HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 surprised to see the west trend continue. May have to start talking about enough land interaction to weaken Irene. So BM is off the table? Seriously, wht sort of chance had you given it that it could do this west track? 5%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 ugh, not gonna lie. I was hoping to wake up to a prettier picture. Instead, Irene's core structure is still a mess, and model guidance is still taking it right up along the coast, over the coolest waters, closest to land, and keeping anything really interesting further west. That's my rant for the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Please say something to calm me down lol How about "We went through this yesterday but with the opposite direction."? Ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 f*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So BM is off the table? Seriously, wht sort of chance had you given it that it could do this west track? 5%? Well I thought it could track west into SNE... I still don't think the Chesapeake Bay runner is going to be the final solution tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Insert weenie pics here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 ugh, not gonna lie. I was hoping to wake up to a prettier picture. Instead, Irene's core structure is still a mess, and model guidance is still taking it right up along the coast, over the coolest waters, closest to land, and keeping anything really interesting further west. That's my rant for the morning Part of me is wondering if this will end up following the natural baroclinic zone of the shoreline rather that the continental shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well I thought it could track west into SNE... I still don't think the Chesapeake Bay runner is going to be the final solution tho experimental from Wisc Jim Witt http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/cgi-bin/tcget.cgi?time=irene09l.20110825_00&field=MSLP%2FWind&hour=Animate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 experimental from Wisc Jim Witt http://cup.aos.wisc....nd&hour=Animate Do you know how to display forecast wind radii? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 experimental from Wisc Jim Witt http://cup.aos.wisc....nd&hour=Animate wow... it just goes "poof" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am going to stick with Will on this and say that it trends back east on the models the final 48 hours. No reason why it should be back that far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Epic tip 5 paragraph post last night.. like a Shakespeare monologue in Macbeth This one? Either way...defnintely worth a repost... A Will - quick sentiment regarding the potential sensible result here. Firstly, the 18z did accelerate the forward speed - that "could" be a beginning trend because the trough bias this year has been too weak at this type of time lead. If such a bias is exercising now, then the correction would be toward a more proficient capture, and a faster speed would result. Of course...the trade off there would be - most likely - a farther west track. Lot's of ifs, but very well could be why as we are getting closer a consensus seems to be trying to hone in on a central LI/ rough ORH type track or even a bit west of there. I personally still think 20 miles W of ORH - which as you've intimated would be bad. That said, folks we should not down play a Cat 1's affects. Let me ask you all a question (and this goes for me too!): when was the last time we experienced Cat 1 winds, sustained ..or even gusting regularly, for a 6 hour period of time? It's nothing to shake stick and will set you back. It will impose a considerable disruption to infrastructure, along with property damage and disruption to some degree of social services - depending on how severe it gets would determine how long said disruption takes to recover afterward. If this manages a Cat 2 *(remote), this will scare the hell out of a lot of people and would be life threatening. Point being, we can imagine a lot, but the in person sensible experience of that kind of power is entirely a different ordeal. We've all seen wind tunnel tests where a 6' man cannot stand up against a 75mph wind. Obviously boundary layer physics would prevent that getting down to the streets (unless we get raked by families of EFO and EF1 twisters, which can happen) in the interior, but probably would grace the canopy during heavier burst; flying debris and secondary damage is a real concern for homes, and obviously quite dangerous to those caught out of door even as far inland as Barre Falls to Nashua given the current NHC track and intensity guidance. I certainly agree that this should be weakening in earnest even prior to reaching LI, but even in the 18z GFS, we are moving from approximately the Va Cape latitude to LI in 12 hours; that's close to 22kt - almost 30mph. That's not exactly slow. Even in a better case scenario, 30mph + TS force would ring out an affect described above, and we are actually planning something IN Cat 1, with remote chance for Cat 2 - though I would be fascinated by re-analysis if that took place. Make no bones about it, this is a serious situation and should not be down played - that is not a criticism toward any particular poster/content so please don't take it that way. One last thing ... am aware this may be read as dramatic; the intent is objective however, and I don't believe I am stating anything beyond the pale of real possibility given what we seeing - it's meteorologically sound. It is important not to be caught up in the drama weeds just the same. John I think most know...but just need to be reminded while they are wishcasting...a Cat 1 storm here in SNE will do far more damage than a Cat 1 somewhere in the Gulf or SE. More trees with larger canopies. Already saturated grounds. And literally decades since a widespread storm with winds anywhere close to hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This storm's historical potential is nothing compared to the historical potential of the meltdowns on this board if it doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 24 hours ago, everybody was worried about OTS, now, we're worried about it going inland. Somewhere in the middle, the truth may lie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The expansion of the wind-field is enough WOW factor for me. I'll take this track in a heartbeat. The weenie wants an eyewall experience. As a homeowner this will be perfect. I remember a few years back on a sail out of Mattapoisett near the MMA. The office on the dock had a high water mark which was halfway up a 15 foot structure a good 10 feet above water level. 25 foot surge and a hightide from BOB. I remember Carol living in Braintree right at exit 17 the watershed completely inundated from the Amory to the MBTA station. Wanting this as a CAT2 and directly hitting up here at the right angle would be sickening. Sheared-out TC rain exit left, wind exit right. I like my possessions My eyewall experience will be reserved for a roadtrip but not IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anybody else already exhausted from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Do you know how to display forecast wind radii? Thats all he has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This storm's historical potential is nothing compared to the historical potential of the meltdowns on this board if it doesn't pan out. Next GTG? Easy drive...free drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have to say, I was a little puzzled by all the "CHILLS" posts yesterday afternoon and last night when SNE was in the crosshairs 96 hours out. Still a lot of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This storm's historical potential is nothing compared to the historical potential of the meltdowns on this board if it doesn't pan out. LOL, It definitely has that January feel in here, minus the bickering between Messenger & Phil about snowfall totals on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 surprised to see the west trend continue. May have to start talking about enough land interaction to weaken Irene. some of us are hoping for it. major hurricane damage not good for resale value on the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 LOL, It definitely has that January feel in here, minus the bickering between Messenger & Phil about snowfall totals on the cape. Your avatar would have issues in a cat 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 experimental from Wisc Jim Witt http://cup.aos.wisc....nd&hour=Animate Is that a GFS based product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those are clustered pretty tightly over Hatteras and Cape May through NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those are clustered pretty tightly over Hatteras and Cape May through NYC... Well they were clustered over us not too long ago...They will be again soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those are clustered pretty tightly over Hatteras and Cape May through NYC... Like I said earlier, those were all clustered over sne. Yesterday I actually think there is more of a spread with those.models today than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 some of us are hoping for it. major hurricane damage not good for resale value on the house Same here. I want no part of destructive weather like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. It's fun to track, and fascinating of course from the scientific aspect, but you can keep the multi-day disruptions in daily conveniences (like electricity, internet, trains/subway, for example) not to mention the expense of cleanup and damage repair. Regardless of what happens, I still have to go to work on Monday morning, and if this thing were to hit around here with its full fury that would make things difficult. I won't rain on the weenie parade however, since rooting for or against it won't help anyone's cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z hurricane models way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z hurricane models way west When's a good time to melt down ya think? After the 00z models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.