dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As soon as my wife get home to be with baby I'm going out to scout a new one. We lose power with thunderstorms in my neighborhood never mind a full fledged 'cane. If you want any chance at all of finding one, I would get one ASAP if i was you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Should keep in mind that there will be a stalled front along the coast on Saturday-Sunday so i don't know how far west Irene could get inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know intensity forecasting can be a crap shoot (and of course the track can still change), but NHC currently brings in at strong cat 1 weak cat 2 strength (about Gloria's strength at landfall). I think this is reasonable. Simply not moving fast enough to come in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 why is everyone sicking out about the EURO? Looks like really moderate winds to me, am I wrong? I don't think many people are taking it verbatim...its more that it helps keeps the consensus of all models set on a landfall somewhere in SNE. I agree that verbatim...a landfalling cane in S NJ is not gonna bring any widespread wind damage to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If you want any chance at all of finding one, I would get one ASAP if i was you.. Got one today at Lowe's. So far, there hasn't been a run on 'em. But that's about to change, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Only saving grace I have is a BIG work truck that can make it's own power, with a HUGE inverter....Enough to power my whole house. Other than that, I am fooked in every other aspect. That is a good thing on your part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Neighbor has a generator and I cannot see having one...can't get on web, make calls, watch TV....it's summer it's warm, I have candles, water, canned goods, toilets will work. Go back to old school and live off the land by stealing my neighbors veggies for two weeks. Nam supporting the Euro idea of the stronger ridge, weaker trough...may be like getting a vote of confidence from the Kim Jong-Il, or it may be a sign that we're going to see a marked shift left finally. I vote left, time for a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If you want any chance at all of finding one, I would get one ASAP if i was you.. Heading out in minutes. May as well get propane for the grill and bar oil while I'm out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Macabre, but the "good" news is it's coming. Who it hits the hardest remains to be seen but I think a miss east is off the table. NAM misses it with the trough entirely, does a EURO type deal I think where it will run way west into Jersey. What's amazing is there are noticeable changes at 6h on the 18z and those carry out throughout the run, so position around the 0z hour will be critical as will 0z init. Would appear the threat is shifting west, will see if that holds but I feel better that my house will still be standing Monday am. NAM isn't doing what the Euro is doing...it's doing in a different way. It takes the hurricane too far SW...which seems to be a bias that it has had all along. The NAM does not have the same favorable North Atlantic ridge east and northeast of New England like the Euro does. I would personally look at the NAM for only troughs etc. in the northern stream that could affect Irene...it has little to no use in tracking the hurricane itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anyone see Taunton has added Tropical Storm and Hurricane Conditions Possible across the entire CWA for Sunday and Sunday Night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anyone see Taunton has added Tropical Storm and Hurricane Conditions Possible across the entire CWA for Sunday and Sunday Night? Yep northeast WFOs got them on the 115 afternoon update. Perhaps after a telco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NAM isn't doing what the Euro is doing...it's doing in a different way. It takes the hurricane too far SW...which seems to be a bias that it has had all along. The NAM does not have the same favorable North Atlantic ridge east and northeast of New England like the Euro does. I would personally look at the NAM for only troughs etc. in the northern stream that could affect Irene...it has little to no use in tracking the hurricane itself. At 500mb the NAM just shoved the 588 line way west this run beyond 60+ hours. The trough itself...further north maybe than the earlier run, but the ridge bulging so far west has pushed the storm further west. It may not do it the same way, but two runs in a row now it's jogged west and the last time that happened (at 12z) al the other models followed it. The early 18z on average appeared to have clustered more tightly on the NHC course (5pm version)...and the NHC themselves bumped the track west. Sharper trough like the Euro no, more ridging, yes. NHC track seems pretty reasonable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ehhh. I think some are greatly exaggerating the effects of this for areas west of RI. I l grew up in eastern CT and vividly remember Bob. The forecast intensity at landfall and forecast track are very similar to Bob. Bob was no big deal at my house 40 mi from RI border. Rain and some wind. No power outage or anything. Gloria had a far greater impact than Bob in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Geezus new track is west and right up my work and home fanny, worst case scenario for RI barrier beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ehhh. I think some are greatly exaggerating the effects of this for areas west of RI. I l grew up in eastern CT and vividly remember Bob. The forecast intensity at landfall and forecast track are very similar to Bob. Bob was no big deal at my house 40 mi from RI border. Rain and some wind. No power outage or anything. Gloria had a far greater impact than Bob in CT. Outside of new London county you're right but no two storms are the same and who's to say this follows the exact same track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 New TWC Impact map has catastrophic damage focused on Mt. Tolland, (image modified, not official TWC forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Geezus new track is west and right up my work and home fanny, worst case scenario for RI barrier beaches Hang in there, SteveO. Looks like a bumpy ride up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 5:00 pm track from NHC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 why is everyone sicking out about the EURO? Looks like really moderate winds to me, am I wrong? it kind of says to my untrained eye that the east trend is probably over nhc latest disco took note of it too: THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THEWEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERNEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I really can't believe this is real. Man if we wake up tomorrow and things look like this..we are going to be in for the storm of most of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Did anyone save the 2:00PM track? I'd like to see the differences between the two. 5:00 pm track from NHC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NHC came west? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Did anyone save the 2:00PM track? I'd like to see the differences between the two. I know up here it was further east at the 2:00 pm advisory the low was east of me here and is now over or just west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'll probably hate myself later but I'm kind of getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z WRF is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I really can't believe this is real. Man if we wake up tomorrow and things look like this..we are going to be in for the storm of most of our lives I'm so f*cking excited. If I can get down to Meriden...absolute weenie dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 2pm vs. 5pm NHC tracks 8/24/11: (edit and compare to 2pm 8/23/11): these are from wunderground so midline track not drawn, projected track not so visibly west vs. 2pm: 8/23/11 2pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I really can't believe this is real. Man if we wake up tomorrow and things look like this..we are going to be in for the storm of most of our lives Bingo! And all the folks who stabbed a fork in this thing this morning. This is one for the books, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 * Some already warning of $10 billion-plus disaster Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'll probably hate myself later but I'm kind of getting excited. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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