lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 Beautiful Weather in OP today for the bills game who are gonna whoop the jets. 55 to 60 degrees there today but yet whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Beautiful Weather in OP today for the bills game who are gonna whoop the jets. 55 to 60 degrees there today but yet whiteout conditions. I agree beautiful in Toronto as well . Amazing Fall colours up my way too. Looks like they've finally peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 While the NAO looks to cooperate in the extended range by going somewhat negative...the Pacific is looking incredibly hostile with a very strong -PNA being forecasted by the gfs, ec, and ec ensembles through the period. We are going to need that to change in order to get significant cold to sustain in the midwest and east. Every year I get horrible memories of the Fall of 2001 when almospt every weather outlet/met was calling for sustained cold which never came. If we get temps in the mid to upper 60s around the 20th, look out. It's generally a sign that the cold is having ah ard timem aking it in to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 18.0F right now. It looks like that will be the bottom. First teens of the season. Yep, I got down to 18.6° here this weekend. It was a bit cool cutting wood Sunday morning @ ~20° but it warmed up nicely later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Beautiful Weather in OP today for the bills game who are gonna whoop the jets. 55 to 60 degrees there today but yet whiteout conditions. Unfortuntely it was the other way around...ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 In the lakes forum, some are saying that the flip to colder could come around the 20th, which would be in keeping with the traditional La Nina theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 In the lakes forum, some are saying that the flip to colder could come around the 20th, which would be in keeping with the traditional La Nina theme. lets hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Winter will arrive to stay by Thanksgiving. Fun, stormy times ahead for December............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 In the lakes forum, some are saying that the flip to colder could come around the 20th, which would be in keeping with the traditional La Nina theme. i don't see it, maybe a bit after that... but even that is not seen at this time. but things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 i don't see it, maybe a bit after that... but even that is not seen at this time. but things can change. I don't see it either.models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 i don't see it, maybe a bit after that... but even that is not seen at this time. but things can change. I agree. 6z GFs showed a continual torch for November. It should be noted that warm Novembers are generally not a good sign for winter in our area. Think November 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 In the lakes forum, some are saying that the flip to colder could come around the 20th, which would be in keeping with the traditional La Nina theme. For the upper lakes this could be the case, but I am not seeing any flip for this region until the week after Thanksgiving. The NAO looks to go negative by mid-month, but it will take it some time to slow down the Pacific fire hose. I would say that places like Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan would be the jackpot zones for snow in the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Warmer Novembers for us by the lakes equate to warmer lake waters which mean when the real cold arrives in December/January we get HUGE Lake Effect Storms. I love having warm Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 Warmer Novembers for us by the lakes equate to warmer lake waters which mean when the real cold arrives in December/January we get HUGE Lake Effect Storms. I love having warm Novembers. me too my lake Erie brethren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Hey folks! If you have a Facebook account checkout Tornado Girl's page there. It's excellent with a lot of diverse weather posts, thoughts, info, etc. If you are on FB LIKE her page: Rebecca's Northeast weather and education page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 What a hell of a lake effect band off Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Numero uno! NYZ019-020-110500- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0014.111111T0500Z-111111T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 347 PM EST THU NOV 10 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES... * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND UP TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL IMPACT DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. Haven't had anything much in November since 2008 when we got 45" in the course of two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Numero uno! Haven't had anything much in November since 2008 when we got 45" in the course of two weeks. its just starting to slowly get its act together and hopefully by 2 or 3 am it can be a nice band but it seems shear might limit how well this band organizes. If it doesn't organize i would bet 1-3 inches is more likley but if it can get its act together and remain fairly steady I could see some of the highest elevations (above 1800ft) picking up 6 inches by 8 am. And how I wish we could have another 2008-2009 winter season . I know some areas near Ellicottville had almost 100" by Christmas. Just awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Wanting 2-3 weeks of 50s and 60s and sunny then bring on winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Foregot to add its a virtual whiteout with the grass already covered at Dunkirk near the thruway which is only at 640 ft. Its.gotta be really nasty up on the Chautauqua ridge tonight and only gonna get worse. I'm gonna say the winner will be either mayville or forestville tonight with 5 1/2" by 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Wanting 2-3 weeks of 50s and 60s and sunny then bring on winter!!! I want a 2001-2002 winter. Warm weather and almost no snow untill the last week in December where we then got 82.6 inches at the airport in 1 week. Now that's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 i don't see it, maybe a bit after that... but even that is not seen at this time. but things can change. Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think that a winter like 1974-75 is a distinct possibility. That winter wasa second year La Nina, as is this one. November 1974 saw a superstorm in November, just like this November has. The previous winter (1973-74) had some similarities to last winter, while the summer of 1973 was hot, much like the summer of 2010 in this region. On the bright side, that dud of a winter (74-75) was followed by four good winters in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Quick burst before I left for work. The ground is now white for the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 2.0" overnight and still snowing. I suspect Sherman got a good amount last night. Unfortunately there is no COOP or snowspotter there anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I have land in Sherman, NY at 1560 Feet...but haven't started on my cabin yet. When I get it built I will have a web cam or two for you all to access, not to mention a great place to LE chase off Erie if anyone is interested when it gets done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are showing a mild first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 For those living in Long Point Ontario can all you please move to Nanticoke?? That sand spit peninsula really screws up our Lake Effect as the peninsula forces the bands to form on either side of it and one WNW winds we get screwed . I wish the Canadian government would dredge that entire thing out of Lake Erie. Lol of course I'm only picking but the weather in me wishes it wan't lol. Does anybody else notice the affect that peninsula causes on Lake Effect bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Anyone south of the line, Canada has urged you to move to the closest major city . I wonder if there is any kind of case study on the affect this area has on LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 2.0" overnight and still snowing. I suspect Sherman got a good amount last night. Unfortunately there is no COOP or snowspotter there anymore. I'v been through Sherman a ton of times and it definitely is the sweet spot. I know there are better locations for lake effect amounts but they get their fair share. How much did you guys end up getting. I'm pretty far from the lake but I managed to pick up 1.6" overnight. We normally get fringed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 I have land in Sherman, NY at 1560 Feet...but haven't started on my cabin yet. When I get it built I will have a web cam or two for you all to access, not to mention a great place to LE chase off Erie if anyone is interested when it gets done. can't wait till it gets done. Ill be there all the time LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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