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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Interesting tidbit from the PHL discussion:

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JETNORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THEEASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELSINDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE ISWITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THISSCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELAND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

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Man 2 days in a row I wake up and big changes to the forecast any chance the westward trend is overdone?

This will shift east.. this is almost the same timeframe where Earl shifted west.. models hold today, then shift east at 00z..

Imagine what this thread will.look like if they don't though..

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This will shift east.. this is almost the same timeframe where Earl shifted west.. models hold today, then shift east at 00z..

Imagine what this thread will.look like if they don't though..

Each storm is different, I wouldn't say cause earl did it this one will. But hopefully your right, don't think people here will take it too well if NYC/ W L.I get hurricane winds and they get a light breeze;

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Each storm is different, I wouldn't say cause earl did it this one will. But hopefully your right, don't think people here will take it too well if NYC/ W L.I get hurricane winds and they get a light breeze;

Umm I really don't know what ill do.. But with all storms curving.. they tend to curve faster

One things for sure, tolland Walmart will be out of toasters

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accu seems to think this current tracking yields 60 sustained w/ 100 mph gusts in Pvd. overdone im sure but stronger than yesterday by 30 mph for both sustained and gusts. Then again they did the same for earl.

Catch y'all when i get to work.

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This will shift east.. this is almost the same timeframe where Earl shifted west.. models hold today, then shift east at 00z..

Imagine what this thread will.look like if they don't though..

Exactly my thoughts I didn't get too bummed out when I saw the West shift in track and the significantly lower intensity up here (due to more land interaction). If this holds serve tomorrow morning, I'd be a little concerned that our big momma storm wont be all that impressive. But I see the East trend resuming again in tomorrow runs. It seems like it always happens with these coastals.

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Major factor in intensity up here is how far went it makes the trek up the coast and how far inland it gets in NC. Goes without saying if it makes it all the way to Moorhead City Its likely not making it up here as a hurricane.

What sucks is if this does hug inland, NO-ONE north of.Philly will see hurricane winds cause of the land interaction. If I were in NYC, I would want this to hit eastern LI for the heavy rain aspect of the storm.. if this hugs inland and goes over NYC, they might see TS winds? I really don't know why they were cheering for the euro

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What sucks is if this does hug inland, NO-ONE north of.Philly will see hurricane winds cause of the land interaction. If I were in NYC, I would want this to hit eastern LI for the heavy rain aspect of the storm.. if this hugs inland and goes over NYC, they might see TS winds? I really don't know why they were cheering for the euro

Big jet steak north of the storm one she gets to the Delmarva should help maintain widespread strong TS force winds and a huge shield of rain at more northerly latitudes. Already saturated soil, another 10 inches of rain and widespread 60 mph gusts due to what looks to be a large wind field all point to a lot of trees going down and significant interruption to the power grid. That would be my primary concern unless living in a surge prone area.

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