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Good night Irene


Mikehobbyst

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I am thinking 50-100 miles east of the 1991 Bob track and a similar parabolic shape. The Global / Dynamic models trending east supports this opinion and the east trend likely continuing. 00Z ECMWF and HWRF seem like western outliers and are likely wrong with lack of the normal and usual NNE to NE turn after passing HSE latitude. Happens countless times when the strike zone is 250 miles too far west 4-5 days in advance.

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Seems now the threat for thunderstorms and possibly some isolated severe weather maybe more of a story on Thursday then Irene. Based on the trend and the past 20 years since Bob it mainly has been a trend east and I think this will be a fish storm or best it may brush the cape with some rain for LI and Coastal CT.

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I have a good feeling about this being a fish or Cape Cod storm and will hopefully be packing the Elizabeth Haub clownfish earth saving bag with hershey candy, peanut butter crackers, Pims cookies, and a ham & cheese sandwich for my Grandparent instead of scrapped plans and hurricane damage. Pray for the east solutions to continue and verify.

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Just about anything is possible still with this storm. Track errors 5 days out can be several hundred miles. People need to stop with the winter-style "storm cancel11!!!111!!" posts.

Is the destructive 1821 or Gloria, etc track likely? No, but I don't see how so many are dismissing it altogether because of a shift in 2-3 models. And even if it does miss, 6" or more rain in some areas isn't anything to sneeze at either.

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