Mikehobbyst Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I am thinking 50-100 miles east of the 1991 Bob track and a similar parabolic shape. The Global / Dynamic models trending east supports this opinion and the east trend likely continuing. 00Z ECMWF and HWRF seem like western outliers and are likely wrong with lack of the normal and usual NNE to NE turn after passing HSE latitude. Happens countless times when the strike zone is 250 miles too far west 4-5 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Seems now the threat for thunderstorms and possibly some isolated severe weather maybe more of a story on Thursday then Irene. Based on the trend and the past 20 years since Bob it mainly has been a trend east and I think this will be a fish storm or best it may brush the cape with some rain for LI and Coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have a good feeling about this being a fish or Cape Cod storm and will hopefully be packing the Elizabeth Haub clownfish earth saving bag with hershey candy, peanut butter crackers, Pims cookies, and a ham & cheese sandwich for my Grandparent instead of scrapped plans and hurricane damage. Pray for the east solutions to continue and verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Worthless thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This could be discussed on Irene topic like said based on the trend of models it looks either to be Cape storm or fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 good call, this is gunna be a fish storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just about anything is possible still with this storm. Track errors 5 days out can be several hundred miles. People need to stop with the winter-style "storm cancel11!!!111!!" posts. Is the destructive 1821 or Gloria, etc track likely? No, but I don't see how so many are dismissing it altogether because of a shift in 2-3 models. And even if it does miss, 6" or more rain in some areas isn't anything to sneeze at either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If it does miss se of montauk as I am thinking, nyc may not even see rain...heavy rain for the area is far from a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Agree though, east trend is undeniable==always happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Worthless thread. No it's good. Keeps this nonsense out of the main NYC Irene thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 you can't rule out anything at this point...I've been on the fish track for days now but I won't rule out a Long Island hit...It's to early to speculate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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