OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't imagine it's higher than about 940, though. idk...the dropsonde only measured a 6 kt wind. I've been watching the recon for a few years now and I noticed that the extrap on the NOAA plane runs consistently a few mbs too low. The USAF seems to be closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Can't believe I've had SOOOO little time to follow this. With my family in NY the last two days, heading to Baltimore tomorrow, returning late Saturday/Saturday night. I'm pulling for a good CT landfall so most folks can enjoy some great winds--and I can satisfy my qpf needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This. It has a pants rising feel to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:36 AM, Phil882 said: The eyewall on radar continues to become better defined... I'd say its a better indicator of organization than enhanced IR at this point, although the IR presentation continues to improve as well. The problem is we have FL winds of 90-95 knots nearly 100 miles away from the circulation center. What the storm has been doing is broadening its entire wind field rather than intensifying the winds closer to the core. However, there is some evidence that is changing, because the latest NOAA plane measured 100 knot winds very close to the center in the last pass (10 or so miles away)... 2-3 hours ago the 100 knot winds were located a good 40 miles form the center. The core is redeveloping per this data. this from Phil who I think is a good tropical met/poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM still shows 35-40 knots sustained for much of CT on wundermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:49 AM, moneypitmike said: Can't believe I've had SOOOO little time to follow this. With my family in NY the last two days, heading to Baltimore tomorrow, returning late Saturday/Saturday night. I'm pulling for a good CT landfall so most folks can enjoy some great winds--and I can satisfy my qpf needs. Hopefully in a car... will planes still be flying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:43 AM, OSUmetstud said: 937.2mb was an extrapolation from 750mb...doesn't always work out to be perfect. Dropsonde is the most accurate. Oh I see -yeah I didn't catch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:49 AM, OSUmetstud said: idk...the dropsonde only measured a 6 kt wind. I've been watching the recon for a few years now and I noticed that the extrap on the NOAA plane runs consistently a few mbs too low. The USAF seems to be closer. I'll defer to you on that, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's moving due north or a tick east of due north now. It won't reach as far west as the 5 PM track showed. On 8/26/2011 at 2:49 AM, Dryslot said: It has a pants rising feel to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:55 AM, Logan11 said: It's moving due north or a tick east of due north now. It won't reach as far west as the 5 PM track showed. Good, the 5PM track had this over HSE and Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:44 AM, ORH_wxman said: NAM is basically Westerly, RI to BOS...flooding issues for interior but worst wind would be confined to the south coast of MA and the Cape in that track. greatly reduces the impact for NYC on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm really curious to see the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:55 AM, Logan11 said: It's moving due north or a tick east of due north now. It won't reach as far west as the 5 PM track showed. The radar loop they just showed on TWC was actually quite impressive on an Easterly movement. Quite a large wobble! I can't seem to find a radar online that shows the area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Right up Kevs fanny FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 42.0N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 140SW 120NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Winds kept at 115 mph with 11 PM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 JB's twitter account is silent. must be trying to figure out how he can just a track through NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wow... the NHC really didn't shift it east at all. Kinda surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:46 AM, weathafella said: Exactly what I feared would happen in your case. I didn't think they'd want planes stuck in Boston. Yeah. All flights full to Boston tomorrow and all area airports. If Saturday night is cancelled, good chance we'll be home later Monday, at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:51 AM, HubbDave said: Hopefully in a car... will planes still be flying? Yup, driving. I wonder if I'll see Jay at Towson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:55 AM, Logan11 said: It's moving due north or a tick east of due north now. It won't reach as far west as the 5 PM track showed. And thats a good thing up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any idea why, with the NAM around 10:45, the GFS around midnight, and the Euro after 1:00 that the NHC does it's advisories at the 11/5 cycle rather than the 2/8 cycle? News maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:58 AM, BrianLaverty said: Wow... the NHC really didn't shift it east at all. Kinda surprised. They don't really have a big reason to at this point, but they will once more models start trending east. They did this last year during Earl as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:58 AM, BrianLaverty said: Wow... the NHC really didn't shift it east at all. Kinda surprised. Im not that surprised. Trend wasn't significant enough to justify a notable shift (save the NAM). If the E trend continues and Euro follows suit, they will push it E next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:00 AM, Bruinsyear said: Im not that surprised. Trend wasn't significant enough to justify a notable shift (save the NAM). If the trend continues with the trend and Euro follows suit, they will push it E next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:44 AM, ORH_wxman said: NAM is basically Westerly, RI to BOS...flooding issues for interior but worst wind would be confined to the south coast of MA and the Cape in that track. This is true in the lower levels, but interestingly the 500mb sfc is stacked slightly W of that track - hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well I meant ...wont get as far west in the short term. Even the 11 PM track shows a bit more longitude gained and I don't see it. Extrapolating that further up the coast..who knows. It means NC land won't have much effect on it. On 8/26/2011 at 2:56 AM, DomNH said: Good, the 5PM track had this over HSE and Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: They don't really have a big reason to at this point, but they will once more models start trending east. They did this last year during Earl as well. I am hoping mid point between Euro and NAM. I dont want to see the Euro jump all the way to the NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 2:57 AM, ORH_wxman said: I'm really curious to see the Euro tonight. my guess it will be up near ALB -haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Look up Carol. This is she 57 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On 8/26/2011 at 3:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: They don't really have a big reason to at this point, but they will once more models start trending east. They did this last year during Earl as well. I really don't think CNE could be in a better spot right now. Shift east, heavy rain, shift west, heavy wind. This is freakin awesome. Tick east AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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