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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Is that a GFS based product?

No I believe thats an in house experimental product, what I take from it is the 933 at LF on HSE, the sudden left turn without a strong MW trough seems non sensical but... I would imagine as we get closer a track which skirts the coast of NJ then bends into CLI would be more likely.

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This one is done for my area, not that worried about it we have higher winds in the winter storms. JMHO for now.

Been going on for two days with the NAM and others nudging west and southwest with each 6-12 hour plot to some extent.

Good luck to those out west and southwest.

You know better than to say this with ~96 hrs until it's at our latitude especially with how unpredictable a TC tends to be (as well as the common east shift due to westerlies up here).

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Woops deleted my post, but I'm not that worried here any longer, started to not worry much last night. I recognize there is still a chance of an east trend JMHO, this one is going too far west to do too much wind damage here based on the latest guidance.

A lot of you are in the danger zone, wish you all the best of luck.

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No I believe thats an in house experimental product, what I take from it is the 933 at LF on HSE, the sudden left turn without a strong MW trough seems non sensical but... I would imagine as we get closer a track which skirts the coast of NJ then bends into CLI would be more likely.

My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning of the trend back east

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My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning og the trend back east

Bob just posted the 12z dynamic models.

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You know better than to say this with ~96 hrs until it's at our latitude especially with how unpredictable a TC tends to be (as well as the common east shift due to westerlies up here).

I don't know man, as much as I am hoping for the east trend to happen, I am getting nervous that my area barely gets anything...

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My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning of the trend back east

It seems like all models are following the gfs..

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You know better than to say this with ~96 hrs until it's at our latitude especially with how unpredictable a TC tends to be (as well as the common east shift due to westerlies up here).

It's getting so far west it's going to have to interact with land and that's well within the accuracy window. If it ends up over eastern NC it won't be severely impacted but it would be enough that we wouldn't have a 110 or 120 coasting down as it ran over the open water towards us. JMHO. Total guesstimate on my part. I'm just not that worried about it here at this stage but will take the needed precautions like buying water, some canned goods, candles and matches etc.

It doesn't change any of the initial prep, I'm just not that worried at this stage. The tick west has been going on inside of 12 hours of the models for about 24 hours now, each model run has to adjust a little west to some degree inside of 24 and overall that means it's shifting gradually west before the turn.

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My thinking is we'll see the 12z dynamical models shift east even if it's subtle...The 6z GFS shifted 20-30 miles east. If that continues then I'd think it's the beginning of the trend back east

If Irene gets to 77.5-78W or so, it'll take a helluva a turn for this thing to not spend significant time over land before reaching our latitude.

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some of us are hoping for it. major hurricane damage not good for resale value on the house thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

don't want to take this too far down that tangent, but interestingly after Charley, lightly damaged homes were selling at a premium for awhile in Port C.

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I don't know man, as much as I am hoping for the east trend to happen, I am getting nervous that my area barely gets anything...

I'm not hoping for anything really but it went from the cape cod canal to NYC or west in 24 hrs, I think it is very easy for it to trend back to hitting LI in the next 24-72 hrs of runs. It could also trend to running up the chesapeake for that matter, cone is pretty wide still given that we're this far out.

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If Irene gets to 77.5-78W or so, it'll take a helluva a turn for this thing to not spend significant time over land before reaching our latitude.

That's exactly it, if it doesn't turn soon...

The differences in the eventual track start very early, if it continues trucking to over or near 78 it would take a snaked course for it to go over land, turn more east, come back out over the water and turn north for it to be the huge impact anticipated.

Has to start the turn pretty soon.

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It's getting so far west it's going to have to interact with land and that's well within the accuracy window. If it ends up over eastern NC it won't be severely impacted but it would be enough that we wouldn't have a 110 or 120 coasting down as it ran over the open water towards us. JMHO. Total guesstimate on my part. I'm just not that worried about it here at this stage but will take the needed precautions like buying water, some canned goods, candles and matches etc.

It doesn't change any of the initial prep, I'm just not that worried at this stage. The tick west has been going on inside of 12 hours of the models for about 24 hours now, each model run has to adjust a little west to some degree inside of 24 and overall that means it's shifting gradually west before the turn.

Yeah, I think that's completely fair and reasonable and pretty similar to how I feel at this point. I was actually a little worried when Boston was forecast to be in the eastern eye-wall.

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Good call.. what about your call from.yesterday saying this was going outside the BM?

lol - I didn't call anything yesterday. I hardly have the credentials to call out anything weather related amongst this group. The only call I made was on Kevin's facebook page Monday or (sunday?) saying that all we'd get was some wind and rain.

Seriously, I'm just here because I enjoy the weather discussions. Anything I say is only backed by the science of myself, Cold Miser, which is about as useful as a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

:arrowhead:

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Plenty of times I've been under the consensus on those hurricane models right now and two frogs farting in chorus in the trees delivered stronger winds 3-4 days out.

The jump west seemed to occur as models got a handle on this first trough realizing it wasn't going to pull the storm north much. The second one will be entering the same time frame where models got a hndle on it today and tonight.

As Will says plenty of time at this range for change, just seems like so far that change has been to push the storm further and further west pending the new dynamics. NAM will probably be of more help than it's been slammed over in the last few days, like the Euro it has been ticking west and showing less interaction with the troughs for two days.

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