40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone have thoughts on the speed of this ERC...? Would be a shame to waste the 30C SSTs, and we're progged to reach 115kts within next 24 hours... I think we're good to go in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wiz wins even if you miss this. He has posted like twice about this but will post 100 times about an ULL dropping pea sized hail in Springfield. Well I know very little about tropical activity and really not sure that I can add anything except my personal thoughts which are usually wrong anyways. I only post alot in the severe threads b/c I'm like one of the only ones who care enough to post about it. If everyone posted as much as they did in the severe threads like they did in the winter or tropical threads I probably wouldn't post as much as I do in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I guess at least I'm on vacation..lol. Yeah wiz was hanging scoreboard numbers like 25 miles of the TOR when it happened, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I guess at least I'm on vacation..lol. extra extra bottles of wine???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Second earthquake in Virginia....4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lol, GGEM is between ACK and CHH it looks like. I feel great about this....just how I'd want the envelope of soloutions distributed at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah wiz was hanging scoreboard numbers like 25 miles of the TOR when it happened, lol. I was doing the scorebook...and completely pissed off we were in a delay which lasted about an hour b/c there was one stupid rumble of thunder and ump said he saw lightning...he was full of it...I was playing close attention to the sky and saw not one flash. If it wasn't for that delay the game could have been over around 5 and I could have made it to Springfield by 5:45...although maybe not with traffic, there was another cell right around 6 which produced a tornado too which we were actually in the process of chasing but were just a little too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I was doing the scorebook...and completely pissed off we were in a delay which lasted about an hour b/c there was one stupid rumble of thunder and ump said he saw lightning...he was full of it...I was playing close attention to the sky and saw not one flash. If it wasn't for that delay the game could have been over around 5 and I could have made it to Springfield by 5:45...although maybe not with traffic, there was another cell right around 6 which produced a tornado too which we were actually in the process of chasing but were just a little too far behind. You should have told them you were too busy to hang numbers and sell hotdogs at the concession stand that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ideally I'd prefer the Euro to be over Bridgeport or New Haven at this point I think. Plenty of room to trend east and still provide a chasable storm and/or big effects at home. But also not so far west that we'd risk a NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You should have told them you were too busy to hang numbers and sell hotdogs at the concession stand that day. I still can't believe we actually won our first round game the day before. First time since 2002 they win a first round game. We were losing 8-2 as well going into the 4th inning then made a huge comeback, blew it in the bottom of the 7th then won it in the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think we're good to go in about 12 hours. I'd agree. Jump to Cat 4 will be abrupt once the cycle completes... hopefully that begins sometime early Thursday. From Wikipedia: Once the inner eyewall dissipates, the storm weakens; the central pressure increases and the maximum sustained windspeed decreases. Usually the new eyewall will contract and intensify the storm such that it is stronger than before the start of the eyewall replacement cycle. Rapid changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones is a typical characteristic of eyewall replacement cycles.[25] Compared to the processes involved with the formation of the secondary eyewall, the death of the inner eyewall is fairly well understood. (wikipedia) Also incidentally interesting: The discovery of this process was partially responsible for the end of the U.S. government's hurricane modification experiment Project Stormfury. This project set out to seed clouds outside the eyewall, causing a new eyewall to form and weakening the storm. When it was discovered that this was a natural process due to hurricane dynamics, the project was quickly abandoned.[1] (wikipedia) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 extra extra bottles of wine???? Numerous. Actually, I had a weenie moment with some wine makers about climate. Nina's suck for these guys. Alright, not to derail..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Perfect time for this ERC imo....may not make cat 4 as first thought, but should end up a pretty good cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Numerous. Actually, I had a weenie moment with some wine makers about climate. Nina's suck for these guys. Alright, not to derail..... Did you see snow pack flying over the Sierras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Numerous. Actually, I had a weenie moment with some wine makers about climate. Nina's suck for these guys. Alright, not to derail..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did you see snow pack flying over the Sierras? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did you see snow pack flying over the Sierras? Yes a few areas. Defintely a nice weenie snowpack over the high Sierra. The problem was that I didn't have a good vantage point as to where I was, but guessed the nrn Sierra based on flight track. It defintely was more relegated to the highest peaks, but very visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Perfect time for this ERC imo....may not make cat 4 as first thought, but should end up a pretty good cat 3. Yeah was wondering the same re: timing... get the ERC out of the way now and have a solid 12-24 hours of uninterrupted strengthening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yes a few areas. Defintely a nice weenie snowpack over the high Sierra. The problem was that I didn't have a good vantage point as to where I was, but guessed the nrn Sierra based on flight track. It defintely was more relegated to the highest peaks, but very visible. I have pics from July 2008 of my dad and I having a snowball fight at the visitor's center of Mt. Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah was wondering the same re: timing... get the ERC out of the way now and have a solid 12-24 hours of uninterrupted strengthening... Had this taken place at the lat of the carolinas...that is it...game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have pics from July 2008 of my dad and I having a snowball fight at the visitor's center of Mt. Rainer. See? Nina's FTW. I bet if I flew over Washington State, it would look like the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 See? Nina's FTW. I bet if I flew over Washington State, it would look like the North Pole. Not out of the ordinary there, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I much rather stare out of the window on an airplane, than listen to music. I love the perspective you have from 34,000ft. The change of scenery from the high plains to the Rockies is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Perfect time for this ERC imo....may not make cat 4 as first thought, but should end up a pretty good cat 3. Earlier the better. Just hope this was early enough. Tomorrow looks like the prime day for intensification, with the highest OHC, low shear, and good upper level divergence. Hopefully Irene can get its act together by early afternoon to capitalize on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I much rather stare out of the window on an airplane, than listen to music. I love the perspective you have from 34,000ft. The change of scenery from the high plains to the Rockies is crazy. Totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yes a few areas. Defintely a nice weenie snowpack over the high Sierra. The problem was that I didn't have a good vantage point as to where I was, but guessed the nrn Sierra based on flight track. It defintely was more relegated to the highest peaks, but very visible. How many days of the vacation are you backcountry skiing? Good snow in N Ca. still. I have a good friend in Mt.Shasta that could set you and the wife up with AT rigs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Almost EURO time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 2 AM update has maximum winds down to 115 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How many days of the vacation are you backcountry skiing? Good snow in N Ca. still. I have a good friend in Mt.Shasta that could set you and the wife up with AT rigs.. Hope to see some snow at Yosemite, but not sure if I can get high enough. Anyways, don't want to piss Will and company off with the OT. However, you better prepare for a sh*tload of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow me waiting up for the euro happens once or twice per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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