WNYLakeEffect Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I'v been through Sherman a ton of times and it definitely is the sweet spot. I know there are better locations for lake effect amounts but they get their fair share. How much did you guys end up getting. I'm pretty far from the lake but I managed to pick up 1.6" overnight. We normally get fringed though. Ended up getting 2.3" here. From what my dad said it sounds like Mayville got 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Quick burst before I left for work. The ground is now white for the first time looks nice........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I've posted another blog post. This one is Weather Models Part 2. http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/#!/2011/11/weather-models-part-2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 latest run of the GFS (6z) and the European is just awful. Warm for the forseeable future. Still looking a lot like 1974-75 in my estimation, although November 1974 was below normal in these parts. 1975-76 might be a possibility, given that November was so warm, as is 1911-12. November and December 1911 were very warm in these parts, before January and February went into the deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Does anybody else notice the affect that peninsula causes on Lake Effect bands? Hey everyone! It seems like it's been an eternity since I last posted here. I hope all is well, and you're all getting geared up for another great winter in Upstate NY. I'm hoping for a blockbuster LES event when I come home for Thanksgiving in two weeks! At any rate, PottercountyWxobserver has made a very interesting observation...and today's visible satellite imagery backs it up even further. It looks like there were two distinct "jackpot" areas with this most recent event. The first jackpot appears to have been in Chautauqua County, extending from just south of the village of Westfield across the northern end of Chautauqua Lake into Ellery, Gerry, Ellicott, and Poland. The second jackpot appears to have been in the northeastern corner of Cattaraugus County...affecting the municipalities of Ashford, Machias, and Farmersville. There is a notable absence of snowcover in between these two jackpot areas, which lines up quite nicely with areas that would have been downwind of Long Point relative to a west northwest flow: The shape of the lakeshore has a lot to do with the organization of lake effect snowbands...and areas of convergence and lake band formation are often observed downwind of a concave shoreline, which can be seen on either side of Long Point: I've never seen any "official" documentation or case studies regarding the impact of Long Point on Lake Erie snowbands, but this will be an interesting thing to watch for during future WNW flow lake effect events! Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 Hey everyone! It seems like it's been an eternity since I last posted here. I hope all is well, and you're all getting geared up for another great winter in Upstate NY. I'm hoping for a blockbuster LES event when I come home for Thanksgiving in two weeks! At any rate, PottercountyWxobserver has made a very interesting observation...and today's visible satellite imagery backs it up even further. It looks like there were two distinct "jackpot" areas with this most recent event. The first jackpot appears to have been in Chautauqua County, extending from just south of the village of Westfield across the northern end of Chautauqua Lake into Ellery, Gerry, Ellicott, and Poland. The second jackpot appears to have been in the northeastern corner of Cattaraugus County...affecting the municipalities of Ashford, Machias, and Farmersville. There is a notable absence of snowcover in between these two jackpot areas, which lines up quite nicely with areas that would have been downwind of Long Point relative to a west northwest flow: The shape of the lakeshore has a lot to do with the organization of lake effect snowbands...and areas of convergence and lake band formation are often observed downwind of a concave shoreline, which can be seen on either side of Long Point: I've never seen any "official" documentation or case studies regarding the impact of Long Point on Lake Erie snowbands, but this will be an interesting thing to watch for during future WNW flow lake effect events! Justin nice to see u back Justin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 nice to see u back Justin! Thanks! I'll be checking in from time to time over the winter, especially during LES outbreaks. Hopefully you guys can finally score a big synoptic snowstorm this year, too. I think the last major synoptic storm to dump 12"+ at BUF was back in March 2008: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us0308.php After picking up nearly 200% of our normal snowfall here in SNE last winter (most of it falling in a 5-week period)...I'm fully prepared for a winter wrought with inland runners and lakes cutters this year lol. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 Thanks! I'll be checking in from time to time over the winter, especially during LES outbreaks. Hopefully you guys can finally score a big synoptic snowstorm this year, too. I think the last major synoptic storm to dump 12"+ at BUF was back in March 2008 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us0308.php After picking up nearly 200% of our normal snowfall here in SNE last winter (most of it falling in a 5-week period)...I'm fully prepared for a winter wrought with inland runners and lakes cutters this year lol. Time will tell... Mild as hell and the models keep the torch on full throttle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Mild as hell and the models keep the torch on full throttle Will be interesting to see if Buffalo can hit 70 next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Hey everyone! It seems like it's been an eternity since I last posted here. I hope all is well, and you're all getting geared up for another great winter in Upstate NY. I'm hoping for a blockbuster LES event when I come home for Thanksgiving in two weeks! At any rate, PottercountyWxobserver has made a very interesting observation...and today's visible satellite imagery backs it up even further. It looks like there were two distinct "jackpot" areas with this most recent event. The first jackpot appears to have been in Chautauqua County, extending from just south of the village of Westfield across the northern end of Chautauqua Lake into Ellery, Gerry, Ellicott, and Poland. The second jackpot appears to have been in the northeastern corner of Cattaraugus County...affecting the municipalities of Ashford, Machias, and Farmersville. There is a notable absence of snowcover in between these two jackpot areas, which lines up quite nicely with areas that would have been downwind of Long Point relative to a west northwest flow: The shape of the lakeshore has a lot to do with the organization of lake effect snowbands...and areas of convergence and lake band formation are often observed downwind of a concave shoreline, which can be seen on either side of Long Point: I've never seen any "official" documentation or case studies regarding the impact of Long Point on Lake Erie snowbands, but this will be an interesting thing to watch for during future WNW flow lake effect events! Justin Yes, please keep me updated on the peninsula watching during the WNW flows. I was only kidding regarding the dredging out of the sand spit that is Long Point island, but it does get frustrating when a WNW flow sets up and you get robbed by the peninsula lol. I didn't think there was any type of case study, but hopefully this observation leads to one. I gotta think I'm not the only one to see this affect taking place. I'v always thought it would be interesting to think what if the lakes were slightly bigger and allowed more fetch. I also hope western PA and Western NY can cash in on some good synoptic storms over 12" + but they haven't happened in quite sometime. Here is to an inland runner and great Lake Effect events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm still in Lisbon, Portugal, but looking at models... as I return home late on Wednesday night.... It looks like some pretty cold air descends over Upstate NY for about 36-48 hours in that Wed-Fri time frame. Maybe there will be some LES off Erie or Ontario? The 1000-500 thickness gets down to down to 516 dm. Yes, please keep me updated on the peninsula watching during the WNW flows. I was only kidding regarding the dredging out of the sand spit that is Long Point island, but it does get frustrating when a WNW flow sets up and you get robbed by the peninsula lol. I didn't think there was any type of case study, but hopefully this observation leads to one. I gotta think I'm not the only one to see this affect taking place. I'v always thought it would be interesting to think what if the lakes were slightly bigger and allowed more fetch. I also hope western PA and Western NY can cash in on some good synoptic storms over 12" + but they haven't happened in quite sometime. Here is to an inland runner and great Lake Effect events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Also...about time for someone to start a Late/Fall Early Winter thread... This thread is geriatric. I'm still in Lisbon, Portugal, but looking at models... as I return home late on Wednesday night.... It looks like some pretty cold air descends over Upstate NY for about 36-48 hours in that Wed-Fri time frame. Maybe there will be some LES off Erie or Ontario? The 1000-500 thickness gets down to down to 516 dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHTFOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...WITH A CONSENSUSAMONG THE NAM/GFS/GGEM/EUROPEAN SUGGESTING A DROP TO AROUND -7C AT850 MB BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. MORE IMPORTANTLY...AN UPPER LEVELTROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING ONTHURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE...AND DEEPEN THE MIXING LAYER.THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE STILL ARE SOMEMODEST DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.THEREFORE ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING...OR TO KNOWEXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTUREINCREASES...AND AS NIGHTTIME STABILITY ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ON EACHOF THE LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY SHIFT TO 260 AHEAD OF THESHORTWAVE....BEFORE VEERING TO AROUND 280 BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. OFFLAKE ERIE...THIS MAY BRIEFLY PUSH A BAND INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP SOUTH WITH THEPASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WINDSWILL HAVE SHIFTED...WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS FOCUSING MORE ON THEWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ON THE TUG HILL.OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF THE TROF AND LAKE MOISTURE MAY SPAWNSNOW SHOWERS ON THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30SAND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION.THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BESTCHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOCUSING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ON THE TUGHILL DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMEAND LOCATION FOR SNOW...AS GFS BUFKIT SHOWS LAKE A DEEP MIXING LAYERUNDERNEATH THE TROF...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHTFOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...WITH A CONSENSUSAMONG THE NAM/GFS/GGEM/EUROPEAN SUGGESTING A DROP TO AROUND -7C AT850 MB BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. MORE IMPORTANTLY...AN UPPER LEVELTROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING ONTHURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE...AND DEEPEN THE MIXING LAYER.THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.WHILE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE STILL ARE SOMEMODEST DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.THEREFORE ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING...OR TO KNOWEXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTUREINCREASES...AND AS NIGHTTIME STABILITY ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ON EACHOF THE LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY SHIFT TO 260 AHEAD OF THESHORTWAVE....BEFORE VEERING TO AROUND 280 BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. OFFLAKE ERIE...THIS MAY BRIEFLY PUSH A BAND INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP SOUTH WITH THEPASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WINDSWILL HAVE SHIFTED...WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS FOCUSING MORE ON THEWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ON THE TUG HILL.OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF THE TROF AND LAKE MOISTURE MAY SPAWNSNOW SHOWERS ON THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30SAND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION.THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BESTCHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT FOCUSING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ON THE TUGHILL DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMEAND LOCATION FOR SNOW...AS GFS BUFKIT SHOWS LAKE A DEEP MIXING LAYERUNDERNEATH THE TROF...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPES. what about the metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 what about the metro area? take it easy...it's still 72 hours away...the difference between between 250-255 and 260 is small potatoes at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 take it easy...it's still 72 hours away...the difference between between 250-255 and 260 is small potatoes at that range. i have yet to see a decent snow flake lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 someone in NYS is getting over a foot of snow on Thursday...bank on it. It's either going to be on the Tug or on the Chautauqua Ridge...maybe both. Instability parameters are through the roof. Similar instability to Nov. 20th 2000...500s of -35 to -37...700s of -20C...and 850s of near -10C...we just don't have the right wind direction for Buffalo metro being progged. Buffalo's best bet is either the trailing shortwave on Thursday verifies stronger and backs the low-level flow ahead of it to the WSW or the warm advection that occurs on Friday backs the flow to the WSW before we lose the instability and the antecedent cold air. Thunderstorm ongoing here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 3 Tornado Warnings in WNY in NOVEMBER. IS THIS SERIOUS? THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DUNKIRK...FREDONIA... SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 530 PM EST * AT 445 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF FREDONIA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DUNKIRK... FREDONIA... SILVER CREEK... PERRYSBURG... ANGOLA... COLLINS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Doppler radar indicating strong rotation moving ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Multiple rotations coming ashore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 3 Tornado Warnings in WNY in NOVEMBER. IS THIS SERIOUS? THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DUNKIRK...FREDONIA... SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 530 PM EST * AT 445 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF FREDONIA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DUNKIRK... FREDONIA... SILVER CREEK... PERRYSBURG... ANGOLA... COLLINS... Erie County, PA is also under a tornado warning for two separate storms. * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 530 PM EST * AT 444 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF ERIE COUNTY. ONE STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF GIRARD...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ERIE...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. THE OTHER STORM WAS LOCATED 10 WEST OF NORTHEAST ALSO MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The storm relative velocity radar shows the couplet right near dunkirk moving east/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Lined up pretty much along the entire shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 CNY What radar is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 KBUF I am bored at work Here's the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 someone in NYS is getting over a foot of snow on Thursday...bank on it. It's either going to be on the Tug or on the Chautauqua Ridge...maybe both. Instability parameters are through the roof. Similar instability to Nov. 20th 2000...500s of -35 to -37...700s of -20C...and 850s of near -10C...we just don't have the right wind direction for Buffalo metro being progged. Buffalo's best bet is either the trailing shortwave on Thursday verifies stronger and backs the low-level flow ahead of it to the WSW or the warm advection that occurs on Friday backs the flow to the WSW before we lose the instability and the antecedent cold air. Thunderstorm ongoing here right now. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Talking about Lake Effect Snow while Tornadoes are all over WNY. Are you crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Structural damage and trees down being reported in Dunkirk and Fredonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 608 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0503 PM HAIL RIPLEY 42.27N 79.71W 11/14/2011 M0.88 INCH CHAUTAUQUA NY TRAINED SPOTTER HAIL COVERED THE GROUND 0510 PM TSTM WND DMG WESTFIELD 42.32N 79.58W 11/14/2011 CHAUTAUQUA NY TRAINED SPOTTER ROOFS BLOWN OFF HOUSES VICINITY WESTFIELD 0512 PM TSTM WND DMG VERSAILLES 42.52N 79.00W 11/14/2011 CATTARAUGUS NY TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS TREES DOWN 0514 PM TSTM WND DMG PERRYSBURG 42.46N 79.00W 11/14/2011 CATTARAUGUS NY TRAINED SPOTTER POWER POLES DOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Talking about Lake Effect Snow while Tornadoes are all over WNY. Are you crazy? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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