phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Time to get the discussion going on 90L although I think it will be overshadowed by its big sister for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Do you have the spagetti maps for this one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The system looks healthy to me thus far, however I imagine it it gets strong quick it would get caught up in the westerlies. Thus it would become a fish storm, but still something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Got a cherry SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I just hope it makes it past 45W. Environment seems nasty. Might have to make way for the wave or two behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 70%, getting up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I just hope it makes it past 45W. Environment seems nasty. Might have to make way for the wave or two behind it. It seems like things are a go for this to become a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours, but anything beyond a strong tropical storm looks iffy as it gets caught up in a weakness in the mid-level ridge and effectively gets stuck as the ridge tries to build back in. Meanwhile, upper level westerlies rip it to shreds. Shades of Fred 2009 although I doubt it ever gets that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Taking a look at the models more closely, I'm really surprised the Euro is not developing the system more than it is right now... it doesn't even really have a depression. This might be one of the few times the GFS scores a coup against the ECWMF in regards to genesis, but it hasn't happened yet so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, very healthy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yep looks like 90L will be a depression or storm later today... very impressive IR presentation for an invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 2. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 TD#10 is born! looks like it will be a rather boring storms though if the NHC forecast is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well........... maybe it will get to hurricane strength... not betting on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm not even sure this makes it to tropical storm strength... the convection is strong but the system is highly elongated looking at the most recent microwave. This structure needs to improve before any sort of development can take place, regardless of the environment. About half of the intensity guidance models show little to no development, and that could prove to be true if convection fizzles later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 It looks even worse on the most recent microwave... I don't think this system will make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 TD10 look bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... With that, it's dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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