Tornado Girl Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Definitely looking like next week could be interesting for someone. The models are on to something that's for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 The models are on to something that's for sure.... I have not even finished final cut on the lawn,storing stuff for the winter or serviced the truck or plow for the season.I don't think the state or even the county has finished with paving or even prepping their trucks and equipment for the season.Still seems kind of warm for anything to stay,but it could be a wake up call to get my arse moving too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I work with the material I have................. Well if you ever need some additional material.... Definitely looking like next week could be interesting for someone. The models are on to something that's for sure.... Windy, warm storm I think may be a bit of high elevation snow for WV under the C/O low and possibly flurries or snow showers for parts of NYS & PA. Coastal areas high probability for full blow strong gale force win perhaps even storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 You remind me of Wilson from Home Improvement when the bottom half of his face was always obscured by the backyard fence. Get well soon, there's finally good hockey to watch downtown this year. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS is certainly providing hints in the long range for a early season snowfall for many locations in upstate New York towards the end of next week... The ECWMF meanwhile is not nearly as optimistic for many locations in East NY with a much further west solution, although folks north of I-90 look to get a pretty good wallop as the system is a bit more wound up than the GFS has been suggesting thus far. Either way, it looks like some fun model watching to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 What about Tues night for us folks in the high elevations. I know it's not much, but it may be the first flakes here-- a little over 2 thousand feet. I see it in Alabany's grids but not Bing or Buffalo. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 buf afd: TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AND MUCH MORE INTERESTING. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A WELL DEFINED MJO EPISODE IS ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 2 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP IN THE EASTERN US. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...A ROSSBY WAVE DISPERSION RECENTLY TOOK PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC...WHICH IS LEADING TO STRONG PATTERN AMPLIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK...THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT IN TAKING A STRONG LOW BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WET SNOW A POSSIBILITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN TAKING A SUPPRESSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LOOK AT THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING STRONG A STRONG LOW OVER OR JUST WEST OF WESTERN NY IN A CLASSIC GREAT LAKES CUTTER TRACK...AND SOME CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL SIMPLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO GROW ON THE DETAILS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 And from BGM: THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW MANY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHARPEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TN VALLEY. THE ECMWF THEN TRACKS THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS TRACKS THE SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL LITTLE IMPACT HERE. THE CANADIAN SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A SFC TRACK TO OUR WEST. HPC LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION THEREFORE WENT WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH AREA REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INCLUDED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND A POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWER/SNOW SHOWERS MIX ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD SO STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ::yawn:: ::shakes off cobwebs:: What's that ? Did someone say something about snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Looking likely that higher elevations see flakes later this week. Question is whether we can get the upper levels to cool off fast enough with the system thursday/thursday night to get some flakes down into valley locations. 0z Euro seems to suggest so...GFS seems a bit more borderline. Expectations are certainly low...but always fun to see flakes falling before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z NAM super cold, heavy rain to heavy snow. As modeled, would rival Oct 4 1987 as the greatest Oct snowstorm in the Capital Region ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Keeping an eye on it here in Ithaca. Lowest temperature this fall here has only been 31F and very few other frosts. Lots of annuals still alive even this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z NAM super cold, heavy rain to heavy snow. As modeled, would rival Oct 4 1987 as the greatest Oct snowstorm in the Capital Region ever. yup...12z NAM is a weenie's dream. What's equally impressive is that the 0z Euro also looked rather potent giving much of the region substantial accumulation. NAM/Euro is usually a good duo to have on your side in the winter. Problem is its October...and looking for snow 3-4 days out this time of year is the equivalent of tracking something 7-8 days out in the dead of winter. And the 12z GFS says keep expectations in check...would be some light rain ending as a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 yup...12z NAM is a weenie's dream. What's equally impressive is that the 0z Euro also looked rather potent giving much of the region substantial accumulation. NAM/Euro is usually a good duo to have on your side in the winter. Problem is its October...and looking for snow 3-4 days out this time of year is the equivalent of tracking something 7-8 days out in the dead of winter. And the 12z GFS says keep expectations in check...would be some light rain ending as a few flakes. Yeah, GFS certainly warmer and less dynamic a system. You really need everything to come together perfectly this time of year to get something good out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 bigtime HV runner and snowstorm for CNY (possibly WNY), and eastern ontario on the 12z GEM for the end of the week ROC SYR YOW gets clocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Snow is looking more and more likely. I have a new blog post up on how to read a Skew-T...... http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Snow is looking more and more likely. I have a new blog post up on how to read a Skew-T...... http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/ I better dust off the snowboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NWS already has maps up! Man the Euro makes me happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 bigtime HV runner and snowstorm for CNY (possibly WNY), and eastern ontario on the 12z GEM for the end of the week ROC SYR YOW gets clocked Lucky you! It'll be awhile before the Big Smoke sees a 4" event I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I better dust off the snowboard. Maybe........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm in "I'll believe it when I see it mode." There will need to be some pretty decent dynamics to overcome boundary layer temps this time of year. I think the NAM's boundary layer temps are too cold. I'm at least hoping to drive the kids up into the Helderberg's on Thu evening to see some snow. I can get close to 1600' in about a 20 minute drive. Fingers are still crossed for a valley October surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 anyone seeing any auroras or is it too cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 anyone seeing any auroras or is it too cloudy Saw them here in Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just went out to check but still to many clouds around. Apparently they've been seen as far south as Virginia. Saw them here in Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Fun day of model watching ahead. NAM still remains the coldest solution...cold enough for mostly snow right down into the valleys. GFS is on the opposite end of the spectrum, would suggest only some flakes towards the end of the event with any accumulations confined to the high terrain. Euro is somewhere in the middle...although probably a bit closer to the GFS. Canadian is south with lighter QPF...but cold enough for flakes. I think the ALB NWS has reasonable thoughts at this point...lean towards the GFS on the basis of climo. Euro trying to keep things interesting for the weekend...but doesn't have really any support for such an amped up solution. Canadian and NOGAPS have the low...but keep it well offshore and associated precip well to our SE. GFS doesn't have much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 bigtime HV runner and snowstorm for CNY (possibly WNY), and eastern ontario on the 12z GEM for the end of the week ROC SYR YOW gets clocked Ok, the bike is put away....tell me more!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ok, the bike is put away....tell me more!!! haha wouldnt get your hopes up! it is october after all........and it was just one run of one model that was fun to look at for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Fun day of model watching ahead. NAM still remains the coldest solution...cold enough for mostly snow right down into the valleys. GFS is on the opposite end of the spectrum, would suggest only some flakes towards the end of the event with any accumulations confined to the high terrain. Euro is somewhere in the middle...although probably a bit closer to the GFS. Canadian is south with lighter QPF...but cold enough for flakes. I think the ALB NWS has reasonable thoughts at this point...lean towards the GFS on the basis of climo. Euro trying to keep things interesting for the weekend...but doesn't have really any support for such an amped up solution. Canadian and NOGAPS have the low...but keep it well offshore and associated precip well to our SE. GFS doesn't have much at all. I agree for now...presently think 1st storm has better chances for snow than does the weekend one. Weekend storm a la EC has support from UK; I like the latter model on ECUS storms during Oct/Nov and Mar/Apr. If cut-off develops with weekend system esp from 500 hPa down (some hint for such from the Ukie) then system's snow dump potential goes up IMO. However, as is often the case with pre-winter storms that do cut-off the heaviest precip (based on climatology) falls from the CD (and surrounding high terrain) and points southwards to both the S'rn Catskills and S'rn Taconics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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