Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like the 06GFS mean is E of the 06z OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like the 06GFS mean is E. Thing of beauty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Should we be confident of a turn east? Haven't a couple hurricanes in the past punched straight through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 He's a joke.. any of us could ride models like he does Funny..........Bill O'Reilly hasn't had you on the #1 rated cable news show in the country to discuss the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How have the models handled the forward speed and how will a presumeably slower storm be handled in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Interesting tidbit from the PHL discussion: INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JETNORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THEEASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELSINDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE ISWITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THISSCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELAND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 06z nogaps terrible for ENE but okay for WNE...center goes over outer NC and parallels coast ala Gloria. Unfortunately that will result in a very weak 'cane or TS by the time it landfalls on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Man 2 days in a row I wake up and big changes to the forecast any chance the westward trend is overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maxon on Ryan's station this morning has 75-100mph winds statewide in CT with a foot plus of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Man 2 days in a row I wake up and big changes to the forecast any chance the westward trend is overdone? This will shift east.. this is almost the same timeframe where Earl shifted west.. models hold today, then shift east at 00z.. Imagine what this thread will.look like if they don't though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maxon on Ryan's station this morning has 75-100mph winds statewide in CT with a foot plus of rain I don't know if you can have both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This will shift east.. this is almost the same timeframe where Earl shifted west.. models hold today, then shift east at 00z.. Imagine what this thread will.look like if they don't though.. Each storm is different, I wouldn't say cause earl did it this one will. But hopefully your right, don't think people here will take it too well if NYC/ W L.I get hurricane winds and they get a light breeze; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Each storm is different, I wouldn't say cause earl did it this one will. But hopefully your right, don't think people here will take it too well if NYC/ W L.I get hurricane winds and they get a light breeze; Umm I really don't know what ill do.. But with all storms curving.. they tend to curve faster One things for sure, tolland Walmart will be out of toasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Epic tip 5 paragraph post last night.. like a Shakespeare monologue in Macbeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 accu seems to think this current tracking yields 60 sustained w/ 100 mph gusts in Pvd. overdone im sure but stronger than yesterday by 30 mph for both sustained and gusts. Then again they did the same for earl. Catch y'all when i get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This will shift east.. this is almost the same timeframe where Earl shifted west.. models hold today, then shift east at 00z.. Imagine what this thread will.look like if they don't though.. Exactly my thoughts I didn't get too bummed out when I saw the West shift in track and the significantly lower intensity up here (due to more land interaction). If this holds serve tomorrow morning, I'd be a little concerned that our big momma storm wont be all that impressive. But I see the East trend resuming again in tomorrow runs. It seems like it always happens with these coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Major factor in intensity up here is how far went it makes the trek up the coast and how far inland it gets in NC. Goes without saying if it makes it all the way to Moorhead City Its likely not making it up here as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Major factor in intensity up here is how far went it makes the trek up the coast and how far inland it gets in NC. Goes without saying if it makes it all the way to Moorhead City Its likely not making it up here as a hurricane. What sucks is if this does hug inland, NO-ONE north of.Philly will see hurricane winds cause of the land interaction. If I were in NYC, I would want this to hit eastern LI for the heavy rain aspect of the storm.. if this hugs inland and goes over NYC, they might see TS winds? I really don't know why they were cheering for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Heavy, heavy TOR spinoffs in SNE... Any sort of PRE expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Heavy, heavy TOR spinoffs in SNE... Any sort of PRE expected? Pre work for chairs, toasters, and rope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Heavy, heavy TOR spinoffs in SNE... Any sort of PRE expected? Yup, starting Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup, starting Saturday. Do you have any Juju left?? We need it for one more storm.. When does early cycle come.out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Do you have any Juju left?? We need it for one more storm.. When does early cycle come.out? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcfstorm2.html Juju in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could just be a wobble, but perhaps the storm is starting to make the turn? 8 AM advisory has Irene moving 325@13 compared to 315@12 at 5 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What sucks is if this does hug inland, NO-ONE north of.Philly will see hurricane winds cause of the land interaction. If I were in NYC, I would want this to hit eastern LI for the heavy rain aspect of the storm.. if this hugs inland and goes over NYC, they might see TS winds? I really don't know why they were cheering for the euro Big jet steak north of the storm one she gets to the Delmarva should help maintain widespread strong TS force winds and a huge shield of rain at more northerly latitudes. Already saturated soil, another 10 inches of rain and widespread 60 mph gusts due to what looks to be a large wind field all point to a lot of trees going down and significant interruption to the power grid. That would be my primary concern unless living in a surge prone area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFDL and HWRF both went west again, GFDL now west of Moorhead.......Ridge strong enough to cause a bad NC hit and give us little. More like a Floyd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFDL and HWRF both went west again, GFDL now west of Moorhead.......Ridge strong enough to cause a bad NC hit and give us little. More like a Floyd? I'm officially nervous.. jinx of the generator talk.. always works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 surprised to see the west trend continue. May have to start talking about enough land interaction to weaken Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 surprised to see the west trend continue. May have to start talking about enough land interaction to weaken Irene. Please say something to calm me down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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