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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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GFS tries to landfall it at 963mb...that would be a solid cat 2 most likely...I have my doubts on that type of intensity, though the Euro is landfalling it at 955mb in S NJ.

After today's trends, I am almost 100% certain I will need a couple of generators or more.

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After today's trends, I am almost 100% certain I will need a couple of generators or more.

I think landfall will be east of you so the best winds will be east...but you could still see pretty high gusts on the left side due to slow forward speed. Not sure how easily you lose power...if 60mph does it then you will probably need generators, lol.

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I think landfall will be east of you so the best winds will be east...but you could still see pretty high gusts on the left side due to slow forward speed. Not sure how easily you lose power...if 60mph does it then you will probably need generators, lol.

Really easily lol. I've lost it in 40 mph winds. How far to the east? Gloria-like? Bill from NWS Upton was saying it's best to take Euro/GFS compromise track. I had 60mph gusts here in Bob.

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Gibbs says blend of 38 and Floyd

1938 like intensity with a Floyd like track? That would actually work well with the kinds of trends we are seeing today.... except the intensity part, which would probably be a Cat 2. Lee Goldberg said a Floyd track over Jones Beach at Cat 2.

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I haven't seen or read anything about potential impacts for the southern Maine coast. I guess in these latest scenarios Irene will have been over land for a bit before she gets to our latitude, but I'd think that being on the right side of the storm with a lot of south-facing coastline we'd be pretty vulnerable to both wind and surge (and no, not all of Maine's coastline is high rocky cliffs; much of the southern coast is comprised of sandy beaches and inlets). Thoughts anyone?

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I haven't seen or read anything about potential impacts for the southern Maine coast. I guess in these latest scenarios Irene will have been over land for a bit before she gets to our latitude, but I'd think that being on the right side of the storm with a lot of south-facing coastline we'd be pretty vulnerable to both wind and surge (and no, not all of Maine's coastline is high rocky cliffs; much of the southern coast is comprised of sandy beaches and inlets). Thoughts anyone?

Weirdly enough, the NY mets (Goldberg) down here were talking about this being a Cat 1 all the way to coastal Maine.

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Gibbs says blend of 38 and Floyd

That's a heck of a range -

One thing I am noticing is a trend for a stronger trough into the eastern lakes - this is also reflected in the 18z GFS' depiction of a much faster translating system. It goes from the Va Capes to LI in just 12 hours, then to western Maine in another ... That's approaching azz-hauling speeds. The 18z GFS brings an upper emergency type scenario for much of the area, with flooding over the CT River Valley, and wind issues clear to the southern half of NH.

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