstimate on my part. I'm just not that worried about it here at this stage but will take the needed precautions like buying water, some canned goods, candles and matches etc. It doesn't change any of the initial prep, I'm just not that worried at this stage. The tick west has been going on inside of 12 hours of the models for about 24 hours now, each model run has to adjust a little west to some degree inside of 24 and overall that means it's shifting gradually west before the turn. Yeah, I think that's completely fair and reasonable and pretty similar to how I feel at this point. I was actually a little worried when Boston was forecast to be in the eastern eye-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Good call.. what about your call from.yesterday saying this was going outside the BM? lol - I didn't call anything yesterday. I hardly have the credentials to call out anything weather related amongst this group. The only call I made was on Kevin's facebook page Monday or (sunday?) saying that all we'd get was some wind and rain. Seriously, I'm just here because I enjoy the weather discussions. Anything I say is only backed by the science of myself, Cold Miser, which is about as useful as a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well so much for me thinking near CCC down to ACK. Where are you thinking for LF up here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 anyone think that the west shift is overdone similar to the east shift of yesterday morning/Tuesday latenight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well so much for me thinking near CCC down to ACK. Furthest E track I can see at this point would be eastern tip of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Plenty of times I've been under the consensus on those hurricane models right now and two frogs farting in chorus in the trees delivered stronger winds 3-4 days out. The jump west seemed to occur as models got a handle on this first trough realizing it wasn't going to pull the storm north much. The second one will be entering the same time frame where models got a hndle on it today and tonight. As Will says plenty of time at this range for change, just seems like so far that change has been to push the storm further and further west pending the new dynamics. NAM will probably be of more help than it's been slammed over in the last few days, like the Euro it has been ticking west and showing less interaction with the troughs for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.