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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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ugh, not gonna lie. I was hoping to wake up to a prettier picture. Instead, Irene's core structure is still a mess, and model guidance is still taking it right up along the coast, over the coolest waters, closest to land, and keeping anything really interesting further west.

That's my :weenie: rant for the morning

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ugh, not gonna lie. I was hoping to wake up to a prettier picture. Instead, Irene's core structure is still a mess, and model guidance is still taking it right up along the coast, over the coolest waters, closest to land, and keeping anything really interesting further west.

That's my :weenie: rant for the morning

Part of me is wondering if this will end up following the natural baroclinic zone of the shoreline rather that the continental shelf.:yikes:

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Epic tip 5 paragraph post last night.. like a Shakespeare monologue in Macbeth

This one? Either way...defnintely worth a repost...

A Will - quick sentiment regarding the potential sensible result here.

Firstly, the 18z did accelerate the forward speed - that "could" be a beginning trend because the trough bias this year has been too weak at this type of time lead. If such a bias is exercising now, then the correction would be toward a more proficient capture, and a faster speed would result. Of course...the trade off there would be - most likely - a farther west track. Lot's of ifs, but very well could be why as we are getting closer a consensus seems to be trying to hone in on a central LI/ rough ORH type track or even a bit west of there. I personally still think 20 miles W of ORH - which as you've intimated would be bad.

That said, folks we should not down play a Cat 1's affects. Let me ask you all a question (and this goes for me too!): when was the last time we experienced Cat 1 winds, sustained ..or even gusting regularly, for a 6 hour period of time? It's nothing to shake stick and will set you back. It will impose a considerable disruption to infrastructure, along with property damage and disruption to some degree of social services - depending on how severe it gets would determine how long said disruption takes to recover afterward. If this manages a Cat 2 *(remote), this will scare the hell out of a lot of people and would be life threatening.

Point being, we can imagine a lot, but the in person sensible experience of that kind of power is entirely a different ordeal. We've all seen wind tunnel tests where a 6' man cannot stand up against a 75mph wind. Obviously boundary layer physics would prevent that getting down to the streets (unless we get raked by families of EFO and EF1 twisters, which can happen) in the interior, but probably would grace the canopy during heavier burst; flying debris and secondary damage is a real concern for homes, and obviously quite dangerous to those caught out of door even as far inland as Barre Falls to Nashua given the current NHC track and intensity guidance.

I certainly agree that this should be weakening in earnest even prior to reaching LI, but even in the 18z GFS, we are moving from approximately the Va Cape latitude to LI in 12 hours; that's close to 22kt - almost 30mph. That's not exactly slow. Even in a better case scenario, 30mph + TS force would ring out an affect described above, and we are actually planning something IN Cat 1, with remote chance for Cat 2 - though I would be fascinated by re-analysis if that took place.

Make no bones about it, this is a serious situation and should not be down played - that is not a criticism toward any particular poster/content so please don't take it that way. One last thing ... am aware this may be read as dramatic; the intent is objective however, and I don't believe I am stating anything beyond the pale of real possibility given what we seeing - it's meteorologically sound. It is important not to be caught up in the drama weeds just the same.

John

I think most know...but just need to be reminded while they are wishcasting...a Cat 1 storm here in SNE will do far more damage than a Cat 1 somewhere in the Gulf or SE. More trees with larger canopies. Already saturated grounds. And literally decades since a widespread storm with winds anywhere close to hurricane force.

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The expansion of the wind-field is enough WOW factor for me. I'll take this track in a heartbeat. The weenie wants an eyewall experience. As a homeowner this will be perfect.

I remember a few years back on a sail out of Mattapoisett near the MMA. The office on the dock had a high water mark which was halfway up a 15 foot structure a good 10 feet above water level. 25 foot surge and a hightide from BOB. I remember Carol living in Braintree right at exit 17 the watershed completely inundated from the Amory to the MBTA station.

Wanting this as a CAT2 and directly hitting up here at the right angle would be sickening.

Sheared-out TC rain exit left, wind exit right. I like my possessions

My eyewall experience will be reserved for a roadtrip but not IMBY.

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:axe:

Those are clustered pretty tightly over Hatteras and Cape May through NYC...

Like I said earlier, those were all clustered over sne. Yesterday

I actually think there is more of a spread with those.models today than yesterday

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some of us are hoping for it. major hurricane damage not good for resale value on the house thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

Same here. I want no part of destructive weather like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. It's fun to track, and fascinating of course from the scientific aspect, but you can keep the multi-day disruptions in daily conveniences (like electricity, internet, trains/subway, for example) not to mention the expense of cleanup and damage repair. Regardless of what happens, I still have to go to work on Monday morning, and if this thing were to hit around here with its full fury that would make things difficult. I won't rain on the weenie parade however, since rooting for or against it won't help anyone's cause.

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