supermeh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know everyone is talking about Irene, but tomorrow could be a fun day for Storms. I didn't want to clog the other threads so I thought maybe a new topic should be started. Anyways, the 12z NAM looks like it has a nice line coming through tomorrow. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's been pretty consistent showing a good hit late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not sure how strong or severe the storms would be but would be a decent amount of rain (not that we need it) I know everyone is talking about Irene, but tomorrow could be a fun day for Storms. I didn't want to clog the other threads so I thought maybe a new topic should be started. Anyways, the 12z NAM looks like it has a nice line coming through tomorrow. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's been pretty consistent showing a good hit late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Not sure how strong or severe the storms would be but would be a decent amount of rain (not that we need it) I don't think there be a widespread severe weather outbreak due to lack of wind shear and other factors but t-storms are good possibility tomorrow afternoon or evening with main threat is heavy downpours. I wouldn't completely rule out an isolated severe storm in few spots like in NJ/NYC or lower Hudson Valley. If any strong to severe storms do occur tomorrow anywhere in the Tri- State area that would more likely be more significant than the effects of Irene for Sunday the way things are trending right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 SPC AC 241731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE EMBEDDED VORT MAX PIVOTS NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE SERN STATES. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES... STORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. RICHER MOISTURE WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST FARTHER AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WHERE MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. STRONGER SHEAR FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WHERE STRONGER LLJ WILL ALSO EXIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING VORT MAX. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARM SECTOR...AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY ADVANCE INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A LOW END SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FLOW DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Shear is 30 kts and CAPE is ok. I think we could see a 60% chance of storms today, possibly SVR. Watch out from 12pm on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If any strong to severe storms do occur tomorrow anywhere in the Tri- State area that would more likely be more significant than the effects of Irene for Sunday the way things are trending right now. REALLY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 radar looks half way decent this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Most of the severe wording was taken out. Looks like downpours and some flash flooding would be our main issue as opposed to winds/hail. radar looks half way decent this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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