Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This is my 65th hurricane season....maybe my 58th of awareness. My benchmark storms are Carol, Edna, Hazel, Donna, and to a much lesser extent Bob. Disclaimer: I was on the west coast for Gloria. I'm thinking Irene has a solid chance of making into my personal hall of fame.

You might have missed it but Scooters heading out West, I kidded him about being the Jerry of old winters, Bliz of 78 style.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess we can definitely say the east trend has finally stopped. It slowed/stopped at 12z and now we're going in the other direction a bit.

The thing is it can easily resume. All that has to happen in a hair more westerlies develop and it goes to the BM.

Given the modeled slower than normal speed of the storm do you think this has a chance to make landfall in SNE as a 'cane?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jb: BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Classic example of why MY POWER SCALE IS BETTER. AT 969 with an eye, do you think this is a cat 1?

Oh God, here we go. The usual with JB and his constant doubting and bashing of the NHC/NWS. I guess if this gets upgraded to a cat 2 or 3 at 11 he'll claim that he saw it before NHC and how come he's the only one that did?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing is it can easily resume. All that has to happen in a hair more westerlies develop and it goes to the BM.

Given the modeled slower than normal speed of the storm do you think this has a chance to make landfall in SNE as a 'cane?

Oh absolutely to point number 1. The east trend had been so substantial each consecutive run we were 5 runs away from the thing hitting Bermuda. So I guess I'm glad the trend ceased.

To the second point I don't know. I think the winds may disappoint given the cool SSTs/no baroclinic enhance... but at the same time the duration of any winds could be impressive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh God, here we go. The usual with JB and his constant doubting and bashing of the NHC/NWS. I guess if this gets upgraded to a cat 2 or 3 at 11 he'll claim that he saw it before NHC and how come he's the only one that did?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi I respect all TPC forecast ideas.. whether I agree or not. But things like this baffle me to no end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jb: BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Classic example of why MY POWER SCALE IS BETTER. AT 969 with an eye, do you think this is a cat 1?

What an idiotic statement from him. Yes, it is a Cat 1 if it has Cat-1 winds. The central pressure isn't what rips roofs off of buildings.

He's so busy trying to entertain his audiences, he doesn't bother to stay up with the latest research Re: wind-pressure relationships.

Ugh-- that guy is just... ugh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol it was fine... did a lot of national stuff too inbetween network special reports. Just another day on the job.

Good practice for wall to wall hurricane coverage?

I will have the TV on for that and your station too, do not watch TV anymore other than sports and Swamp people, crazy times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a curiosity question, I'm reading storm surged peaked at 11.5' in Providence during Bob, but I'm assuming that was peak tide height, not storm surge? Guessing the surge was really only 7' or so.

2011-08-28 07:54 EDT 5.50 feet High Tide

2011-08-28 13:18 EDT -0.35 feet Low Tide

2011-08-28 18:51 EDT Moonset

2011-08-28 19:26 EDT Sunset

2011-08-28 20:15 EDT 5.92 feet High Tide

With astronomical tides this high, would only need a 1-1.5' surge to reach flood stage and a 5.5' surge to echo Bob.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: the cyclone's intensity if and when it reaches New England... Yep, it's highly linked to its forward speed once it crosses 35N. Right now, it's modeled to move relatively slowly for a 'cane in this region, but I'm wondering if the models might start speeding it up and bringing it more in line with climo. We have a couple of days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing is it can easily resume. All that has to happen in a hair more westerlies develop and it goes to the BM.

Given the modeled slower than normal speed of the storm do you think this has a chance to make landfall in SNE as a 'cane?

Great question, this is why I'm not particularly excited although watching the hysteria on tv will be fun to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh absolutely to point number 1. The east trend had been so substantial each consecutive run we were 5 runs away from the thing hitting Bermuda. So I guess I'm glad the trend ceased.

To the second point I don't know. I think the winds may disappoint given the cool SSTs/no baroclinic enhance... but at the same time the duration of any winds could be impressive.

Igor in Bermuda with 30-36 hours of TS winds lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing is it can easily resume. All that has to happen in a hair more westerlies develop and it goes to the BM.

Given the modeled slower than normal speed of the storm do you think this has a chance to make landfall in SNE as a 'cane?

SHIPS does at 75, if it would happen it would be this time of year, funny little lobe of higher SSTs pointing at the Twin Forks, lots of warm water fish caught on the beaches this year , weird year for fishing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Igor in Bermuda with 30-36 hours of TS winds lol.

let's put it this way... Connecticut and the power company were unable to really handle the damage from 6 hours of 50-60 knot gusts in some lower Fairfield County towns in the March 2010 noreaster. Power outages for 6 days and roads closed in Greenwich for days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

let's put it this way... Connecticut and the power company were unable to really handle the damage from 6 hours of 50-60 knot gusts in some lower Fairfield County towns in the March 2010 noreaster. Power outages for 6 days and roads closed in Greenwich for days.

You know it Ryan, my biggest concern is the effect the economy has had on infrastructure, believe me I deal with that reality daily. Gonna suck if it's a MAtlantic to Maine thing, no help available, just saying

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: the cyclone's intensity if and when it reaches New England... Yep, it's highly linked to its forward speed once it crosses 35N. Right now, it's modeled to move relatively slowly for a 'cane in this region, but I'm wondering if the models might start speeding it up and bringing it more in line with climo. We have a couple of days.

What would cause it to speed up? The trough pulling further north into Canada?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know it Ryan, my biggest concern is the effect the economy has had on infrastructure, believe me I deal with that reality daily. Gonna suck if it's a MAtlantic to Maine thing, no help available, just saying

If they survived in 1944 and 1938 and 1821 and 1635, I think we'll be fine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know a lot of you guys don't watch tv...and don't like TWC...but if you're a broadcaster...or an aspiring broadcaster...watch and listen to Bryan Norcross...he's a true broadcast professional with a great delivery.

I though he did a nice job on the 8PM segment, although he needs to slow it down a little...Cantore was decent on that as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...