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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Chills reading this

HURRICANE IRENE WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS

SOUTHERN ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL

TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN SEVERAL FORMS. IF THE 00Z MODEL

CONSENSUS HOLDS AND A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION ENDS UP ON THE

EASTERN SIDE OF THIS STORM...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS THE REGION IS

LIKELY. THIS FROM VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A LARGE/

POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH

COAST. HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z

ECMWF AND HAVE LANDFALL WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE WORST WOULD

BE SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION. WE STILL WOULD LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD

STRONG DAMAGING SOUTHERLY WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING

Are they expecting that much of a shift east?laugh.gif

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Are they expecting that much of a shift east?laugh.gif

I laugh at these type of comments because people were ready to throw this to the benchmark exactly 24 hours ago. Model hugging on a TC more than 48 hours will make people look about as dumb as Forrest Gump.

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I laugh at these type of comments because people were ready to throw this to the benchmark exactly 24 hours ago. Model hugging on a TC more than 48 hours will make people look about as dumb as Forrest Gump.

I was laughing because they said Southern England....versus Southern New England...

Southern England would be quite the shift east...

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I hope you all have minium 7000 watt generators IF irene doesn't drunk in north carolina and gets a citation for drifting to far east hell its the chase folks. The most seasoned forecasters have a little tinkle in their draws just for the potential of making history . Yeah were a sick bunch because this is a killer if it tracks right up the coast but i'm sadly been waiting for this my whole life weird this is therapy stuff no doubt see ya LOL.

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Few things as I wake up this morning. First is center is just becming visible on Miami radar. should be visible there for 12-18 hours or so. See the ERC is still ongoing. I have noticed that the pressure has continued to drop slowly even while it is ongoing. Wind field has expanded again also. ultimate strenth at landfall regardless, this storm is likely to be very disruptive to a lot of people. Bit surprised to still see the models go west. I would be surpised if there isnt another shift east at some point. Not sure I buy the idea of the storm remaining inland after the NC hit.

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I think a lot of folks in interior New England, NYC etc are going to disregard the serious destructive potential this storm has because historically it's the coast that's under the gun. People I spoke with yesterday were only vaguely aware of an inland threat from Irene even though it's all over the news.

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I hope you all have minium 7000 watt generators IF irene doesn't drunk in north carolina and gets a citation for drifting to far east hell its the chase folks. The most seasoned forecasters have a little tinkle in their draws just for the potential of making history . Yeah were a sick bunch because this is a killer if it tracks right up the coast but i'm sadly been waiting for this my whole life weird this is therapy stuff no doubt see ya LOL.

lol

Don't need 7,000 watt for the necessities. We run the well pump, fridge, hot water, and a few other things off of a 5,000 watt just fine. If your someone who has to have gadgets running during a power outage I suppose that's another story.

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I agree with Will. The modeled upper pattern has the trough too shallow and too far east for me to buy a track up the Chesapeake Bay or even hugging the NJ coast. On the other hand, given the strength of the ridging from Bermuda toward the Canadian Maritimes, I don't think a track that misses LI to the east is likely either.

At this point, very preliminarily, I would go with a landfall somewhere between Morehead City and Hatteras and a NNE track toward western or central Long Island, similar to Gloria.

Jconsor should post his thoughts.

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I agree with Will. The modeled upper pattern has the trough too shallow and too far east for me to buy a track up the Chesapeake Bay or even hugging the NJ coast. On the other hand, given the strength of the ridging from Bermuda toward the Canadian Maritimes, I don't think a track that misses LI to the east is likely either.

At this point, very preliminarily, I would go with a landfall somewhere between Morehead City and Hatteras and a NNE track toward western or central Long Island, similar to Gloria.

Thanks Justin. That really puts most of SNE in a very damaging area of the storm..and one that most mets are thinking is most likely.

What type of intensity do you think we'll see as it makes LF up here?

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So it's a MA storm now???

JB:

"Track will be from Eastern NC to Albany in Saturday-Sunday period. This will join Hazel and 1821 storm as worst hurricane in mdatlantic"

"Still bad in New england but in terms of history, the place it will be made is eastern NC through NJ and se NY, and west for 150 miles"

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I'm not optimistic on the chances of Irene strengthening much more given how large it already is and the long-duration eyewall replacement cycle that is ongoing. I would expect it to peak around 105-110 kt. I think it will likely be a cat 2 on NC landfall and a cat 1 when it makes landfall on LI and SNE. However, with such a large hurricane, storm surge in the Right Front Quadrant would likely be more significant than one would think from just looking at the winds.

The intensity estimates above are based Irene hitting only the Outer Banks of NC and not going inland over eastern NC. As others have mentioned, if it does go inland over eastern NC or points north, it will likely be only a tropical storm by the time it gets to LI/SNE.

Thanks Justin. That really puts most of SNE in a very damaging area of the storm..and one that most mets are thinking is most likely.

What type of intensity do you think we'll see as it makes LF up here?

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So it's a MA storm now???

JB:

"Track will be from Eastern NC to Albany in Saturday-Sunday period. This will join Hazel and 1821 storm as worst hurricane in mdatlantic"

"Still bad in New england but in terms of history, the place it will be made is eastern NC through NJ and se NY, and west for 150 miles"

He's a joke.. any of us could ride models like he does

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