Arnold214 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: the cyclone's intensity if and when it reaches New England... Yep, it's highly linked to its forward speed once it crosses 35N. Right now, it's modeled to move relatively slowly for a 'cane in this region, but I'm wondering if the models might start speeding it up and bringing it more in line with climo. We have a couple of days. I'd definitely prefer something ripping up the coast, that's for sure. I think it will speed up faster than currently modeled but probably not in line with climo. I'd say that an anomalously slow system would portend to epic rainfall but I guess that doesn't have to be the case. The rainfall with Belle was relatively unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here is the larger picture of what the 00z models tell us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If they survived in 1944 and 1938 and 1821 and 1635, I think we'll be fine. ??? What part of the infrastructure was here in 1944? Our power grid is pretty fragile...see Dec 2008. Imagine that x 10 or x 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here is the larger picture of what the 00z models tell us. Thoughts? Flight home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If they survived in 1944 and 1938 and 1821 and 1635, I think we'll be fine. Who said anything about people dieing? By the way, get all your cash you need out on Friday, AtMs suck with no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd definitely prefer something ripping up the coast, that's for sure. I think it will speed up faster than currently modeled but probably not in line with climo. I'd say that an anomalously slow system would portend to epic rainfall but I guess that doesn't have to be the case. The rainfall with Belle was relatively unimpressive. Epic rain is probably one of my biggest concerns right now in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thoughts? Post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Post less LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Epic rain is probably one of my biggest concerns right now in CT. Chipmunks floating to their deaths in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Epic rain is probably one of my biggest concerns right now in CT. Would you generally be more concerned with urban/flash flooding or river flooding in a situation like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Post less 5 posts a day please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would you generally be more concerned with urban/flash flooding or river flooding in a situation like this? both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Our power grid is built 10X stronger than back then. Also, we could argue that "loose" trees/ power lines were knocked down during the ice storm. I work for northeast utilities/ transmission structures are designed for 100 mph winds. This storm however, will be up there with power outages if it stays on current track, no doubt. Just look at the wind storm of Feb 2010 in NH! I think a lot of stuff could have loosened up in two and a half years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 5 posts a day please Alright, sorry.I'm done. I'm just excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Chipmunks floating to their deaths in Tolland. if we all donate $5 we can get you on a flight back here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just noticed this...some pretty ridiculous ventilation/upper level divergence being forecasted by the GFS at 120 hours...150 kt jet streak at 200mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 if we all donate $5 we can get you on a flight back here. LOL. Maybe Scott is the hurricane jinx that has plagued us for 20 years and 5 days. Please keep him away if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just noticed this...some pretty ridiculous ventilation/upper level divergence being forecasted by the GFS at 120 hours...150 kt jet streak at 200mb. PREeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 both The reason I ask is that this area got 6" or so in a night from the remnants of Kyle in a night ('08 I think) and there was no river flooding. I suppose it all has to do with the amount of rain and river conditions prior to the storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Alright, sorry.I'm done. I'm just excited. Let's not make SNE threads like the main thread, I think snowNH has mostly had useful posts with the same amount of banter posts as any of the other regulars on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 PREeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Probably latent heat release firing up the jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Alright, sorry.I'm done. I'm just excited. Dude NE utilities is not CLP, we have issues in CT that are OT thread worthy, I could write book, starting with loss of phase on 3 phase motors, all 23 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Probably latent heat release firing up the jet streak. Cirrus to Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Probably latent heat release firing up the jet streak. a loop shows that it is originally synoptically driven by the shortwave with the low heights over Eastern Canada...but it's definitely being enhanced by the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 if we all donate $5 we can get you on a flight back here. LOL. Maybe Scott is the hurricane jinx that has plagued us for 20 years and 5 days. Please keep him away if that's the case. I joked about this 5 months ago when we planned this. I sh*t you not. Well if you get hit, I'll enjoy the obs from here. It's all good. Having a blast so far and Yosemite and SFO to come. No need to sacrifice a marriage to weenie out during a cane..lol. Although I would not disagree if she wanted to get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If these tracks hold for 5 more days, then I'm gonna preeeeeeeeeeeeeee all over my keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 let's put it this way... Connecticut and the power company were unable to really handle the damage from 6 hours of 50-60 knot gusts in some lower Fairfield County towns in the March 2010 noreaster. Power outages for 6 days and roads closed in Greenwich for days. And the power companies were working there azzes of trust me, my wifes family who live about 3 miles north of rte 1 in the back country had no power for 7 days. That area is filled with massive maples, ash and oak.........the area from Greewich - stamford-darien and even into Norwalk and Westport were just decimated. Trees down everywhere. Since then the power companies have truly done a ton of pruning along roadways.....but its a losing battle if something like Irene comes through as modeled, forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Dude NE utilities is not CLP, we have issues in CT that are OT thread worthy, I could write book, starting with loss of phase on 3 phase motors, all 23 of them. Yes it is... PSNH WMECO and CLP are all NU... soon to be NSTAR as well. http://www.cl-p.com/Home Look at the website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The reason I ask is that this area got 6" or so in a night from the remnants of Kyle in a night ('08 I think) and there was no river flooding. I suppose it all has to do with the amount of rain and river conditions prior to the storm, though. Dom, rivers are pretty well above the Median but not insanely so, but more rain Friday and then.... http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The main threads are filled with DBs.....you can't say anything without being cyberraped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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