ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Using the models on wunderground. Is that wind scale in mph or knots? It doesn't say...but most models do wind in knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow at the GFS. 4 days out is not bad over NYC. You don't want it over BOS 4 days out. The risk of a complete whiff to the east is definitely decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If you want the storm to pass near you...you want it west right now. I hope you're right (for the sake of fireworks in Eastern Mass)... But interested why you feel certain about this: Is it because models historically underestimate eastern steering of tropical cyclones this far out and before the storm accelerates northward... OR Is it because you're noticing a specific synoptic feature that the models have not yet caught on to this far out (e.g. the depth of the second trough)... Thanks! (and PS --- so great to be back here in August... the epic stretch of winter storms and snowpack, a tornado, an earthquake, a hurricane... truly a weenie heaven this year ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The risk of a complete whiff to the east is definitely decreasing. Yeah no doubt...throw this into the fact that small sample size doesn't mean you need a huge ULL in the OV. I might go to my grave with this, but I can't help but think it ticks east in the final 48hrs. I'm just not so sure of NYC landfall, and this is not a biased statement because I'm from BOS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It doesn't say...but most models do wind in knots. That's what I'm assuming. 0z GFS not too shabby here...about 30-40 mph...I'm assuming sustained. Could be totally insane across eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It doesn't say...but most models do wind in knots. It's knots. Note the dotted line under the "Map Type" wording... hover over it for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'd much rather it there than over ACK....don't get me wrong. I'm nitpicking. 10" of rain for me it appears. With decent winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I hope you're right (for the sake of fireworks in Eastern Mass)... But interested why you feel certain about this: Is it because models historically underestimate eastern steering of tropical cyclones this far out and before the storm accelerates northward... OR Is it because you're noticing a specific synoptic feature that the models have not yet caught on to this far out (e.g. the depth of the second trough)... Thanks! (and PS --- so great to be back here in August... the epic stretch of winter storms and snowpack, a tornado, an earthquake, a hurricane... truly a weenie heaven this year ) Models seem to always over estimate the phasing with a trough and under forecast the westerlies with TCs on the east coast. Its why almost every single storm trends east in the final couple days. We cannot be certain this one will, but as I told Ray, I know where my money would be placed. Also, we cannot get to obsessed with just a couple runs 4 days out. We were ready to send this to ACK at 06z last night only to have it come west again...we have an eternity to go when talking about the world of Tropical Cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's knots. Note the dotted line under the "Map Type" wording... hover over it for details. Thanks. That was actually an idiotic question by me but when I get confused or am not sure I tend to do stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just a crazy period coming up; potential for strong to severe storms tomorrow (mainly western sections) then the potential 'cane! Someone had mentioned to me too that past hurricanes (or tropical systems) have been preceded by severe wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow at the GFS. 4 days out is not bad over NYC. You don't want it over BOS 4 days out. MTA is already talking about shutting down the subways well in advance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Going west! Storm cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Going west! Storm cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like ensembles go over HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lol, GGEM is between ACK and CHH it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Lol, GGEM is between ACK and CHH it looks like. Good agreement. I have trouble with the NYC track, but we'll see. I'm thinking further east for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If I were to look at the 00z runs without Irene at 500mb I would laugh if someone told me it was a favorable SNE hurricane pattern. Small sample size FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Good agreement. I have trouble with the NYC track, but we'll see. I'm thinking further east for sure. lol. Whats weird is the trend was opposite of the GFS...not just talking about the position. The 12z GGEM brought the storm up Ray's fanny. This is a solid 40-50 miles E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone have thoughts on the speed of this ERC...? Would be a shame to waste the 30C SSTs, and we're progged to reach 115kts within next 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If I were to look at the 00z runs without Irene at 500mb I would laugh if someone told me it was a favorable SNE hurricane pattern. Small sample size FTW? +1 No kidding man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If I were to look at the 00z runs without Irene at 500mb I would laugh if someone told me it was a favorable SNE hurricane pattern. Small sample size FTW? I would laugh too, but that ridge is like Vince Wilfork...lol. I dunno...I think seeing models put it near NYC is a lot better then having it over UUU right now. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I doubt NYC, although I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up at HVN or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It seems to me that the storm is substantially south of the NHC track. I don't know what effect that will have on the final landfall location, but almost assuredly will make for a later landfall time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If I were to look at the 00z runs without Irene at 500mb I would laugh if someone told me it was a favorable SNE hurricane pattern. Small sample size FTW? That is something that's making me feel real uneasy about saying we're pretty likely to see significant impacts (major wind damage mainly) but hell...prior to last winter everyone said we can't get a KU in a Nina Still though as has been mentioned (by Will at least) for this storm to really go that far to the east or miss us would be a major bust by the models considering the excellent agreement that is in place and the consistency as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I would laugh too, but that ridge is like Vince Wilfork...lol. I dunno...I think seeing models put it near NYC is a lot better then having it over UUU right now. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I doubt NYC, although I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up at HVN or something. great analogy and yes I agree. I'm thinking that a SNE landfall is likely. Probably west of the CCC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maybe you guys can put me in the SNE wall of shame if I miss this, along side with Wiz missing 6/1 by 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It seems to me that the storm is substantially south of the NHC track. I don't know what effect that will have on the final landfall location, but almost assuredly will make for a later landfall time. Even with a GON landfall... the 9:30-11 p.m. astro high tide cycle in the Sound would be the worst since 1938 if the timing and strength (strong cat 1) worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 MTA is already talking about shutting down the subways well in advance lol. There's no way the subways could function if the 0z GFS were to verify; 9-10" rain plus the storm surge up the Hudson River would be devastating for Manhattan. The MTA frequently uses pumps to remove water from the underground, but I'd assume the GFS would flood quite a few of Manhattan's streets and basements, not just the obviously vulnerable subway system. I have trouble with the NYC track, but we'll see. I'm thinking further east for sure. The problem is that we don't have a typical Northeast hurricane scenario in which the TC's path is determined mostly by the westerlies. It seems that in most cases, the westerlies either force the storm out to sea (Earl) or a negatively tilted trough slings the hurricane back towards the East Coast as was the case with Hurricane Hazel in October 1954, which did a massive amount of damage to the Carolinas and even affected places as far as Toronto. In this case, however, the storm seems to miss most of the interactions with pieces of energy to the north; we have a strong northern stream impulse tomorrow/early Friday, but that's when Irene is still at the same latitude as Florida. It manages to move up the coast at the same time the Atlantic ridge is reasserting itself, and before the next northern stream shortwave arrives. Thus, Irene may be doing more meandering on its own as opposed to the typical recurve vs. sling interaction with the westerlies to which we've become accustomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maybe you guys can put me in the SNE wall of shame if I miss this, along side with Wiz missing 6/1 by 20 miles. We can sulk together at the g2g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maybe you guys can put me in the SNE wall of shame if I miss this, along side with Wiz missing 6/1 by 20 miles. Wiz wins even if you miss this. He has posted like twice about this but will post 100 times about an ULL dropping pea sized hail in Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wiz wins even if you miss this. He has posted like twice about this but will post 100 times about an ULL dropping pea sized hail in Springfield. I guess at least I'm on vacation..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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