Logan11 Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 It's pretty brisk and windy here this morning, although certainly not to high wind warning criteria. 52F and not moving much. BKN with some sunny breaks. On 10/14/2011 at 9:23 PM, Wx4cast said: HW Warning now up downwind of the east end of LO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Very brisk here in Toronto. I'm not sure if EC is simply up to its usual warm bias, but the storm for the middle of this week isn't looking like much for my area. Accuweather over hyping again? I'm not happy with what the 0z and 6z GFS runs showed for next Sunday (the 23rd). That is one day I could do without snow or rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Just beautiful. 0.67" today with moderate rain right now. 43F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Nice 1-hr temp drop at KALB this afternoon. Went from 62.6F to 52F. Probably the result of cool air and precipitation brought down to the surface that also caused some evaporational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I wonder if any of this stuff moving across NY State is lake effect. When that squall came through here it dropped us to 46 out here near Delanson. 47 and quite windy with lighter showers now. On 10/15/2011 at 9:36 PM, Thunderhead said: Nice 1-hr temp drop at KALB this afternoon. Went from 62.6F to 52F. Probably the result of cool air and precipitation brought down to the surface that also caused some evaporational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 On 10/15/2011 at 10:33 PM, Logan11 said: I wonder if any of this stuff moving across NY State is lake effect. When that squall came through here it dropped us to 46 out here near Delanson. 47 and quite windy with lighter showers now. It could have been lake-effect, but it also could have been non-lake related instability showers in westerly flow. The convective temperature, which Andy likes to use when forecasting thunderstorms, was around 58-59F on this morning's and evening's soundings. We just surpassed the convective temperature when the squall was approaching. I suppose that given the large-scale flow, Lake Erie might have added a bit more moisture to our air, but by and large it doesn't matter out here. 12z Saturday ALB sounding: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11101512_OBS/ALB.gif 00z Sunday ALB sounding: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11101600_OBS/ALB.gif Perhaps others have different views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 i switched on the weather maps a couple weeks ago. watching the progression, its obvious we are getting closer and closer now (as we should be ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 On 10/16/2011 at 4:45 PM, Organizing Low said: i switched on the weather maps a couple weeks ago. watching the progression, its obvious we are getting closer and closer now (as we should be ) I'm getting close. I'll switch to winter mode as soon as I put my bike away. (which unfortunetly will be very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hate to post something from the 18z GFS and 276hr out, but this is just nuts: Definitely would see some LES here. And of course my last cross country race is on...the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 On 10/17/2011 at 11:24 PM, WNYLakeEffect said: Hate to post something from the 18z GFS and 276hr out, but this is just nuts: Definitely would see some LES here. And of course my last cross country race is on...the 28th. If this storm came to pass - which it won't- it would be one heck of a pre-halloween snowstorm for Ottawa and Montreal. Toronto would even get in on some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 On 10/17/2011 at 11:30 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: If this storm came to pass - which it won't- it would be one heck of a pre-halloween snowstorm for Ottawa and Montreal. Toronto would even get in on some of the action. That is one good looking storm for pre haloween. Has 850s dropping down to -12 in some parts of Upstate. Would really be awesome if this came true. But one good thing to note is the GFS has had almost 10 straight runs of showing a cold shot sometime next week. i definitly think that many of us are going to see our first snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/16/2011 at 6:14 PM, Sub_Zero said: I'm getting close. I'll switch to winter mode as soon as I put my bike away. (which unfortunetly will be very soon was out and about in the neighborhood this weekend and noticed that all the driveway snowsticks were up for all of the plow companies sure sign now that it is anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The 12Z GFS today still has a winter storm running the coast later next week, but I would just caution that at one time this upcoming storm was modelled as a lot colder. Then each successive run warmed up. On 10/17/2011 at 11:47 PM, lakeeffectkid382 said: That is one good looking storm for pre haloween. Has 850s dropping down to -12 in some parts of Upstate. Would really be awesome if this came true. But one good thing to note is the GFS has had almost 10 straight runs of showing a cold shot sometime next week. i definitly think that many of us are going to see our first snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 5:52 PM, Logan11 said: The 12Z GFS today still has a winter storm running the coast later next week, but I would just caution that at one time this upcoming storm was modelled as a lot colder. Then each successive run warmed up. Not really its been flip flopping from minimum 850s of -6 on one run to minimum 850s and a run later. It really just seems to be going back and forth not just warming up each run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Maybe it still gets -6C 850 into BUF behind this current storm (on some runs), but I have just been looking at ENY and NE where it has very little cold air ever getting to us now. Next weeks storm it still has much colder. On 10/18/2011 at 6:28 PM, lakeeffectkid382 said: Not really its been flip flopping from minimum 850s of -6 on one run to minimum 850s and a run later. It really just seems to be going back and forth not just warming up each run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/18/2011 at 6:47 PM, Logan11 said: Maybe it still gets -6C 850 into BUF behind this current storm (on some runs), but I have just been looking at ENY and NE where it has very little cold air ever getting to us now. Next weeks storm it still has much colder. No change in pattern 'til I get back to work circa 12/10 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 1:24 AM, Wx4cast said: No change in pattern 'til I get back to work circa 12/10 ! I noticed you have been missing in action. You ok bud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Rainfall warning has been issued for Toronto. possibly up to 2" of rain overnight tonight into Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The Euro loves the SE ridge and keeps it relatively warm in the East. I'd put money on the GFS being overzealous with the cold air in the medium range. It's already back off from the more extreme solutions yesterday and the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/19/2011 at 11:02 AM, FEFD17 said: I noticed you have been missing in action. You ok bud? recovering from surgery to my hand and wrist. The hand is basically rebuilt with a plate, pins and a bone graft. i will be out of work 'til Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 12:01 PM, Wx4cast said: recovering from surgery to my hand and wrist. The hand is basically rebuilt with a plate, pins and a bone graft. i will be out of work 'til Dec. I am glad you are on the mend now, but that sucks too. I had my shoulder rebuilt with a screw and some assorted nylon. Did you use a local surgeon? I used Dr.Kirkpatrick, and have nothing but great things to say about him. Get better soon. BTW-if you need anything, I wil do what I can just let me know. There will be no storms until your back anyway, we need you the wizard to get it right!! Get better soon my friend and talk to you later!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Of course the 0Z Euro has us slammed by a crippling early season Noreaster late next week. LOL On 10/21/2011 at 2:56 PM, FEFD17 said: I am glad you are on the mend now, but that sucks too. I had my shoulder rebuilt with a screw and some assorted nylon. Did you use a local surgeon? I used Dr.Kirkpatrick, and have nothing but great things to say about him. Get better soon. BTW-if you need anything, I wil do what I can just let me know. There will be no storms until your back anyway, we need you the wizard to get it right!! Get better soon my friend and talk to you later!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 3:02 PM, Logan11 said: Of course the 0Z Euro has us slammed by a crippling early season Noreaster late next week. LOL True Rick, But the good news is both the Euro and GFS show maybe 2-3 inches of the white stuff Leeward of the lakes. At least it was yesterday, I haven't checked today......It will most likely change but I can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 12:01 PM, Wx4cast said: recovering from surgery to my hand and wrist. The hand is basically rebuilt with a plate, pins and a bone graft. i will be out of work 'til Dec. I still think you need a cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 2:56 PM, FEFD17 said: I am glad you are on the mend now, but that sucks too. I had my shoulder rebuilt with a screw and some assorted nylon. Did you use a local surgeon? I used Dr.Kirkpatrick, and have nothing but great things to say about him. Get better soon. BTW-if you need anything, I wil do what I can just let me know. There will be no storms until your back anyway, we need you the wizard to get it right!! Get better soon my friend and talk to you later!! Thanks! I'll keep it in mind. No the surgeon was down in Saratoga. Dr. Byrt one of the best hand surgeons in the state. On 10/21/2011 at 3:16 PM, Tornado Girl said: I still think you need a cape I see you're a comedian now too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 3:02 PM, Logan11 said: Of course the 0Z Euro has us slammed by a crippling early season Noreaster late next week. LOL The GFS has been holding onto some snow in the 28th-30th time frame now for quite a few days now. It just varies each run whether or not the heavier precip. comes in during the peak of the cold or just before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 12:01 PM, Wx4cast said: recovering from surgery to my hand and wrist. The hand is basically rebuilt with a plate, pins and a bone graft. i will be out of work 'til Dec. You remind me of Wilson from Home Improvement when the bottom half of his face was always obscured by the backyard fence. Get well soon, there's finally good hockey to watch downtown this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 4:43 PM, West Mtn NY said: The GFS has been holding onto some snow in the 28th-30th time frame now for quite a few days now. It just varies each run whether or not the heavier precip. comes in during the peak of the cold or just before. The 00z Canadian has joined the snow party for end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On 10/21/2011 at 4:14 PM, Wx4cast said: Thanks! I'll keep it in mind. No the surgeon was down in Saratoga. Dr. Byrt one of the best hand surgeons in the state. I see you're a comedian now too! I work with the material I have................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Definitely looking like next week could be interesting for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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