BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Pretty crazy to think that the same places that got hit with Tornadoes today will be under 1-2 feet of snow by Friday afternoon. Absolutely insane...Wouldn't want to live anywhere else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 SPC and the possibility of a watch going up http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md2317.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wow what an exciting time to live in Upstate,NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 As I had mentioned in the Lakes forum, it appeared Westfield was one of the towns in biggest peril from the most defined low-level circulation on radar just after 5 PM EST. Reports of quite a bit of damage from around there...hopefully no injuries as this had to have been unexpected for those residents. On another note, great job by the NWS Buffalo on the handling of this event. Without much of an indication that the strongest storms would move into the area as quickly as they did, the office reacted super fast and did an excellent job at placing warnings, especially for the specific towns in the greatest danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Any updates regarding the Fredonia and Dunkirk areas? They look like they got slammed judging by radar. I heard something about considerable structural damage in the area but nothing new since that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Any updates regarding the Fredonia and Dunkirk areas? They look like they got slammed judging by radar. I heard something about considerable structural damage in the area but nothing new since that. http://www.wivb.com/dpp/weather/tornado-warning-until-6-pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Whats everyone think on Wed. Night-Fridays Lake Effect Snow possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Off of Lake Erie, it looks like there will be a layer of fairly dry air present at mid levels wednesday night to thursday morning, making it hard for the band to develop before early thursday afternoon. By around 2 pm, however, the deep moist layer extends up to around 550 mb, translating to lake induced cape above 1000 j/kg. There will be some wind shear at this time, probably resulting in some very intense lake effect cells. The wsw winds will probably bring the band into southern erie county. Around 4 pm, it looks like the shear will decrease and an intense band will organize, probably drifting southward into chautauqua county. The bufkit profile for jamestown shows an amazing 1200 j/kg of cape at this time and a LI equilibrium level above 500 mb, meaning that the band will have very intense snowfall rates and the possibility for lightning. The band will continue southward through chautauqua county and weaken by 1 am. It looks like somewhere in southern erie to northern chautauqua counties will have the potential for the greatest accumulation, with 3-4 hours of heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'm gonna go with perrysburg is the bullseye off erie with 13 inches and redfield off Ontario with 17 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 My main concern regarding the upcoming LES event...at least as far as Lake Erie is concerned...is the relatively narrow window of opportunity for all of the parameters to come together to produce a "classic" band of heavy snow. It looks like a fairly short duration event to me...not really starting until Thursday afternoon, and pretty much ending by early Friday morning. On top of that, the llvl winds aren't really projected to remain steady state for a long enough period of time to hammer one location for hours on end - it looks like a transient band to me, beginning very close to the Buffalo metro area during the initial stages of the event then rapidly settling into the Southern Tier following the passage of the trough axis Thursday evening. Another concern I have is the fact that bufkit soundings seem to depict the deepest moisture just below the dendritic growth layer (DGL) for a good portion of the event...which may hamper snow growth/ratios. Instability parameters are very good though, with lake-induced CAPEs progged to exceed 1000J and equilibrium levels pushing 20k feet. But I've seen dry air in the DGL result in some disappointing events in the past, even when the instability was projected to be very good. We'll see. There is certainly the potential for a short duration but fairly intense lake effect event that could yield advisory or perhaps low end warning criteria accumulations...but I'm not willing to climb 100% on board just yet! We'll see how the progs shape up over the next couple of days, and I'll be sure to check in with my updated thoughts whenever I can! Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 My main concern regarding the upcoming LES event...at least as far as Lake Erie is concerned...is the relatively narrow window of opportunity for all of the parameters to come together to produce a "classic" band of heavy snow. It looks like a fairly short duration event to me...not really starting until Thursday afternoon, and pretty much ending by early Friday morning. On top of that, the llvl winds aren't really projected to remain steady state for a long enough period of time to hammer one location for hours on end - it looks like a transient band to me, beginning very close to the Buffalo metro area during the initial stages of the event then rapidly settling into the Southern Tier following the passage of the trough axis Thursday evening. Another concern I have is the fact that bufkit soundings seem to depict the deepest moisture just below the dendritic growth layer (DGL) for a good portion of the event...which may hamper snow growth/ratios. Instability parameters are very good though, with lake-induced CAPEs progged to exceed 1000J and equilibrium levels pushing 20k feet. But I've seen dry air in the DGL result in some disappointing events in the past, even when the instability was projected to be very good. We'll see. There is certainly the potential for a short duration but fairly intense lake effect event that could yield advisory or perhaps low end warning criteria accumulations...but I'm not willing to climb 100% on board just yet! We'll see how the progs shape up over the next couple of days, and I'll be sure to check in with my updated thoughts whenever I can! Justin Hello from one of your old fans in Binghamton! Please tell me what kind of winter you think I'm gonna have in the southern tier!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 the 12z NAM does back the flow to 250 for a couple hours on Thursday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 18z NAM follows suit with the backing off the flow late Thursday afternoon/evening. However, it is pretty disconcerting to see the lack of model support for significant bands. The NAM usually is pretty good at putting lake-effect east of the lakes when the conditions are good. Who would think 516 dm thicknesses, 700mb RH over 70% and -9C 850s over 10-11C lakes would be so problematic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 332 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 ..MULTIPLE TORNADOES CONFIRMED ON NOV 14 2011 ..TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR FREDONIA IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEW YORK LOCATION...FREDONIA IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEW YORK DATE...NOV 14 2011 ESTIMATED TIME...454-505 PM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF2 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105-115 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...125 YDS PATH LENGTH...4.6 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.4463N/79.4279W ENDING LAT/LON...42.4429N/79.3391W * FATALITIES...NONE * INJURIES...NONE * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ..SUMMARY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO NY HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR FREDONIA IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEW YORK ON NOV 14 2011. THE TORNADO FORMED OVER LAKE ERIE AND MOVED ONSHORE ON BEACH PLACE IN FREDONIA. THERE IT RIPPED SHINGLES OFF TWO HOMES. ONE TREE FELL ON A HOME. THE SCREEN FROM THE VAN BUREN DRIVE IN WAS BLOWN OVER. SEVERAL PINE TREES WERE TOPPED ALONG VAN BUREN DRIVE. ALSO ON VAN BUREN DRIVE A BARN WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED. AS THE TORNADO MOVED EAST ACROSS FAREL ROAD EIGHT POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED. ADDITIONAL TREES WERE TOPPED AS THE TORNADO MOVED TOWARD THE VILLAGE OF FREDONIA. A GARAGE WAS DESTROYED NEAR THE CORNER OF UNIVERSITY PARK AND RISLEY STREET. A FEW MORE TREES WERE TOPPED NEAR CENTER STREET BEFORE THE FINAL LIFTOFF. ALTHOUGH THE PATH LENGTH WAS OVER FOUR MILES, THE TORNADO WAS NOT ON THE GROUND THE ENTIRE TIME. THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BUF. FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH. EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH. EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH. EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH. EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH. EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH. ..TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WESTFIELD IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEW YORK LOCATION...WESTFIELD IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEW YORK DATE...NOV 14 2011 ESTIMATED TIME...505-515 PM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF2 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105-115 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...120 YDS PATH LENGTH...3.0 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON... 42.3024N/79.5929W ENDING LAT/LON... 42.3095N/79.5366W * FATALITIES...NONE * INJURIES...NOE * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ..SUMMARY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO NY HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR WESTFIELD IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEW YORK ON NOV 14 2011. A TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN ON MUNSON STREET IN WESTFIELD WHERE A ONE-FOOT DIAMETER TREE WAS TOPPED ABOUT EIGHT FEET OFF THE GROUND. THE TORNADO MOVED WEST ACROSS COUNTY TOURING ROUTE 21. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STREET HALF OF A POLE BARN WAS DESTROYED. A MAN INSIDE THE BARN AT THE TIME WAS NOT INJURED. ACROSS THE STREET A THREE STORY BARN WAS DESTROYED. SEVERAL VEHICLES AND BOATS STORED IN THE BARN WERE DAMAGED. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED SOUTH GALE STREET. THREE OUTBUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED. TWO PEOPLE RODE OUT THE STORM IN A NEARBY VAN AND WERE NOT INJURED. FURTHER ALONG A BARN WAS DESTROYED ON MARTIN WRIGHT ROAD. SEVERAL LARGE HARDWOODS WERE SNAPPED AND TWISTED. ALSO ON MARTIN WRIGHT ROAD A HOME WAS DESTROYED. THE ATTACHED GARAGE AND BACK WALL WERE RIPPED OFF. AFTER THE FRONT WINDOW WAS BROKEN ON THE HOME THE OPPOSITE WALL WAS BLOWN OUT. TWO PEOPLE WERE IN THE HOME AT THE TIME HOWEVER THEY WERE NOT INJURED. THE HOME HAS BEEN DEEMED UNINHABITABLE. A FEW MORE TREES WERE TOPPED JUST WEST OF THE HOME BEFORE THE TORNADO LIFTED. ALTHOUGH THE PATH LENGTH WAS THREE MILES, THE TORNADO WAS NOT ON THE GROUND THE ENTIRE TIME. THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BUF. FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH. EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH. EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH. EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH. EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH. EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH. LEVAN/FISHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Thanks for the analysis about the upcoming LES possibilities. Those Tornadoes did quite a bit of damage. I have some friends of mine who I told to get in the basement when they were about to get hit. The Tornado went by 1 mile to there south. Crazy stuff! First time in 60 years a Tornado hit WNY in November. I live in the Town of Hamburg, We should get brushed by the LES on Thurs-Fri. I will be sure to take pictures and post on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Looks like this event wont be too significant. I'm gonna go with a max off Erie of 8 in Perrysburg and Max off Ontario in redfield at 12 inches. A decent little event but nothing that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Looks like this event wont be too significant. I'm gonna go with a max off Erie of 8 in Perrysburg and Max off Ontario in redfield at 12 inches. A decent little event but nothing that impressive. Cut those max totals by a third, IMO....5-6 off Erie....8 for the Tug (I think Redfield is a good choice for the max.) Winds aloft (shifting and never really aligning "well" and the relatively short duration will keep things in check... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Good news for the lake effect crowd. The Lake Erie water temperature off Buffalo was 53 this morning, tying the record high of 53 and five degrees above the long-term average for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think that there will be at least a few hours of heavy snow off of Lake Erie Thursday night as the band drifts southward, with the greatest amounts over the higher terrain. For Lake Ontario, it looks like the greatest snow potential will also be Thursday night into early Friday morning. There will probably be greater accumulations east of Lake Ontario with the greater fetch and possibility of a brief Lake Huron/Georgian Bay connection early Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The 00z Euro last night targeted central Oswego County (around Parish, NY) for the heaviest snowfall in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 FYI...a summary from NWS BUF of the two recent EF2 tornadoes: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/svrwx/111114/indextor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Cut those max totals by a third, IMO....5-6 off Erie....8 for the Tug (I think Redfield is a good choice for the max.) Winds aloft (shifting and never really aligning "well" and the relatively short duration will keep things in check... I'll be in Redfield for the event and will post results ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'll be in Redfield for the event and will post results ... There is going to be impressiveunidirectional shear on a 280- 290-degree wind orientation; also the differencebetween water and air temps will be 19 degrees C; this is more than enough to generateplenty of instability for lake effect. Right now I'm thinking 6-12 inches with more in spots. Redfield should do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 WWUS41 KBGM 162011 WSWBGM URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 311 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011 ...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ONEIDA COUNTY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY... HOWEVER A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD SHIFT SOUTH TO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND END BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. NYZ009-172015- /O.NEW.KBGM.LE.A.0005.111117T2200Z-111118T1500Z/ NORTHERN ONEIDA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF…BOONVILLE 311 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS... NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. TIMING... SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY... MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVIER LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ MSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This board has been asleep for so long........... we will see if this is enough to wake it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 You missed the Two Tornadoes "Tornado" Girl! Here is the damage reports. 2 F2 Tornadoes hit yesterday about 30 minutes from where I live. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/svrwx/111114/indextor.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/svrwx/111114/chautauqua.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 You missed the Two Tornadoes "Tornado" Girl! Here is the damage reports. 2 F2 Tornadoes hit yesterday about 30 minutes from where I live. http://www.erh.noaa....4/indextor.html http://www.erh.noaa....chautauqua.html Yeah...I saw some of the info................Thanks for the links. I have some data on the tornadoes on my facebook weather page....as well as a little on tomorrows LES event. https://www.facebook...254982781215764 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Looks like CNY could be the winner for the 1st lake effect of the season. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 424 AM EST THU NOV 17 2011 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT OF THE SEASON... COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER ONEIDA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. NYZ037-180930- /O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0014.111117T2000Z-111118T1600Z/ SOUTHERN ONEIDA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UTICA...ROME 424 AM EST THU NOV 17 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. * HAZARDS...BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO BURSTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE REMAINDER OF ONEIDA COUNTY TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM THE 30S LATE AFTERNOON...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Models have made a decided shift toward the Euro's thinking from yesterday, more of a northerly component to the BL winds, and better alingment than previously progged. First map of the year! ....with many more (hopefully) to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Good graphic from the folks at WKTV. Wind orientation for Lake Effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.