40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS is just about perfect...runs it just to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah, looks like the eye passes over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS is just about perfect...runs it just to my west. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFS tries to landfall it at 963mb...that would be a solid cat 2 most likely...I have my doubts on that type of intensity, though the Euro is landfalling it at 955mb in S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS skakes hands with the HWRF and the EURO is well west....alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFS tries to landfall it at 963mb...that would be a solid cat 2 most likely...I have my doubts on that type of intensity, though the Euro is landfalling it at 955mb in S NJ. After today's trends, I am almost 100% certain I will need a couple of generators or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFS tries to landfall it at 963mb...that would be a solid cat 2 most likely...I have my doubts on that type of intensity, though the Euro is landfalling it at 955mb in S NJ. gloria was 965 in CT as a 65 knot cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 After today's trends, I am almost 100% certain I will need a couple of generators or more. I think landfall will be east of you so the best winds will be east...but you could still see pretty high gusts on the left side due to slow forward speed. Not sure how easily you lose power...if 60mph does it then you will probably need generators, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think landfall will be east of you so the best winds will be east...but you could still see pretty high gusts on the left side due to slow forward speed. Not sure how easily you lose power...if 60mph does it then you will probably need generators, lol. Really easily lol. I've lost it in 40 mph winds. How far to the east? Gloria-like? Bill from NWS Upton was saying it's best to take Euro/GFS compromise track. I had 60mph gusts here in Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 gloria was 965 in CT as a 65 knot cane Wow, thats a low pressure for a cat 1. That is very similar to Bob's pressure and only a bit higher than Carol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yea, in these ne canes, the winds can die down much quicker than the pressure rises...so be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hey guys I am a lieutenant with the madison fire department. I've been following your post for years. But now...... before I meet with emergency management can anyone give me a better idea of damaging winds, not necessarily landfall for Madison CT Ryan ?? U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Noyes saying >100mph gusts possible across SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Excellent point about the jet streak enhanced divergence over Irene when it gets up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Water is warm up to central Jersey so it should be able to remain strong into LI at landfall. Plus it's really accelerating when it gets up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Gibbs says blend of 38 and Floyd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Gibbs says blend of 38 and Floyd 1938 like intensity with a Floyd like track? That would actually work well with the kinds of trends we are seeing today.... except the intensity part, which would probably be a Cat 2. Lee Goldberg said a Floyd track over Jones Beach at Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I haven't seen or read anything about potential impacts for the southern Maine coast. I guess in these latest scenarios Irene will have been over land for a bit before she gets to our latitude, but I'd think that being on the right side of the storm with a lot of south-facing coastline we'd be pretty vulnerable to both wind and surge (and no, not all of Maine's coastline is high rocky cliffs; much of the southern coast is comprised of sandy beaches and inlets). Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Gibbs says blend of 38 and Floyd I'm still kinda skeptical for the interior. I've never gone through a 'cane before. Will this be worse than Feb 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1938 like intensity with a Floyd like track? That would actually work well with the kinds of trends we are seeing today.... except the intensity part, which would probably be a Cat 2. Lee Goldberg said a Floyd track over Jones Beach at Cat 2. No..just blend the two tracks and intensities together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Matt Noyes goes live at 6:40: http://www.mattnoyes...livestream.html I was listening. Some poor weather geek headed back to school asked him what will be the highest gusts on the South Shore and Lyndon VT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I haven't seen or read anything about potential impacts for the southern Maine coast. I guess in these latest scenarios Irene will have been over land for a bit before she gets to our latitude, but I'd think that being on the right side of the storm with a lot of south-facing coastline we'd be pretty vulnerable to both wind and surge (and no, not all of Maine's coastline is high rocky cliffs; much of the southern coast is comprised of sandy beaches and inlets). Thoughts anyone? Weirdly enough, the NY mets (Goldberg) down here were talking about this being a Cat 1 all the way to coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1938 like intensity with a Floyd like track? I just can't see a 1938 type intensity with this storm. Not moving fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No..just blend the two tracks and intensities together That would be a 100 mph storm that makes landfall around Bay Shore, western Suffolk County, close to where Gloria came ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Getting nervous... gonna be in wakefield... don't think im going towards the beach though. Very nervous about what could happen to Westerly and Narragansett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I just can't see a 1938 type intensity with this storm. Not moving fast enough. Me too, but It is kinda scary that major, conservative mets are saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Juju New thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24409-hurricane-irene-discussion-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My WORST Fears - A Hurricane Track West of me. That means Adding the forward speed of the storm to it's wind. Guys.......I'm SCARED!! Really!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Gibbs says blend of 38 and Floyd That's a heck of a range - One thing I am noticing is a trend for a stronger trough into the eastern lakes - this is also reflected in the 18z GFS' depiction of a much faster translating system. It goes from the Va Capes to LI in just 12 hours, then to western Maine in another ... That's approaching azz-hauling speeds. The 18z GFS brings an upper emergency type scenario for much of the area, with flooding over the CT River Valley, and wind issues clear to the southern half of NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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