CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 031930 2804N 07722W 6964 02632 9381 +175 +149 360006 010 022 001 03 this one looks better, light winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I doubt it comes in at 8 am or pm.....prob catch a break as it comes in around midday. Link? I have asked for a time of start of TS and time of wind switch, big issue is how long and what time, it's forward speed is the next biggest unknown. NAm is crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 can't wait until the time changes again. these late model runs blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:30 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS will be interesting. And thar she blows. This is like all of us snapping into mid winter form.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:27 AM, OSUmetstud said: yeah I think the highest I've seen on SHIPS is 108 kt. It actually does diagnose significant shear, 23 kt at 48 hours and 30 kt at 60 hours; however, since the shear direction and the storm motion are the same it sees the shear direction as favorable for intensification and only slight amount of issue with the magnitude...big negative factors in the algorithm are 200/250mb temp (lower tropopause) and SST. Thanks. I could see this as 80 knots near the south coast. That would be a pretty solid storm....and I guess we can't completely rule out an 85 knot low end cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:30 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS will be interesting. Waiting up for that then going to bed. Slept for 3 hours last night. Going to work tomorrow from about 10-8 since I didn't go in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 it's cool to see the thunderstorms training to the north as the trough pulls out...it feels like the westerlies are gone and the winds are about to change direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 107 kts se quad at flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 When is GFS coming out? Mid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm going to personally observe 60 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Starting to breathe a little easier tonight, subtle shifts east, hopefully the gfs and euro shift east again. Looks like this tracks east of us now, minimizing the surge potential in wester li sound. Good luck to everyone further east, may your cane dreams come true:) Looking forward to some good winds, which I have no issue with, my only concern is and was li sound flowing through my basement and first floor, which looks unlikely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:34 AM, CoastalWx said: 107 kts se quad at flight level. that's pretty good for the SE quad. It's definitely starting to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:35 AM, patsrule417 said: When is GFS coming out? Mid? Out to 9 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This one will hurt, but hope everyone experiences one of the few events we ever get to be part of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is really impressive on IR right now and the last few frames she is def moving due N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:36 AM, litchfieldlibations said: Starting to breathe a little easier tonight, subtle shifts east, hopefully the gfs and euro shift east again. Looks like this tracks east of us now, minimizing the surge potential in wester li sound. Good luck to everyone further east, may your cane dreams come true:) Looking forward to some good winds, which I have no issue with, my only concern is and was li sound flowing through my basement and first floor, which looks unlikely now. The surge could still be pretty bad for you I believe...not to be a jerk or anything...just sayin you aren't in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:36 AM, OSUmetstud said: that's pretty good for the SE quad. It's definitely starting to strengthen. Dude, you brought the mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:36 AM, CoastalWx said: This one will hurt, but hope everyone experiences one of the few events we ever get to be part of. I feel your pain. Your wife will repay you with some sugar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Beautiful view this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I expect the GFS to be at least as far east as the NAM. But the Euro is the one I'd be interested in.... Out to 9 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:38 AM, weathafella said: I feel your pain. Your wife will repay you with some sugar.. Jerry download Hurricane HD for your pad, friggin awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:37 AM, SnowMan said: The surge could still be pretty bad for you I believe...not to be a jerk or anything...just sayin you aren't in the clear. LI sound is definitely still under the gun for big surge...even if it tracks over LI rather than NYC. Prolonged ENE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I haven't seen a ton mentioned regarding tornado potential. Are we thinking that there may be tornadoes in the East/Northeast quadrants of Irene into Central New England if the current track were to hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm a picky, IR snob, but this is starting to look good.....almost where I want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Here we go - JB tweets: xBigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale ( incorporates pressure to give more realistic view of storms total power, rather than 1 minute wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:26 AM, weatherwiz said: This is a great read from storm2k...a reply to a post He's one of the Hurricane Hunter Pilots. Air Force Met: These kind of demonstrative fact-based post ahead of anything verified sounds too much like me - lol. Seriously, what is meant by the NC coast? That's a bit unclear to me... A significant part of that geography does not require an eye passing over enough land to impose substantial enough weakening. Just curious. A skim along the NC coast is a land fall but let's get real. Also, does the fact that this is already moving N ahead of schedule factor into those declarations?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 13/18 temp differential between inside and outside eyewall isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm a picky, IR snob, but this is starting to look good.....almost where I want it. told yah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:40 AM, patsrule417 said: I haven't seen a ton mentioned regarding tornado potential. Are we thinking that there may be tornadoes in the East/Northeast quadrants of Irene into Central New England if the current track were to hold? They'll probably be brief spin ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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