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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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With how far west the models have gone, even if they do trend east at the end, I doubt the landfall will be any further to the east than the Nassau Suffolk border-- and probably further west than that.

I still think a Suffolk County landfall is possible. The possible east trend is not one that would be linear. If the storm gets sucked into the trough, it would travel NNW for pretty much its entire path, and if it doesn't get sucked into the trough, it would travel almost due north for a while, and then NNE, and then even NE. So what would seem like a small tick east would be one that would carry more significance (go even more east) because of the synoptic features it would subsequently run into if it goes a bit further east.

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With how far west the models have gone, even if they do trend east at the end, I doubt the landfall will be any further to the east than the Nassau Suffolk border-- and probably further west than that.

This is silly considering the trends we've seen in the last 12-24 hours and considering we still have 96 hours until landfall.

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The latest models will create a lot of hysteria this morning in the Philadelphia and Baltimore/DC metro areas.

Indeed it will. I'll be laughing at all this like I was laughing at everyone about to put this storm over ACK at 06z last night. My concern over the track error at 120 hours fell pretty much on deaf ears last night...and at 96 hours, I'm sure those same deaf ears will be hugging the models again. There's an enormous cone of uncertainty still and while tonight's runs might be correct...there is a very good chance they are not.

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Indeed it will. I'll be laughing at all this like I was laughing at everyone about to put this storm over ACK at 06z last night. My concern over the track error at 120 hours fell pretty much on deaf ears last night...and at 96 hours, I'm sure those same deaf ears will be hugging the models again. There's an enormous cone of uncertainty still and while tonight's runs might be correct...there is a very good chance they are not.

From the Euros track, what is more likely ; further west, or east in future runs?

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Indeed it will. I'll be laughing at all this like I was laughing at everyone about to put this storm over ACK at 06z last night. My concern over the track error at 120 hours fell pretty much on deaf ears last night...and at 96 hours, I'm sure those same deaf ears will be hugging the models again. There's an enormous cone of uncertainty still and while tonight's runs might be correct...there is a very good chance they are not.

You'd thing they'd have learned after Boxing Day last year, but people never do lol. Is there a chance this could go even further west?

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I'm actually worried this may go even further west before it goes east. :(

I would not be worried about that. That would be an extremely rare case with these types of systems...it might happen this time, but odds are it goes east from here.

The only fly in the ointment is if it makes landfall over SE NC...then its game over and it doesn't matter after that as it will be a rapidly weakening TS like Floyd was...but if it just brushes Cape Hattaras...I'd def favor an east track over what the Euro and GFS show.

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I would not be worried about that. That would be an extremely rare case with these types of systems...it might happen this time, but odds are it goes east from here.

The only fly in the ointment is if it makes landfall over SE NC...then its game over and it doesn't matter after that as it will be a rapidly weakening TS like Floyd was...but if it just brushes Cape Hattaras...I'd def favor an east track over what the Euro and GFS show.

Yep, I was actually just posting about this in the NYC subforum-- I've always looked at Cape Fear / Wilmington as the benchmark as far as land interactions entering the equation. As long as it just brushes the outer Cape, like Gloria did, we should be "fine."

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The improbable continues..You have just got to pinch yourself to remind yourself this is very real. Gotta love our position in this as Will's inevitable east shift that every cane in history has done is yet to come. Look like pressure is down to 950..Strengthening now..cat 4 is coming later today/tonight

Off for a run to think about this with a clear head.

How'd the Euro ensembles look?

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The improbable continues..You have just got to pinch yourself to remind yourself this is very real. Gotta love our position in this as Will's inevitable east shift that every cane in history has done is yet to come. Look like pressure is down to 950..Strengthening now..cat 4 is coming later today/tonight

Off for a run to think about this with a clear head.

How'd the Euro ensembles look?

Euro ensemble mean looked almost identical to the OP run

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Wow..man I sure hope you're right about the east shift

The Euro ensemble mean was 50-75 miles east yesterday...it doesn't mean much yet.

The shift east always happens within 48 hours...we are 96 hours out. Its not time for that yet.

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THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST SLIGHTLY

WESTWARD AS HAS THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW

HAVE IRENE CLIPPING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY

BEFORE GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE

NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY

DESTRUCTIVE WITH MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG

ITS ENTIRE TRACK. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF

IRENE.

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Chills reading this

HURRICANE IRENE WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS

SOUTHERN ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL

TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN SEVERAL FORMS. IF THE 00Z MODEL

CONSENSUS HOLDS AND A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION ENDS UP ON THE

EASTERN SIDE OF THIS STORM...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS THE REGION IS

LIKELY. THIS FROM VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A LARGE/

POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH

COAST. HOWEVER...IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z

ECMWF AND HAVE LANDFALL WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE WORST WOULD

BE SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION. WE STILL WOULD LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD

STRONG DAMAGING SOUTHERLY WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING

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000URNT12 KNHC 250918VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 25/08:50:00ZB. 24 deg 45 min N 076 deg 09 min WC. 700 mb 2670 mD. 71 ktE. 144 deg 32 nmF. 234 deg 89 ktG. 144 deg 32 nmH. 950 mbI. 11 C / 3039 mJ. 16 C / 3048 mK. 13 C / NAL. OPEN SWM. C30N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF300 1909A IRENE OB 07MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 08:58:00ZMAX FL TEMP 17 C 157 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTRMAX FLT LEVEL TEMP OUTBOUND 18C 320/6 FROM FL CNTRMAX WNDS IN OUTER BAND APPROX 45NM DIAMETER;

Getting closer to be completed. Recon has C16/64 in the vortex last night.

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I see some folks in the mid atl are all over the Euro lol

There's going to be an obscene amount of wish-casting the next 2 days. People just do not understand the poor handling of TCs with NWP guidance....as soon as they see a huge hit, they latch on...remember last night at 6z? Everyone wants to concede this was going east. It pretty funny to watch.

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There's going to be an obscene amount of wish-casting the next 2 days. People just do not understand the poor handling of TCs with NWP guidance....as soon as they see a huge hit, they latch on...remember last night at 6z? Everyone wants to concede this was going east. It pretty funny to watch.

I just can't believe we've seen this west trend continue. It's pretty surreal when you sit back and think about it.

Are you still leaning towards SE Mass hit do you think?

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